當(dāng)下一次衰退不可避免地到來(lái)時(shí)，情況會(huì)有多糟？

這是我們?cè)?月中旬的《財(cái)富》頭腦風(fēng)暴金融大會(huì)間歇期間向首席執(zhí)行官、投行人士以及科技公司高管提出的一個(gè)問(wèn)題。答案多種多樣，有人擔(dān)心會(huì)出現(xiàn)災(zāi)難性的崩潰，也有人沉著地認(rèn)為根本不用擔(dān)心經(jīng)濟(jì)。

就在美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)謹(jǐn)慎地慶祝自己持續(xù)了10年，或者說(shuō)美國(guó)史上最長(zhǎng)的增長(zhǎng)期之時(shí)，越來(lái)越多的人開(kāi)始問(wèn)，這個(gè)繁榮期到什么時(shí)候會(huì)結(jié)束。近期的潛在放緩跡象也已經(jīng)讓投資者感到不安。比如，美國(guó)商務(wù)部的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，今年第二季度美國(guó)GDP增長(zhǎng)了2.1%，低于第一季度3.1%的增幅。

幾位首席執(zhí)行官認(rèn)為全球貿(mào)易問(wèn)題將是造成美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)最終崩盤(pán)的因素之一。西聯(lián)匯款的首席執(zhí)行官賀博睿說(shuō)，唐納德·特朗普總統(tǒng)治下的貿(mào)易沖突體現(xiàn)出了貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義的政治環(huán)境，這“對(duì)企業(yè)不利”。他指出：“商品的流通可以創(chuàng)造就業(yè)，資金的流動(dòng)也可以創(chuàng)造就業(yè)”，鼓勵(lì)此類(lèi)流動(dòng)的政策“一定會(huì)擋住衰退的步伐”。

Silicon Valley Bank的首席執(zhí)行官克雷格·貝克爾的看法和賀博睿相同，他認(rèn)為貿(mào)易問(wèn)題以及與之相伴的全球增長(zhǎng)放緩將成為經(jīng)濟(jì)最終下滑的根源。他描述下一次衰退就像是“自殘?jiān)斐傻膫凇薄?/p>

貝克爾說(shuō)：“這將會(huì)是一次感知引發(fā)的衰退?！彪S著擔(dān)心經(jīng)濟(jì)滑坡的人增多，他們將“停止支出”，進(jìn)而引發(fā)他們擔(dān)心的衰退，這很有諷刺意味。

本次金融大會(huì)的參與者顯然都想到了衰退的可能性。美國(guó)運(yùn)通的企業(yè)發(fā)展負(fù)責(zé)人麗薩·馬爾凱塞說(shuō)：“我們都在談?wù)撍ネ??！北M管話題令人愁?lèi)?，但馬爾凱塞仍然樂(lè)觀地認(rèn)為企業(yè)和政府已經(jīng)想出了“如何應(yīng)付經(jīng)濟(jì)下行的主動(dòng)策略，而不是被動(dòng)的”那些。

馬爾凱塞認(rèn)為，“經(jīng)歷了2008和2009年”，也就是上一場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)嚴(yán)重衰退，“我們覺(jué)得世界變得更聰明了?！比藗兤毡檎J(rèn)為那場(chǎng)危機(jī)是大蕭條以來(lái)最嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)滑坡，次級(jí)按揭貸款吹出來(lái)的房地產(chǎn)泡面破裂加速了它的到來(lái)。

高盛的消費(fèi)銀行業(yè)務(wù)主管哈里特·塔爾瓦也認(rèn)為，和10年前聯(lián)邦政府需斥資數(shù)千億美元救助多家銀行相比，這次華爾街的準(zhǔn)備將更為充分。他說(shuō)：“我確實(shí)覺(jué)得銀行業(yè)有了更多資金，目前所處的位置可能也好于以往。”

IBM區(qū)塊鏈項(xiàng)目出售的軟件用所謂的分布式賬本跟蹤食品、資金及其他資產(chǎn)。該項(xiàng)目的總經(jīng)理瑪利·維克強(qiáng)調(diào)了新開(kāi)發(fā)的技術(shù)可能怎樣應(yīng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)滑坡。她說(shuō)：“我們有了更好的裝備，比如AI、區(qū)塊鏈和其他機(jī)制，它們真的可以幫助我們更快地發(fā)現(xiàn)波動(dòng)性并且真的采取應(yīng)對(duì)措施?！边@樣的新技術(shù)有助于“發(fā)現(xiàn)和防范，乃至減輕”對(duì)市場(chǎng)的“一些影響”。

