在蒙托克舉辦的金融頭腦風(fēng)暴大會(huì)已經(jīng)過(guò)了一個(gè)多月。《財(cái)富》雜志對(duì)會(huì)上透露的各類(lèi)信息以及在采訪(fǎng)高管過(guò)程中發(fā)現(xiàn)的重要趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行了梳理。

以下是我們所搜集的最引人注目的預(yù)測(cè)和主題：

1. Facebook的Libra加密貨幣可能會(huì)難產(chǎn)

Facebook在金融頭腦風(fēng)暴大會(huì)舉辦的前一天宣布了Libra項(xiàng)目，自然而然地也就成為了大會(huì)的一個(gè)焦點(diǎn)。但一個(gè)反復(fù)出現(xiàn)的懷疑論斷給參與者的樂(lè)觀主義澆了一盆冷水：這款加密貨幣真能和世人見(jiàn)面嗎？Digital Group的首席執(zhí)行官巴瑞·斯?fàn)柌卦跁?huì)場(chǎng)外向《財(cái)富》雜志透露：“發(fā)行Libra是一個(gè)令人振奮的事情，然而問(wèn)題在于，它是否以及在什么時(shí)候發(fā)行？”

Circle的首席執(zhí)行官杰瑞米·阿萊爾提到，如果一種穩(wěn)定幣并非與單一法幣掛鉤，而是涉及一攬子不同國(guó)家的貨幣，那么打造這類(lèi)穩(wěn)定幣會(huì)遇到監(jiān)管障礙和其他諸多復(fù)雜性。阿萊爾在另一個(gè)采訪(fǎng)中對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志說(shuō)：“我覺(jué)得個(gè)人、企業(yè)和政府最終都得接受這件事情，因此，我們想看看Libra是否能夠推出，及其推出后會(huì)產(chǎn)生什么樣的反響?！?/p>

2. 大銀行的境況沒(méi)有那么糟糕

將自家公司Clarity Money銷(xiāo)售給高盛消費(fèi)銀行Marcus的亞當(dāng)·戴爾如今擔(dān)任Marcus的產(chǎn)品負(fù)責(zé)人，他以其在金融頭腦風(fēng)暴會(huì)議上的精辟言論獲得了不少關(guān)注。他說(shuō)：“現(xiàn)在僅存在兩類(lèi)銀行：一種是已經(jīng)搞砸的銀行，一種是并不知道自己已經(jīng)搞砸了的銀行?！?/p>

但他的雇主高盛似乎并不在這兩類(lèi)之列，而出席大會(huì)的首席執(zhí)行官們所代表的其他大型銀行亦是如此，這些銀行在全球都有著龐大的規(guī)模，資產(chǎn)達(dá)到了數(shù)萬(wàn)億美元。（如果對(duì)比金融科技初創(chuàng)企業(yè)以及互聯(lián)網(wǎng)銀行，我們會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)這些領(lǐng)域的領(lǐng)軍企業(yè)每家也才積攢了不到數(shù)十億美元的身家）?！敦?cái)富》雜志的執(zhí)行編輯賴(lài)新基直接向花旗的首席執(zhí)行官高沛德轉(zhuǎn)述了戴爾的言論，高沛德回答道：“如果你對(duì)此否認(rèn)的話(huà)，那可就真是弄砸了。我想說(shuō)的是，作為一家機(jī)構(gòu)，我們絕對(duì)沒(méi)有矢口否認(rèn)這件事情?！彼€指出，花旗如果還是安于現(xiàn)狀的話(huà)可能就已經(jīng)“完蛋”了，“但我們是一家有著200年歷史的機(jī)構(gòu)，曾經(jīng)經(jīng)歷了多次重構(gòu)，這也是我們當(dāng)前正在做的事情?！备吲娴逻€稱(chēng)自己是區(qū)塊鏈的“堅(jiān)定信仰者”。

