如果你等這一天已經(jīng)等了好幾個(gè)月了，等靴子真正落地時(shí)你一定不會(huì)感到奇怪。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)于7月30日宣布將聯(lián)邦基金利率下調(diào)25個(gè)基點(diǎn)，即降低0.25%，市場(chǎng)反應(yīng)平靜。不過(guò)，來(lái)自于聯(lián)邦基金期貨市場(chǎng)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，從幾個(gè)星期以前，每一個(gè)投資者就已經(jīng)預(yù)料到至少會(huì)有這個(gè)降幅。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)不可能突然降息?！安蝗还墒邢碌娘L(fēng)險(xiǎn)太高?！?Stuart Estate Planning Wealth Advisors的總裁克雷格·科斯諾表示。盡管美國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)相對(duì)強(qiáng)勁，但“你要受制于市場(chǎng)的反應(yīng)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)不能讓市場(chǎng)失望?！?/p>

同樣，降息50個(gè)基點(diǎn)似乎也不太可能?！氨M管歷史上一個(gè)新周期的第一次降息幅度往往是0.5%，但這樣做很容易讓金融市場(chǎng)懷疑美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)掌握了一些不為人知的內(nèi)幕卻遮遮掩掩，因而感到恐慌?！盞eel Point首席經(jīng)濟(jì)顧問(wèn)、前美國(guó)財(cái)政部和白宮國(guó)家安全委員會(huì)職員史蒂文·斯坎克表示，“聯(lián)邦基金利率下調(diào)25個(gè)基點(diǎn)并不會(huì)對(duì)借款人產(chǎn)生實(shí)質(zhì)性的影響，但具有重要的象征意義，說(shuō)明美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)正在采取行動(dòng)，從而避免當(dāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)一步放緩時(shí)被指責(zé)不作為?！?/p>

然而，斯坎克說(shuō)，這次降息之后很可能會(huì)至少再降0.25%，“作為一項(xiàng)安全保險(xiǎn)措施”。

一些分析師和顧問(wèn)甚至想知道，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾此前的講話(huà)中，為何要費(fèi)心發(fā)出降息信號(hào)。經(jīng)濟(jì)似乎一直運(yùn)行良好。

但長(zhǎng)期關(guān)注美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的經(jīng)濟(jì)指數(shù)協(xié)會(huì)（Economic Index Associates）的主席兼首席執(zhí)行官羅伯特·約翰遜說(shuō)，這種觀點(diǎn)十分短視?！拔覀兊慕?jīng)濟(jì)是在全球環(huán)境下運(yùn)行的?！彼f(shuō)，“你看，全球利率如此之低，我們必須把這點(diǎn)考慮在內(nèi)?！痹谶^(guò)去幾年里，一些央行有時(shí)甚至?xí)O(shè)置負(fù)利率，付錢(qián)給銀行爭(zhēng)著給他們劃撥貸款，目的是為了刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)。

許多人都期待好年景能夠持續(xù)，至少持續(xù)一段時(shí)間，“在過(guò)去幾年里，世界一直有點(diǎn)奇怪。”外匯專(zhuān)業(yè)公司Halo Financial的創(chuàng)始董事戴維·約翰遜說(shuō)，“美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)——也就是央行為國(guó)際投資者提供了最低的貸款利率，而且實(shí)際上也提供了更高的收益率，比歐洲、澳洲、亞洲、英國(guó)都高，因此當(dāng)美國(guó)和中國(guó)之間的貿(mào)易摩擦、中東局勢(shì)和英國(guó)脫歐爭(zhēng)議的態(tài)勢(shì)趨緊時(shí)，人們甚至更容易決定把資金投入美國(guó)。”

“我認(rèn)為還有很多未知因素?！奔s翰遜說(shuō)，例如，“我們不知道這些貿(mào)易談判的結(jié)果?！辟Q(mào)易摩擦仍在繼續(xù)且懸而未決。其他國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)不一定像美國(guó)表現(xiàn)一樣好。如果一些國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)開(kāi)始下滑，可能會(huì)影響全球經(jīng)濟(jì)，阻礙美國(guó)的發(fā)展。

因此，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)選擇了唯一可行的道路：在不作為和采取更激進(jìn)的措施之間選擇中庸。這仍然留下了一個(gè)明顯的潛在危險(xiǎn)：如果出現(xiàn)嚴(yán)重的金融收縮，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能不再有足夠的空間來(lái)提供大幅降息，因此無(wú)法借此刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)正常運(yùn)行。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Agatha

It’s hard to be surprised when you’ve been expecting it for months.

After the Federal Reserve’s announcement on July 30 that it would lower its basic interest rate by 25 basis points—a 0.25% cut—markets were calm. But then, data from the Fed funds futures market has suggested that for weeks 100% of investors already expected at least that much.

There was no way the Fed would have scuttled a cut. “The risk of a stock market drop would be too high,” said Craig Kirsner, president of Stuart Estate Planning Wealth Advisors. Even though economic news in the U.S. has been relatively strong, “you are beholden to the market’s reaction and the Fed can’t disappoint.”

Similarly, a 50-basis-point cut seemed unlikely. “Although the first cut in a new cycle historically has been 0.5%, this easily could frighten financial markets about what the Fed knows but isn’t saying,” said Steven Skancke, chief economic advisor for Keel Point and former U.S. Treasury and White House National Security Council staff member. “Not that a quarter-point reduction in the Fed Funds rate makes a material difference to borrowers, but it seems to have symbolic importance that the Fed doing something, lest it be blamed for inaction if the economy slows further.”

However, chances seem likely that this cut will be followed by at least 0.25% cut “as a measure of safety and insurance,” Skancke said.

Some analysts and advisers went gone so far as to wonder why the Fed bothered signaling a cut at all in previous remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The economy seems to have been moving along well enough.

But that view is short-sighted, said Robert Johnson, chairman and CEO of Economic Index Associates and long-time Fed watcher. “We are operating in a global environment,” he said. “When you see interest rates globally that are as low as they are, we have to take that into account.” Some central banks have at times over the last few years even set negative interest rates, paying banks to lend them money in an attempt to stimulate their economies.

And a lot of people are depending on the good times to continue, at least for a while “The world has been in a slightly odd place for the past few years,” said David Johnson, founding director of foreign exchange specialist Halo Financial. “The U.S. Federal Reserve; historically the central bank that offered the cheapest lending rates for international investors, has actually been offering higher yields than Europe, Australia, Asia, and the U.K. So, when global tensions between the US and China, in the Middle East and over the UK’s EU membership have raised their heads, the movement of funds into US assets was an even easier decision.”

“I think there are a lot of unknowns out there,” Johnson said. “We don't know the outcome of these trade talks” for example. Trade wars are still unresolved and ongoing. Other national economies aren’t necessarily seeing the performance of the U.S. If some begin to falter, that could affect the global economy and hinder things in the U.S.

And so, the Fed took the only path available: moderation between doing nothing and a more aggressive path. That still leaves one clear danger: If there is a major financial contraction, the Fed may no longer have enough working room to provide a rate cut large enough to stimulate the economy back into working order.