特朗普上臺以來，CNC Machines公司一直在過好日子。

這家位于佛羅里達(dá)州的私營公司主營全新和二手?jǐn)?shù)控金屬制造設(shè)備，主要客戶是美國中小企業(yè)，也包括初創(chuàng)企業(yè)和財(cái)富500強(qiáng)企業(yè)。

“這個(gè)行業(yè)相當(dāng)保守，”首席執(zhí)行官科特·多爾蒂說，“大選結(jié)束后，行業(yè)信心一飛沖天。人們不再像以前那么擔(dān)心。他們開始愿意花錢招人?！?/p>

以及購買設(shè)備。但是，往年夏天的行業(yè)淡季卻變持續(xù)下去，成為常態(tài)，他自己的信心也開始崩潰，這讓多爾蒂想起了2008年?！?月到年底的行情通常會大漲，”他說，“但現(xiàn)在只有正常水平的一半?！彼麄兊母偁帉κ忠脖硎久媾R同樣的情況。

整個(gè)制造業(yè)都在放緩，衡量制造業(yè)實(shí)力的采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)（PMI）8月跌至49.1，為2016年1月以來的最低水平。低于50被認(rèn)為是行業(yè)萎縮的跡象，對整體經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響可能更大。

美國制造業(yè)可能正在衰退，該行業(yè)雇傭了近1300萬美國人，而且薪資水平還不錯(cuò)。

制造業(yè)對美國私營部門的重要性超乎尋常。根據(jù)美國經(jīng)濟(jì)分析局（Bureau of Economic Analysis）的數(shù)據(jù)，私營企業(yè)為美國經(jīng)濟(jì)每創(chuàng)造7美元，就有近1美元來自制造業(yè)。

制造業(yè)是美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的一大引擎，力量相當(dāng)可觀?！暗拇_，制造業(yè)要經(jīng)歷長期深度下滑才會拖垮整體經(jīng)濟(jì)，但他們確實(shí)可以做到?！盩S Lombard首席美國經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家史蒂夫·布里茨表示，“要知道，正是制造業(yè)帶領(lǐng)美國走出了（2008年）衰退?！?/p>

受影響的不只是美國制造業(yè)。全球制造業(yè)都面臨壓力。8月，中國制造業(yè)的PMI指數(shù)降至49.5。與此同時(shí)，歐元區(qū)制造業(yè)的PMI為47，該地區(qū)最強(qiáng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體德國的PMI指數(shù)為43.5。

三個(gè)因素對美國制造業(yè)的影響尤其顯著。第一個(gè)因素眾所周知——關(guān)稅，關(guān)稅正在推高來自中國的零部件和原材料的成本。“按照我們目前征收的關(guān)稅來看，如果你的利潤和大多數(shù)制造商一樣微薄，你或許可以暫時(shí)消化這些關(guān)稅，”負(fù)責(zé)計(jì)算美國PMI指數(shù)的美國供應(yīng)管理協(xié)會（Institute for Supply Management）的首席執(zhí)行官湯姆·德里表示，“很多跡象表明，很多公司都想這么賭一把。但現(xiàn)在征稅商品的數(shù)量增加了，關(guān)稅水平也提高了，這種操作就不可行了?！?/p>

德里發(fā)現(xiàn)，許多企業(yè)都在試圖將供應(yīng)渠道拓展至中國以外，但這種轉(zhuǎn)變可能要拖上18到24個(gè)月，才有可能對公司經(jīng)營產(chǎn)生明顯影響。對于許多年銷售額小于等于10億美元的中型制造商來說，打破供應(yīng)鏈實(shí)在太浪費(fèi)時(shí)間了。

排在第二位的是疲軟的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)——不僅是中國和德國，還有那些農(nóng)業(yè)和建筑業(yè)發(fā)達(dá)的國家?！斑@對迪爾公司（John Deere）和其他類似公司來說可不是好兆頭，”德里說。

最后，經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩以及世界其他地方的負(fù)利率促使投資者前往美國尋求避風(fēng)港以及更高的回報(bào)率，這對美國公司在國外的直接投資造成了傷害。資本流動推高了對美元的需求，使得美國公司相較于全球競爭對手的競爭力下降。例如，CNC的海外訂單已經(jīng)開始枯竭。

