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蘇富比私有化就能提振銷售?

蘇富比私有化就能提振銷售?

Peter S. Green 2019-09-16
業(yè)內專家表示,蘇富比私有化可能會改變市場格局。

2019年7月17日在倫敦蘇富比舉辦的“勇敢新愿景:改變英國藝術界的流亡者”展覽中一瞬。圖片來源:Getty Images/Sotheby's

如何才能把古老且勞動密集型的知名品牌變成賺錢機器?這是法國電信業(yè)大亨帕特里克·德拉希面臨的挑戰(zhàn)。兩周前,他獲得了蘇富比股東的批準,將通過價值37億美元的交易把將歷史長達275年的拍賣行私有化。

蘇富比發(fā)表聲明稱,德拉希及其家人全資擁有的BidFair USA發(fā)起收購要約,91%股東投票支持。德拉希的出價為每股57美元,較蘇富比6月14日也就是其宣布董事會同意與BidFair合并前一天的收盤價溢價61%。

據(jù)《華爾街日報》報道,德拉希宣稱收購資金中15億美元由自己提供,其余部分則將通過融資解決。另外,他將承擔蘇富比現(xiàn)有的10億美元債務。

對德拉希來說,這筆收購交易相當于踏上一段不尋常的旅程。之前他最出名的是在法國建立負債累累的有線電視和手機“帝國”,過去四年向美國市場滲透。在藝術界,德拉希是個相對低調的收藏家,喜歡收藏畢加索和馬蒂斯等20世紀藝術大師的作品,但并非紐約著名晚間拍賣會的??汀?/p>

在電信行業(yè),德拉希以降低工資精簡運營來削減成本而聞名,但這在蘇富比可能很難實現(xiàn)。藝術拍賣領域的知名評論員,也是博客Culturegrrl.com的作者李·羅森鮑姆表示,激進投資者者丹·勒布已經分走了蘇富比很大一塊利潤,他麾下的對沖基金Third Point LLC持有蘇富比約14.3%股份,而且推動了蘇富比賣給德拉希的交易。蘇富比去年的銷售額為63.5億美元,利潤為1.08億美元,而私有狀態(tài)的競爭對手佳士得聲稱去年總銷售額為70億美元,未公布利潤數(shù)據(jù)。

業(yè)內專家表示,私有化可能會改變市場格局。

“總給人一種不公平的感覺,因為佳士得是私人公司,運作方式能略做調整。我們在市場上聽到過類似抱怨,”紐約著名藝術顧問阿比蓋爾·阿舍說。

世界上很多筆大額藝術品交易時,都由拍賣行向委托人保證最低售價,如果藝術品賣不到保證的價格,拍賣行不僅會損失金錢,還會損失聲望,影響未來的成交機會。

蘇富比上市過兩次:一次是從1977年到1983年,另一次是從1988年直至最近。羅森鮑姆表示,蘇富比轉變?yōu)樗饺顺止晒局螅壬鲜袪顟B(tài)能承受更多風險,為高價拍賣品達成更多幕后交易,但與佳士得競爭意味著本來就很低的利潤率可能面臨更大壓力。“業(yè)務量肯定會提升,”她說道,“但利潤能否增加還不好說?!保ㄌK富比拒絕對本文置評。)

中美貿易戰(zhàn)可能影響蘇富比的業(yè)務,如果中國藝術品在美國出售,或者中國買家在美國購買藝術品都將被征收新關稅,羅森鮑姆說道。同時,隨著英國退歐和經濟減速的陰霾迫近,歐洲客戶特別是英國客戶很可能會擔心大額交易,她補充道。

冒險者

蘇富比私有化交易就像一張名片,德拉希借此與法國零售業(yè)大亨弗朗索瓦·皮諾平起平坐,皮諾是佳士得拍賣行的老板。根據(jù)彭博億萬富豪指數(shù),皮諾財富約330億美元,德拉希為107億美元。

