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科技公司崛起靠燒錢?大錯(cuò)特錯(cuò)!

科技公司崛起靠燒錢?大錯(cuò)特錯(cuò)!

黎克騰(Clifton Leaf) 2019年07月18日
蘋(píng)果、Facebook、亞馬遜在成立早期遠(yuǎn)比今天的準(zhǔn)“獨(dú)角獸”們節(jié)儉。

2019年4月30日,F(xiàn)acebook F8會(huì)議在加利福尼亞州圣何塞的麥克內(nèi)里會(huì)議中心舉行,一名與會(huì)者試用新款Oculus Quest。圖片來(lái)源:Amy Osborne—AFP/Getty Images

今年5月底,網(wǎng)約車巨頭Uber提交了上市以后的首份財(cái)報(bào),披露了亮眼的財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù),季度營(yíng)收達(dá)30億美元。但麻煩在于,營(yíng)收數(shù)據(jù)背后的成本達(dá)40多億美元。

Uber的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手Lyft也在今年上市,5月早些時(shí)候,Lyft上市后的首份財(cái)報(bào)中披露的虧損數(shù)字更大?——凈虧損達(dá)11億美元,營(yíng)收為7.76億美元,凈虧損數(shù)字幾乎達(dá)到2018年同期2.34億美元凈虧損的5倍。(也算是一種進(jìn)展。)特斯拉情況差不多,2006年以來(lái)累計(jì)虧損66億美元,然而在投資者推動(dòng)下,公司市值現(xiàn)已達(dá)到400億美元。

企業(yè)想在新經(jīng)濟(jì)時(shí)代中成功就要大手筆花錢,幾乎已經(jīng)變成公理;新興市場(chǎng)正在迅速演變?yōu)橼A家?guī)缀跬ǔ缘木置妫鮿?chuàng)企業(yè)別無(wú)選擇,只能盡快搶占市場(chǎng)份額,擠垮競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手。企業(yè)還得在技術(shù)、營(yíng)銷和頂尖人才方面三管齊下,因?yàn)楫吘固O(píng)果、亞馬遜和谷歌等行業(yè)大佬都是這么做的。

然而事實(shí)并非如此。

這就是《財(cái)富》雜志的肖恩·塔利回顧蘋(píng)果、亞馬遜、谷歌(如今叫Alphabet)和Facebook歷年財(cái)報(bào)之后的發(fā)現(xiàn)?!笆聦?shí)證明,成功的科技公司早年需要大量燒錢的假設(shè)不僅是錯(cuò)誤的,而且是錯(cuò)得離譜?!?他寫(xiě)道。

肖恩計(jì)算了各巨頭的凈現(xiàn)金流(運(yùn)營(yíng)活動(dòng)產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金減去資本支出),發(fā)現(xiàn)谷歌顯然從未有過(guò)負(fù)現(xiàn)金流,令人震驚。與此同時(shí),蘋(píng)果和Facebook也只是短期曾經(jīng)出現(xiàn)過(guò)入不敷出。就連最常被稱為“靠花錢賺錢”之典范的亞馬遜,也遠(yuǎn)比今天的準(zhǔn)“獨(dú)角獸”們節(jié)儉得多。即使凈現(xiàn)金流為負(fù)時(shí),亞馬遜的燒錢率與總銷售額相比也不算大。

正如肖恩的出色分析提供的證明,商業(yè)領(lǐng)域中數(shù)學(xué)最能打破傳統(tǒng)智慧。另一個(gè)例證便是《財(cái)富》雜志7月刊的封面故事,由阿里克·詹金斯撰寫(xiě)有關(guān)虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)沉浮及能否再次興起的精彩故事。五年前,F(xiàn)acebook斥資30億美元收購(gòu)虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)頭盔生產(chǎn)商O(píng)culus時(shí),許多技術(shù)專家似乎都認(rèn)為,虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)將是全球娛樂(lè)的下一步發(fā)展方向。當(dāng)時(shí),風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資本家爭(zhēng)相為虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)初創(chuàng)企業(yè)提供融資,僅2016年便投資逾8.5億美元,結(jié)果卻是市場(chǎng)因?yàn)橄M(fèi)者興趣寥寥而萎靡不振。