但并不是每個(gè)人對(duì)未來(lái)的展望都這么樂(lè)觀。在線零售商O(píng)verstock.com的首席執(zhí)行官帕特里克·拜恩就很不看好今后的情況。他說(shuō)：“我覺(jué)得情況不妙。坦率講，我們認(rèn)為2008年只是餐前的開(kāi)胃點(diǎn)心?！?/p>

拜恩長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)一直很熱心于加密貨幣，他把自己對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的展望比作承載了過(guò)多汽車(chē)的橋梁。拜恩說(shuō)：“這有點(diǎn)兒像問(wèn)我，一座橋的設(shè)計(jì)通行能力是20輛轎車(chē)，而現(xiàn)在上面有100輛車(chē)開(kāi)過(guò)，它什么時(shí)候會(huì)斷？什么時(shí)候會(huì)倒塌？那就是真正的答案?！?/p>

拜恩還指出：“增長(zhǎng)持續(xù)了這么長(zhǎng)時(shí)間讓我有點(diǎn)兒吃驚。我覺(jué)得深深埋藏在美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)中的結(jié)構(gòu)性、構(gòu)架級(jí)問(wèn)題將顯現(xiàn)出來(lái)?！保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

When the next recession inevitably strikes, how bad will it be?

That was one of the questions we posed to CEOs, bankers, and tech executives on the sidelines of Fortune’s Brainstorm Finance conference in Montauk, N.Y., in mid-June. The query provoked responses ranging from fears of a cataclysmic collapse to calm dismissal of any economic angst.

As the U.S. economy cautiously cheers on 10 years of growth, the longest period of expansion in American history, people are increasingly asking when the boom-times will come to an end. Recent signs of a potential slowdown—the national output of goods and services grew 2.1% last quarter, down from 3.1% in the first quarter, according to the Commerce Department—has also raised investors’ unease.

Several CEOs cited global trade issues as a factor contributing to a possible, eventual meltdown. Hikmet Ersek, CEO of Western Union, said that the protectionist political environment, as manifested in trade conflicts under President Donald Trump, is “bad for business.” He noted that “when goods move jobs are created, and when money moves jobs are created,” and he said that policies encouraging such mobility “will definitely hinder recession.”

Greg Becker, CEO of Silicon Valley Bank, echoed Ersek in pinpointing trade issues and a concomitant slowdown in global growth as root causes of an eventual downturn. He described the next recession as likely to be “a self-inflicted wound.”

“It’ll be a perception-created recession,” Becker said. As more people fear an economic pullback, they will “pause spending” and thus, ironically, create the recession they feared, he said.

The possibility of a recession was clearly on people’s minds at Fortune’s financial summit. “We’re all talking about it,” said Lisa Marchese, head of corporate development at American Express. Despite the glum chatter, Marchese remained optimistic that companies and governments have been thinking through “proactive strategies for how to manage in a downturn, as opposed to reactive” ones.

“I think we’re a smarter world for having been through 2008, 2009,” when the last major economic downturn struck, Marchese said. That crisis, generally regarded as the worst economic slump since the Great Depression, precipitated when a housing bubble fueled by subprime mortgages went bust.

Harit Talwar, head of consumer banking at Goldman Sachs, agreed that Wall Street will be better prepared this time around versus a decade ago when many banks needed bailing out to the tune of hundreds of billions of federal dollars. “I do think that the banking industry has more capital—is more well-positioned—today than, perhaps, it has been earlier,” he said.

Marie Wieck, general manager of IBM’s blockchain program, which sells software that tracks food, money, and other assets on so-called distributed ledgers, emphasized how newly developed technologies could counter a downturn. “We are better equipped with A.I. and blockchain and other mechanisms that can actually help us detect volatility more quickly and actually react to it,” she said. Such new technologies can help “detect and prevent—dampen—some of the impacts” on the market, she said.

But not everyone’s vision of the future was so rosy. Patrick Byrne, CEO of online retailer Overstock.com, sounded an ominous note for the years ahead. “I think it will be bad,” he said. “To be honest, I think that ’08 was the hors d’oeuvres course.”

Bryne, a longtime cryptocurrency enthusiast, compared what he expects will happen to the economy to what might happen to a bridge overloaded with too many vehicles. “It’s a little bit like asking me there’s a bridge that was designed to hold 20 cars passing over it at a time and there’s now 100 going over it,” Byrne said. “When’s it going to break? When’s it going to collapse? That’s really your answer.”

“I’m kind of shocked it’s gone on this long,” Byrne continued. “I think that we have deep, deep, structural, architectonic level problems in our economy that will surface.”