正如《財(cái)富》雜志在今年4月所述，美國(guó)政府債務(wù)上限這個(gè)話題很有可能比今夏的天氣還熱。

終于，在眾議院議長(zhǎng)南?！づ迓逦骱拓?cái)政部部長(zhǎng)史蒂文·姆努欽會(huì)談后，民主、共和兩黨看來(lái)很快就要達(dá)成協(xié)議，從而將政府債務(wù)觸及上限的時(shí)間推遲到2021年7月。此舉將永久性終結(jié)自動(dòng)減支措施，將年度民用及國(guó)防開(kāi)支總和提高3200億美元，同時(shí)納入7500萬(wàn)美元的開(kāi)支抵銷(xiāo)項(xiàng)，以便減少凈赤字，使政府債務(wù)年增幅略有下降。

要跟上事態(tài)發(fā)展，大家就需要弄清楚下列問(wèn)題。

什么是政府債務(wù)上限？

債務(wù)上限是政府控制美國(guó)負(fù)債規(guī)模的工具。建國(guó)后，美國(guó)的負(fù)債水平一直起伏不定。國(guó)會(huì)在很久以前就不得不對(duì)財(cái)政部的所有借款需求進(jìn)行授權(quán)。

1917年美國(guó)正在為一戰(zhàn)投入巨額資金，此時(shí)國(guó)會(huì)通過(guò)了改變債務(wù)管理方式的法案。財(cái)政部獲得了一攬子授權(quán)，可以通過(guò)債券等多種方式舉債，前提是負(fù)債總額在限定范圍內(nèi)。1939年，國(guó)會(huì)將這樣的思路拓展到了美國(guó)的所有債務(wù)上。

從那時(shí)起，國(guó)會(huì)被迫多次提高債務(wù)上限，以便為政府借貸提供空間。

債務(wù)上限為何持續(xù)上升？

有兩個(gè)原因。一是美國(guó)的支出一直高于其收入。2017年稅法讓這個(gè)問(wèn)題的嚴(yán)重程度遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)擁護(hù)者預(yù)期的水平，本財(cái)年（截至今年10月）美國(guó)的債務(wù)有可能再增加1.4萬(wàn)億美元。

另一個(gè)原因是為原有債務(wù)支付利息。美國(guó)定期滾轉(zhuǎn)現(xiàn)有債務(wù)，目的是維持大多數(shù)負(fù)債。隨著利率上升或者債務(wù)增多，美國(guó)支付的利息總額也在增長(zhǎng)。正如預(yù)算監(jiān)測(cè)機(jī)構(gòu)彼得森基金會(huì)指出的那樣，按照國(guó)會(huì)預(yù)算辦公室的估計(jì)，到2025年債務(wù)利息將成為美國(guó)政府預(yù)算的第三大單項(xiàng)支出。

我們?yōu)槭裁床煌Ｖ菇杩钜詼p少開(kāi)支呢？

美國(guó)的債務(wù)并不是為了今后的支出，相反，它是以前的支出和財(cái)務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)，包括國(guó)家債務(wù)要支付的利息。

大家可以把國(guó)家債務(wù)想象成信用卡賬戶。政府計(jì)劃開(kāi)支，然后收到賬單，包括利息在內(nèi)。而政府的收入不足以支付到期款項(xiàng)，所以才要借錢(qián)。和信用卡不同的是，政府借款還要用于償還以前的信用卡賬單，所以美國(guó)的負(fù)債一直在上升。

如果不提高債務(wù)上限會(huì)怎樣？

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家基本上都認(rèn)為這會(huì)帶來(lái)一場(chǎng)災(zāi)難，只是沒(méi)有人能夠確切預(yù)測(cè)會(huì)出現(xiàn)什么樣的情況。一位前政府雇員曾經(jīng)對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志打比方說(shuō)，那就像是在問(wèn)全世界的核武器一起爆炸會(huì)怎么樣。那會(huì)是人們無(wú)法理解的慘劇嗎？還是說(shuō)它會(huì)消滅所有的生命呢？

可能出現(xiàn)的情況之一是美元遭到擠兌，以及美元作為世界儲(chǔ)備貨幣走向末路，全球市場(chǎng)崩潰，聯(lián)邦政府債務(wù)利率將上升（同時(shí)對(duì)預(yù)算產(chǎn)生影響），政府工作人員和承包商以及享受社保、醫(yī)保的人有可能再也拿不到錢(qián)。簡(jiǎn)單來(lái)說(shuō)就是非常、非常糟糕。