參加大會(huì)開(kāi)幕式的美國(guó)銀行首席執(zhí)行官布萊恩·莫伊尼漢還提供了一組生動(dòng)的數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)解釋自家公司不會(huì)落后的原因。他說(shuō)：“我認(rèn)為美國(guó)銀行在區(qū)塊鏈領(lǐng)域的專(zhuān)利比其他任何銀行都多?！?/p>

3. 亞馬遜可能會(huì)進(jìn)軍銀行業(yè)

我的同事駱杰峰在展會(huì)上指出，“亞馬遜有開(kāi)設(shè)一家銀行所需的所有條件?！逼渲械囊粋€(gè)主要條件在于：它與客戶(hù)之間有著緊密的關(guān)系。羅伯特·哈克特表示：“從一些消費(fèi)心理來(lái)看，人們對(duì)亞馬遜的喜愛(ài)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)了其對(duì)銀行的喜愛(ài)。”

然而在大會(huì)上，Amazon Pay的副總裁帕特里克·高迪耶給這個(gè)觀點(diǎn)澆了盆冷水：“我們有能力打造某項(xiàng)業(yè)務(wù)的事實(shí)并不代表我們就應(yīng)該去做這件事情?！比欢?，他并沒(méi)有完全否定亞馬遜在遙遠(yuǎn)未來(lái)的某個(gè)時(shí)間進(jìn)軍銀行業(yè)的可能性，也沒(méi)有嘲笑“亞馬遜只要自己愿意就可以組建銀行”的這個(gè)理念。

第二天，有人問(wèn)花旗的高沛德，如果亞馬遜或其他大型科技公司打造一家有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的數(shù)字銀行，他是否會(huì)感到擔(dān)心。高沛德表示：“我們經(jīng)常被問(wèn)到這個(gè)問(wèn)題。我并不知道這些企業(yè)自身的抱負(fù)或意圖，但我想說(shuō)的是，在我們看來(lái)，這類(lèi)事情并非是必然的，但也不會(huì)因此而輕敵。我們并沒(méi)有輕視亞馬遜，也必然不會(huì)輕視Facebook以及任何擁有數(shù)十億用戶(hù)的公司，我覺(jué)得我們有必要關(guān)注這件事情?！焙苊黠@，大型銀行不會(huì)排除將亞馬遜列為潛在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的可能性。

4. 千禧一代的凈值正在膨脹

多年來(lái)，有關(guān)千禧一代的報(bào)道大都集中于其沉重的學(xué)費(fèi)貸款負(fù)擔(dān)，以及他們與前幾代相比較為悲觀的財(cái)務(wù)前景，因?yàn)槠渲杏泻芏喽籍厴I(yè)于在大蕭條期間或前后。美國(guó)銀行最近的一次計(jì)算顯示，2018年，僅有16%的千禧一代有至少10萬(wàn)美元的存款。

然而在金融頭腦風(fēng)暴大會(huì)上，高管們則描述了一個(gè)不一樣的千禧一代。Wealthfront的首席執(zhí)行官安迪·拉什勒夫說(shuō)：“他們并非一直都待在地下室吞云吐霧。”然后他補(bǔ)充說(shuō)：“他們正處于其人生的財(cái)富積累階段。” Wealthfront是一家智能投資咨詢(xún)公司，其客戶(hù)主要是千禧一代。

嘉信理財(cái)?shù)氖紫瘓?zhí)行官瓦爾特·貝丁格同時(shí)指出，每年中介公司會(huì)接納數(shù)十萬(wàn)千禧一代，而且這些人占到了Schwab新客戶(hù)數(shù)量的一半以上（53%）。這些人的平均凈值？每戶(hù)的家庭資產(chǎn)達(dá)到了35萬(wàn)美元，貝丁格補(bǔ)充道?！耙虼斯井?dāng)前千禧一代客戶(hù)的平均財(cái)富值已經(jīng)達(dá)到了這個(gè)水平。”（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：馮豐

審校：夏林

Now that we’ve had a little more than a month to decompress from our time in Montauk for Brainstorm Finance, we’ve been reflecting on everything we learned and culling the key trends that emerged from our discussions with top executives.