“其他產(chǎn)品可以替代（美國貨），”德里說，“你可以從歐洲供應(yīng)商那里購買類似的設(shè)備。我們可能是搬起石頭砸了自己的腳?！?/p>

觀察衰退時(shí)，PMI并非唯一指標(biāo)。例如，美聯(lián)儲的制造業(yè)產(chǎn)出指數(shù)在2018年12月至2019年7月下降了1.5%以上。“我們現(xiàn)在看到的是全球制造業(yè)生產(chǎn)整體放緩。”克萊姆森大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授、系主任斯科特拜爾說，“（截至2019年5月），工業(yè)生產(chǎn)增長約2%，恰好是一年前增速的一半。有跡象表明，經(jīng)濟(jì)正在放緩，所以我們預(yù)計(jì)就業(yè)率會下降?！?/p>

對于CNC來說，這就像一下子回到了2008年?！艾F(xiàn)在還早，所以我不知道歷史是否會重演，”多爾蒂說，“上一次用了一年半到兩年的時(shí)間。我們必須重新恢復(fù)創(chuàng)造力，努力開辟新的渠道?！?/p>

他對經(jīng)濟(jì)不會長期低迷抱有希望。“我們?yōu)榇似矶\。”多爾蒂說，“但我們也會堅(jiān)持下去，懷抱最好的希望?！保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Agatha

Up until now, the Trump years have been good ones for CNC Machines.

The privately-owned Florida company sells new and used computer-controlled metal manufacturing equipment, mostly to small and mid-sized U.S. companies, but also to startups and members of the Fortune 500.

"The industry is pretty conservative," said CEO Curt Doherty. "After the election, confidence skyrocketed. People weren't as afraid. They were willing to spend money and hire employees."

And buy equipment. But his own confidence began to fizzle when a usually seasonal summer slowdown turned into an ongoing rut, one that reminds Doherty of 2008. "September through the end of the year, we usually see a huge uptick," he said. "We're seeing about half of what's normal." His competitors are telling him the same thing.

The entire manufacturing sector is seeing a slowdown, with the August Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), an indicator of manufacturing strength, falling to 49.1, the lowest since January 2016. Below 50 is considered a sign of contraction for the sector, and maybe worse for the economy as a whole.

American manufacturing may be in decline, but the sector employs nearly 13 million Americans and the wages are decent.

Manufacturing has out-sized importance to America’s private sector. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, nearly one out of every seven dollars the sector generates for the economy comes from manufacturing.

Manufacturing is an engine with impressive power. "It takes a really deep and longer decline in manufacturing to pull down the overall economy, but you can get there," says Steve Blitz, chief US economist at TS Lombard. "Remember, it was manufacturing that led the country out of the [2008] recession."

It's not just U.S. manufacturing that's hurting. Global activity in the sector has been under pressure. In August, China's manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.5. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone was 47, with that of Germany, the region's strongest economy, at 43.5.

Three factors in particular are squeezing American manufacturing. The first is well known – tariffs, which are driving up costs of components and materials from China. "With the tariffs we've imposed, if your margins are pretty tight, and for most manufacturers they are, you could absorb them temporarily," said Tom Derry, CEO of the Institute for Supply Management, which calculates the U.S. PMI numbers. "We saw a lot of indications that companies were making that bet. Now that the number of goods has increased, and the level of the tariffs has gone up, that's no longer operable."

Derry has seen many companies trying to diversify their supply links beyond China, a switch that can drag on for 18-24 months before it has any noticeable impact on the business. For many mid-sized manufacturers, ranging up to $1 billion in sales, that’s just too much of a time-dump to bother with tearing up the supply chain.

Second on the list is the weakening global economic picture—not just China and Germany, but those with major agricultural and construction activity. "It doesn't bode well for John Deere and companies like that," Derry said.

Finally, slowing economies and negative interest rates elsewhere in the world have sent investors to the U.S. in search of safety and better returns, putting the hurt on direct foreign investment abroad. The movement of capital drives up demand for dollars, making American companies less competitive to their global rivals. CNC, for one, has seen overseas orders dry up.

"There are alternatives [to U.S. products]," Derry said. "You can purchase similar equipment from European suppliers. We may have shot ourselves in the foot."

For recession-watchers, PMI isn’t the only indicator to consider. The Federal Reserve's measure of manufacturing output, for example, has fallen more than 1.5% between December 2018 and July 2019. "What we're seeing now globally is a slowdown of manufacturing production," said Scott Baier, a professor of economics and department chair at Clemson University. "Industrial production has grown about 2% globally [as of May 2019], which is exactly half the rate a year ago. There are indications that the economy is slowing down, so what we'd expect to see is a dip in the hiring rate."

For CNC, it's like a time warp—straight back to 2008. "It's early, so I don't know if it's going to be the same yet," Doherty said. "That last one was over a good year and a half to two-year period. We have to go back to being creative again, figuring out new channels."

He's hopeful a long downturn is not in the cards. "We've got our fingers crossed," Doherty said. "But we'll hold on tight and hope for the best."