英國脫歐,這個國家居然成了最大贏家
在都柏林一個清新的冬日,我和當?shù)剀浖鮿?chuàng)公司Intercom的創(chuàng)始人德斯·特雷諾一起在圣斯蒂芬綠地公園漫步。1916年復活節(jié)起義中,這里曾經(jīng)被反叛者作為陣地,現(xiàn)在則是一片安靜而時髦的宜人處所,坐落在一條繁忙商業(yè)街的盡頭。37歲的特雷諾贊頌了愛爾蘭文化的美好:“他們只會叫我們圣人和學者。因為實際情況證明,現(xiàn)在我們需要的就是圣人和學者?!?/p> 我們在公園小路上走著,這位科技創(chuàng)業(yè)者解釋了他為什么相信愛爾蘭最近的經(jīng)濟運勢不會受到英國脫歐的阻礙。他說:“我們真正的才能就是希望,還有善良。我們不會幸災(zāi)樂禍,對于命運如何發(fā)揮作用,我們更多的是茫然。凱爾特之虎讓我們認識到金錢并不適合我們。更確切的說是套利、搶注網(wǎng)絡(luò)域名以及愚蠢金錢的那些蠢行不適合我們?!彼ь^看著一群天鵝在湖上悠閑地游著,然后深吸了一口公園里清新的空氣:“事業(yè)更重要,而不是數(shù)字?!?/p> 文化革命確實幫助愛爾蘭提高了國際吸引力。去年,愛爾蘭通過公投修改了憲法,使墮胎合法化;僅三年前,它也是通過公投將同性婚姻合法化。愛爾蘭政府去年禁止天主教會基于信仰進行招生歧視,而天主教會控制著愛爾蘭90%的學校體系??偫硗呃驴ū旧砭褪巧鐣M步的完美標識,他是同性戀,未婚,還是印度-愛爾蘭混血。在這個1993年才將同性戀合法化的國家,38歲的瓦拉德卡已經(jīng)成為政府首腦。在美國,這相當于第一位黑人總統(tǒng)在1888年,也就是廢除奴隸制后不久就入主白宮。特雷諾說:“那些正在為我們的未來而戰(zhàn)的都是依然記得過去生活的人?!?/p> 不過,愛爾蘭自己并非沒有問題。收入差距正在擴大(Facebook在愛爾蘭的平均年薪為15萬歐元,是愛爾蘭普通工人的三倍)。愛爾蘭37%的外國投資來自于美國,而且仍然容易受到英國經(jīng)濟放緩的影響。同時,英國脫歐對愛爾蘭經(jīng)濟的推動也不會永遠持續(xù)下去。今年2月,歐盟委員會將愛爾蘭今年的經(jīng)濟增長預(yù)期從4.5%下調(diào)至4.1%。罪魁禍首是誰呢?當然是英國脫歐的影響存在不確定性。 |
On a brisk winter day in Dublin, I join Des Traynor, a founder of local business software startup Intercom, for a midday stroll through St. Stephen’s Green. A onetime foxhole for rebels in the 1916 Easter Rising, the public park is now a tranquil and tony oasis at the end of a busy shopping thoroughfare. Traynor, 37, is extolling the virtues of Irish culture: “Nothing but saints and scholars, they called us. As it turns out, saints and scholars are exactly what we need these days.” As we walk along the path, the tech entrepreneur explains why he believes Ireland’s recent economic luck goes beyond a Brexit bump. “Our real talent is hope. And kindness. We don’t gloat, more like bemusement at how fate works its way out,” he says. “The Celtic Tiger had us thinking money didn’t suit us. It was more that arbitrage, marketing, cybersquatting, and the stupidity of stupid money didn’t suit us.” He cocks his head at a bevy of swans idling on a lake and pulls in a whiff of fragrant park air. “There’s more to business than numbers.” A cultural revolution has certainly helped make Ireland more internationally attractive. By referendum, Ireland last year rewrote its constitution to legalize abortion, just three years after it legalized gay marriage, also by referendum. The Irish government last year barred the Catholic Church, which controls 90% of the school system on its behalf, from admissions discrimination on religious grounds. Look no further than Taoiseach Varadkar to mark social progress; he is a gay, unmarried, 38-year-old man of Indian and Irish descent who is the head of government in a country that only decriminalized homosexuality in 1993. In the U.S., this would be the equivalent of the first black president taking office in 1888, not long after the abolition of slavery. “It’s no coincidence,” Traynor says, “that the people fighting for our future here are the ones who can still remember living in its past.” Ireland is, however, not without its problems. Income inequality is worsening. (At 150,000 euros, the average Facebook salary in Ireland is triple that of the average Irish worker.) With 37% of its foreign investment from the U.S., Ireland remains susceptible to an economic slowdown across the pond. And those Brexit-boosted numbers won’t last forever. In February, the European Commission revised downward its growth predictions for Ireland for the year, from 4.5% to 4.1%. The culprit? Uncertainty about the fallout from Britain’s exit from the EU, of course. |