所以債務(wù)上限問(wèn)題會(huì)得到解決？對(duì)吧。

希望如此。大多數(shù)國(guó)會(huì)議員都不希望在這個(gè)問(wèn)題上發(fā)生紛爭(zhēng)，特別是在說(shuō)不清楚誰(shuí)會(huì)因此在政治上受益的情況下。新聞報(bào)道援引特朗普總統(tǒng)的話說(shuō)，白宮和國(guó)會(huì)負(fù)責(zé)人進(jìn)行了“非常好的對(duì)話”。但以前他面對(duì)協(xié)議時(shí)就曾經(jīng)突然改變過(guò)主意。

同時(shí)，一些較保守的議員已經(jīng)表示他們對(duì)削減開(kāi)支的幅度不滿意，而且當(dāng)前協(xié)議在財(cái)政上是不負(fù)責(zé)任的行為。達(dá)到目的前他們會(huì)試圖阻撓協(xié)議嗎？也許吧。

時(shí)間不多了。9月30日前需要敲定預(yù)算，以便政府正常運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)。此外，除了9月初部分違約，財(cái)政部也沒(méi)有什么其他辦法了，而國(guó)會(huì)也會(huì)很快在8月休會(huì)。

這也許一直是個(gè)熱門(mén)話題，但愿較為冷靜的頭腦能夠占據(jù)上風(fēng)。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

As Fortune noted in April, chances were good that the debt ceiling would become a hotter topic than the weather this summer.

Finally, it's looking likely that following talks between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, the parties are close to reaching a deal to extend the debt ceiling through July 2021, permanently end the sequester that can automatically cut spending, raise the combination of both domestic and military spending by $320 billion a year, and include $75 million in spending offsets to bring down net deficit spending so there's just a little less annual contribution to the national debt.

Here's what you need to know to follow the developments.

What is the debt ceiling?

The debt ceiling is a tool government uses to control the amount of debt the country has. The U.S. has dealt with fluctuating debt since its inception. In the far past, Congress had to authorize borrowing by the Treasury for every need.

In 1917—when the country was spending heavily on World War I—Congress passed a law to change debt management. The Treasury received blanket permission to undertake certain types of debt, like bonds, so long as the total stayed within set bounds. Congress expanded the concept in 1939 to cover all total U.S. debt.

Congress has had to repeatedly increase the debt ceiling many times since then to accommodate the amount of borrowing the U.S. has undertaken.

Why does the debt ceiling keep going up?

There are two reasons. One is that the country keeps spending more than it takes in. The 2017 tax bill exacerbated the problem far beyond what its proponents projected, with the amount added this fiscal year (through October 2019) potentially adding another $1.4 trillion.

The other reason is interest payments on previous debt. The U.S. periodically rolls over existing debt to keep most of the owed money outstanding. As interest rates rise, or debt grows, the country pays more total interest. As the budget watchdog Peter G. Peterson Foundation notes, interest on the debt will become the third-largest single "program" in the budget by 2025, according to Congressional Budget Office estimates.

Why don't we end borrowing to reduce spending?

The debt doesn't cover future spending but, instead, previous spending and financial obligations, including interest payments on the national debt.

You can think of the national debt like a credit card account. The country plans spending and then the bills come due, including the interest. There isn't enough money coming in to cover what is due, so the government borrows. Unlike a credit card, the borrowing also occurs to cover previous credit card bills, so the amount keeps adding up.

What would happen without a debt ceiling increase?

Economists largely agree that this would be a disaster, although no one can predict exactly what would happen. One metaphor a former government staffer told Fortune is that it would be like asking what would happen if all the atomic weapons in the world went off at once. Would it be a tragedy beyond comprehension or, instead, would it wipe out all life?

Some of the possible outcomes would be a run on the dollar, the end of the dollar as the world's reserve currency, global market crashes, interest rates on federal debt would raise (along with the impact on the budget), and potentially payments to government workers and contractors as well as Social Security and Medicare and Medicaid recipients could end. Let's just say it would be really, really bad.

So, the debt ceiling will be fixed. Right?

Hopefully. This isn't a fight most people in Congress want, especially as it isn't clear that it would benefit any of them politically. Reports quote President Trump as saying that the White House was having "very good talks" with congressional leaders. But he's suddenly changed his mind before on agreements.

Additionally, some of the more conservative members of Congress have said they are unhappy with the level of spending cuts and that the current deal is not fiscally responsible. Might they try to block an agreement until they get what they want? Maybe.

Time is running out. There needs to be some kind of budget deal by September 30 to keep the government open. Additionally the Treasury officially runs out of options beyond a partial default earlier in September, and Congress is quickly coming up on its August recess.

It's may always be a hot topic, but hopefully cooler heads will prevail.