該例子同樣可以用數(shù)學(xué)分析:根據(jù)一位行業(yè)觀察人士的說(shuō)法,去年Oculus旗艦版頭盔的出貨量?jī)H為35.4萬(wàn)副,僅為同期索尼PlayStation 4游戲機(jī)1700萬(wàn)臺(tái)出貨量的2%。

為什么會(huì)失敗呢?阿里克解釋道,部分原因是設(shè)備笨重又價(jià)格高昂。但真正的限制因素是,缺乏充分理由吸引人們花高價(jià)購(gòu)買然后戴上笨重的頭盔:應(yīng)用不夠好玩,很少有玩家高頻使用。

然而,情況或許終將改變。根據(jù)阿里克的報(bào)道,虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)已經(jīng)實(shí)現(xiàn)升級(jí)換代,不少開(kāi)發(fā)人員也為該技術(shù)找到了一些企業(yè)層面頗具吸引力的用途。

畢竟,虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)領(lǐng)域確有可能存在大機(jī)會(huì)。但建議先讀一讀阿里克的專題報(bào)道,再?zèng)Q定要不要投身其中。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

本文另一版本登載于《財(cái)富》雜志2019年7月刊,標(biāo)題為《跟著金錢走》。

譯者:馮豐

審校:夏林

At the end of May, when Uber filed its first earnings report as a public company, the ride-hailing titan revealed it had an impressive $3 billion in revenue for the quarter. Trouble is, it had spent just over $4 billion to produce it.

Earlier in that month, Uber’s road rival Lyft, which also went public this year, revealed an even bigger splotch of red ink—$1.1 billion worth, on $776 million in revenue—in its debut quarterly report. That net loss, as it happens, was nearly five times the size of the $234 million hole it had dug in the same period of 2018. (Progress.) And then there’s Tesla, which has lost a cumulative $6.6 billion since 2006. Investors, for their part, are currently rewarding it with a $40 billion market cap.

It has become all but axiomatic that to succeed in the new economy, companies have to spend with abandon; in burgeoning marketplaces that quickly morph into winner-take-most, startups have no choice but to grab whatever share they can, as fast as they can, and box out the competition. They have to triple down on technology, on marketing, on top-tier talent because, after all, that’s what Apple did. And Amazon. And Google.

Except, dear readers, it wasn’t.

That’s what Fortune’s Shawn Tully discovered when he went back through years of financial statements for Apple, Amazon, Google (now Alphabet), and Facebook. “It turns out the assumption that successful tech companies burned lots of cash in their youth isn’t merely wrong—it’s staggeringly wrong,” he writes.

Shawn calculated the free cash flow (cash generated from operating activities minus capital expenditures) of these giants back to their pre-behemoth days and found that Google—quite strikingly—had apparently never been cash-flow negative. Apple and Facebook, meanwhile, had just fleeting periods when they lived beyond their means. And Amazon, which is most-often cited as the exemplar of “spend money to make money,” was also far more frugal than today’s unicorn-chasers realize. Even in the periods when its free cash flow was negative, the burn rate was modest compared with total sales.

In business, as Shawn’s terrific analysis proves out, nothing bursts the conventional wisdom quite like math does. And Exhibit B in this maxim is this issue’s cover story—Aric Jenkins’s wonderful tale of the rise and fall and?…?could it be??…?rise anew of virtual reality. Five years ago, when Facebook shoveled out $3 billion to buy VR headset maker Oculus, it seemed to many of the technoscenti that virtual reality would be the next dimension for global recreation. Venture capitalists rushed to finance VR startups—investing more than $850 million in 2016—only to see the market fizzle for lack of consumer interest.

Again, here’s some math: Last year, Oculus shipped just 354,000 units of its flagship headset, according to one industry watcher—which is equivalent to about 2% of the 17 million or so PlayStation 4 consoles Sony sold during the same period.

Why the fizzle? The clunky gear and the lofty price points played a part, Aric explains. But the real limiting factor was the lack of a good reason to wear that clunky gear and pay those prices: The applications just weren’t engaging enough to absorb players day in and day out.

That may at last be changing, however. As Aric reports, VR has upped its game—and a number of developers have found some compelling enterprise-related uses for the tech, too.

It just may be that virtual reality is the real thing, after all. But I’d suggest you read Aric’s feature before you take that first plunge.

A version of this article appears in the July 2019 issue of Fortune with the headline “Follow the Money.”

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