Here are a few of the most salient predictions and themes we gleaned:

1. Facebook may struggle to launch its Libra Cryptocurrency

As Facebook announced its Project Libra the day before Brainstorm Finance kicked off, naturally it was the talk of the conference. But one persistent theme tempered attendees’ optimism: Skepticism that the cryptocurrency could actually get off the ground. “Libra is a very exciting moment when it launches—certainly the question is if and when it’ll launch,” Barry Silbert, the CEO of Digital Currency Group, told Fortune on the sidelines of the conference.

Jeremy Allaire, the CEO of Circle, pointed to regulatory hurdles and other complexities involved with creating a stablecoin backed by not just one fiat currency, but a basket of various nations’ monetary notes. “I think that’s something that both individuals, businesses and governments will have to ultimately get comfortable with, so it’ll be interesting to see if Libra is able to launch and how that’s perceived,” Allaire told Fortune in a separate interview.

2. Big banks aren’t really all that screwed

Adam Dell, who sold his company Clarity Money to Goldman Sachs’s consumer bank Marcus and now serves as its head of product, made some headlines with his pithy comments at Brainstorm Finance: “There are only two kinds of banks— there are banks that are screwed, and banks that don’t know they are screwed,” he said.

But his employer, Goldman Sachs, didn’t seem to fall into either category, nor did the other big banks that were represented by their CEOs at the conference, with their vast global scale and trillions of dollars in assets. (Compare that to fintech startups and challenger banks, where even the leading companies have yet to amass more than a few billion each.) Fortune executive editor Adam Lashinsky put Dell’s comments directly to Citi CEO Michael Corbat, who responded, “You’re screwed if you’re in denial. and I would say as an institution we’re absolutely not in denial.” Citi would be “dead” if it stuck to the status quo, he added, “But we’re a 200-year-old institution that’s reimagined itself several times, and we are very much in that process today.” Corbat also described himself as a “true believer” in blockchain technology.

Bank of America, whose CEO Brian Moynihan opened the conference, also offered a telling statistic to illustrate why his company wouldn’t be left behind: “We have more blockchain patents I think than anybody else does now,” he said.

3. Amazon could come for banks

As my colleague Jeff Roberts put it on this show, “Amazon has all the ingredients to be a bank.” One main ingredient: Its close relationship with customers. Added Robert Hackett, “If you look at some of the consumer sentiment, people like Amazon way more than they like their banks.”

At the conference, though, Patrick Gauthier, vice president of Amazon Pay, threw cold water on the idea: “The fact that we can build something doesn’t mean that we should,” he said. Still, he didn’t entirely rule out a banking foray sometime further off in the future—nor did he scoff at the idea that Amazon could very well build a bank if it wanted to.

The following day, Citi’s Corbat was asked whether he feared that Amazon or another big tech company would build a competing digital bank. “It’s a question we get asked frequently,” Corbat acknowledged. “I don’t know their ambition or intentions per se, but what I would say is, we don’t take anything for granted and we’re not dismissive. We’re not dismissive of Amazon, I'm sure we’ll get to Facebook—anybody who’s got a couple billion users, I think you need to pay attention to.” It’s clear the big banks aren’t writing off Amazon as a potential competitor one day.

4. Millennials’ net worths are bulging

For years, the popular narrative around the millennial generation has been that their heavy student debt burdens and the fact that many of them graduated during or around the Great Recession would condemn them to a dimmer financial outlook than prior generations. At Bank of America’s last count, in 2018, only 16% of millennials had saved at least $100,000.

At Brainstorm Finance, though, executives painted a different picture of millennials. “They’re not all sitting in their basements smoking weed all the time,” said Andy Rachleff, the CEO of Wealthfront, a robo-advisor whose customers are primarily millennials. And, he added, “They’re in the wealth accumulation phase of their lives.”

Walt Bettinger, the CEO of Charles Schwab, meanwhile, said that hundreds of thousands of millennials are now flocking to the brokerage annually, and make up more than half (53%) of Schwab’s new accounts. Their average net worth? $350,000 in household assets, Bettinger added. “So the average millennial we’re winning has that level of affluence today already.”