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房利美前任首席執(zhí)行官:新經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)對房價影響不大

房利美前任首席執(zhí)行官:新經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)對房價影響不大

Robert Hackett 2019-09-02
梅耶珀羅斯說,自大蕭條以來,貸款的質(zhì)量已經(jīng)有所改善,而且借貸決策也有更多更好的數(shù)據(jù)可供參考,因此系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險得以降低。

當(dāng)美國的房產(chǎn)泡沫在2007年破滅時,隨之而來的信貸危機(jī)在全球掀起了長達(dá)數(shù)年的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退潮。如今,有鑒于緊張的國際貿(mào)易局勢以及全球增長的放緩,“經(jīng)濟(jì)蕭條可能即將來臨”成為了熱議的話題。人們想知道,經(jīng)濟(jì)下行對房地產(chǎn)市場會造成什么樣的影響。

房利美的前首席執(zhí)行官蒂姆·梅耶珀羅斯對此持樂觀態(tài)度,該抵押貸款巨頭為三分之一的美國住宅提供資助。他在最新一期《平衡分類賬戶》專欄(Balancing The Ledger)中對《財富》雜志的羅伯特·哈克特和簡·韋茲內(nèi)透露:“相對于10年前,我對當(dāng)前房地產(chǎn)市場的現(xiàn)狀和價格并沒有那么擔(dān)心?!薄镀胶夥诸愘~戶》是財富的一檔欄目,報道金融與科技的交叉領(lǐng)域。

梅耶珀羅斯說:“從房地產(chǎn)市場的角度來看,我認(rèn)為當(dāng)下一場經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)到來時,我們將能夠很好地經(jīng)受住考驗(yàn)。”他在今年年初受聘擔(dān)任舊金山金融科技初創(chuàng)企業(yè)Blend的總裁,該公司致力于制作銀行軟件。(梅耶珀羅斯于2018年10月離開房利美,此前曾經(jīng)擔(dān)任該公司首席執(zhí)行官6年,總法律顧問3年。)

梅耶珀羅斯說,自大蕭條以來,貸款的質(zhì)量已經(jīng)有所改善,而且借貸決策也有更多更好的數(shù)據(jù)可供參考,因此系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險得以降低,但10年前并不是這樣。

梅耶珀羅斯說:“我在信貸危機(jī)期間加入了房利美,我可以確認(rèn)的是,公司資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表上有1800萬美元的房貸,但我們很難理解它們實(shí)際上都是什么貸款,因?yàn)槠渲械拿恳还P貸款都有數(shù)百頁的書面報告,但我們實(shí)際所掌握的數(shù)據(jù)與我們想要的數(shù)據(jù)相距甚遠(yuǎn)。”

梅耶珀羅斯說,自己當(dāng)前的雇主Blend致力于幫助富國這類銀行實(shí)現(xiàn)抵押貸款申請流程的數(shù)字化,也正在維修此前受損的系統(tǒng)。公司正在讓金融公司“真正依賴數(shù)據(jù)而不是文件?!?/p>

Blend的首席執(zhí)行官及聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人尼瑪·格哈姆薩里與梅耶珀羅斯一道參加了《平衡分類賬戶》欄目。他說,房地產(chǎn)市場和他的業(yè)務(wù)正處于上升期。Blend的私下估值略低于10億美元。

格哈姆薩里說,抵押貸款“利率如今真的很合適”。他還指出,“我們看到,公司平臺在再融資領(lǐng)域出現(xiàn)了不小的增長?!彼J(rèn)為主要原因在于美聯(lián)儲于7月削減了利率。

格哈姆薩里說:“我是在過去兩年于Blend工作期間申請了自己的第一筆抵押貸款。我覺得自己應(yīng)該有能力在今后很長一段時間內(nèi)來逐漸償還這筆貸款。”

格哈姆薩里預(yù)計(jì),基于分布式數(shù)據(jù)庫的熱門科技區(qū)塊鏈將讓消費(fèi)者在未來獲得更大的財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)掌控權(quán)。他說:“這個領(lǐng)域可能在未來18至24個月內(nèi)會發(fā)生異常迅速的變化,而且它有可能在未來五年之內(nèi)變?yōu)橹髁?。?/p>

與此同時,購房者的年齡段也會發(fā)生變化。梅耶珀羅斯稱:“有色人群將在今后幾十年中成為新購房者的主力軍?!?/p>

與主流觀點(diǎn)相反的是,千禧一代也將考慮為自己找一個家。梅耶珀羅斯說:“千禧一代感興趣的房子并不一定是時髦的城市公寓。他們實(shí)際上希望居住在他們自小長大的那種郊區(qū)房屋?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng))

譯者:馮豐

審校:夏林

When the U.S. housing bubble burst in 2007, the resulting credit crunch helped kick off a global, years-long economic downturn. Now, as international trade tensions and slowing global growth spur talk of a possible, impending recession, people are wondering, how might such a slump affect the real estate market?

Tim Mayopoulos, the former chief executive of Fannie Mae, the mortgage giant that finances roughly a third of American homes, is sanguine about the situation. “I’m much less worried about the state of housing and home prices than I was 10 years ago,” he told Fortune’s Robert Hackett and Jen Wieczner on the latest episode of Balancing The Ledger, Fortune’s show covering the intersection of finance and technology.

“I think when the next recession comes, we'll be able to weather that actually pretty well, from a housing market perspective,” said Mayopoulos, who at the start of the year became president of Blend, a San Francisco-based financial tech startup that makes software for banks. (Mayopoulos left Fannie Mae in October 2018 after a six-year tenure at the helm, plus three additional years as general counsel.)

Since the Great Recession, loans have improved in quality and lending decisions have been based on more and better data, reducing systemic risk, Mayopoulos said. That wasn’t the case a decade ago.

“I was joining Fannie Mae right as the crisis was hitting, and I can confirm that, you know, with 18 million mortgage loans on our balance sheet, it was very hard for us to understand actually what was in those loans, because for every one of those 18 million loans we had hundreds of pages of paper, but we didn't really have nearly as much data as we wanted to have,” Mayopoulos said.

Mayopoulos’s current employer, Blend, which digitizes mortgage application processes for banks such as Wells Fargo, is repairing a system that was formerly broken, he said. The company is getting financial firms “to really rely on data instead of documents.”

Nima Ghamsari, CEO and cofounder of Blend, which is privately valued just under $1 billion, also joined Mayopoulos on Balancing The Ledger. He said that the housing market—and his business—is booming.

Mortgage “rates are really good right now,” Ghamsari said. “We're seeing a big uptick in refinances on our platform,” he noted, citing the Federal Reserve’s July decision to cut interest rates as a major contributing factor.

“I, personally, got my first mortgage while I was at Blend in the last two years, and it was something that I think, hopefully, I'll be able to hold onto for a long time,” Ghamsari said.

Blockchains, a buzzy technology based on distributed databases, will give consumers more control over their financial data in the years to come, Ghamsari predicted. “That's probably a space that's going to evolve pretty quickly over the next maybe 18-24 months, and hopefully it'll become mainstream in the next five years,” he said.

Meanwhile, the demographics of homebuyers will shift too. “Communities of color will actually be the largest proportion of new home buyers in coming decades,” Mayopoulos said.

Contrary to popular belief, millennials will also be looking to plant roots. “The kinds of homes [millennials] are interested in are not necessarily the hip urban apartment,” Mayopoulos said. “They actually want to live in suburban homes like the ones that they grew up in.”

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