不過,德拉希最終也可能蒙受損失,就像另一位法國億萬富翁,也是該國首富的伯納德·阿爾諾一樣(彭博估測其身家為979億美元),阿爾諾是奢侈品制造商路威酩軒的董事長。1999年阿爾諾曾買下菲利普斯拍賣行,有報道稱期間由于一系列災難性的拍賣交易而損失了數(shù)億美元,三年后只得轉手賣掉。

德拉希的名聲和財富都來自注冊地在荷蘭的Altice NV公司,該公司擁有法國最大有線電視服務提供商Numericable的70%股份,還擁有法國第二大移動電話公司SFR。他在2015年移居美國,出資91億美元(包括債務)收購了圣路易斯有線電視運營商Suddenlink的70%股份。次年,他又斥資177億美元收購了紐約有線電視運營商Cablevision,從而讓Altice成為美國最大的有線電視運營商之一。

德拉希旗下公司負債累累,但通過裁員和技術創(chuàng)新,以及敢于押下重注,大幅提高了營業(yè)利潤率。市場研究公司Wolfe Research的電信分析師馬西·里維克表示,有線電視服務方面,德拉希為實現(xiàn)高速光纜入戶花費了巨資。

“他是個真正的企業(yè)家,”里維克向《財富》雜志表示,“他總能找到可以實現(xiàn)差異化和競爭優(yōu)勢的業(yè)務,然后經營得更好。他聘請的都是他認為可以做出正確決策的人,而且很敢于冒險?!?/p>

準備好迎接顛覆

要想下注蘇富比這筆交易不虧,德拉??赡艿弥卣囆g品拍賣業(yè)務。

“問題在于很多業(yè)務都歷史悠久,所以他們對1萬美元的拍品跟1000萬美元的拍品處理方式沒什么兩樣,太瘋狂了,”一位藝術行業(yè)專業(yè)人士表示,為了不影響商業(yè)關系,該人士要求不具名?!暗绻麑嶋H上想走科技的路子,做這筆交易可能是很聰明的。”

這位業(yè)內人士表示,蘇富比的目標市場是向全球“大眾富裕階層”出售價值5000美元至10萬美元的收藏品。蘇富比可以利用互聯(lián)網技術尋找目標拍品和買家,并用悠久的歷史品牌吸引客戶。

蘇富比拍賣行的平均拍賣品價格約為9000美元,100萬美元以上的拍賣品只占交易量的2%,但占收入的40%。蘇富比面臨的挑戰(zhàn)是如何既不增加成本又能提高銷售額。削減成本是德拉希的專長,可以大展拳腳。

“蘇富比和佳士得都是嚴重被低估的品牌,從來沒有舉債,”這位業(yè)內專業(yè)人士說道。

藝術顧問阿舍表示,德拉希的真正目標可能是將所謂的“蒂凡尼模式”引入蘇富比。蒂芙尼是總店位于紐約第五大道的著名珠寶商,以自家豪華銀餐具和鉆石首飾為靈感開發(fā)了新品銀質幸運手鏈,后來進賬不少。

如今,蘇富比能否在不沖淡品牌的前提下,利用聲望銷售低價拍賣品呢?

“如果你在全球有一眾粉絲,非常了解品牌,也知道你向來只賣美好的商品,消費者都是美女和精英,” 阿舍說道?!澳敲茨惝斎豢梢约右恍]那么昂貴的商品,前提得能保證品牌聲譽安全。”

從某種意義上說,先例不是沒有:2004年將蘇富比國際房地產公司出售給不動產服務提供商Reology后,根據(jù)交易中授權協(xié)議,去年蘇富比獲得了1090萬美元收入。(財富中文網)

譯者:艾倫

審校:夏林

How do you turn an ancient, labor-intensive prestige brand into a money machine? That’s the challenge facing French telecommunications mogul Patrick Drahi, who on Thursday won approval from shareholders of Sotheby’s to take the 275-year-old auction house private in a transaction worth $3.7 billion.

The offer by BidFair USA, a vehicle owned entirely by Drahi and his family, was backed by 91% of shareholders who voted on it, Sotheby’s said in a statement. Drahi offered $57 a share, a 61% premium to the stock’s market price on June 14, the day before Sotheby’s announced that its board had agreed to merge with BidFair.

Drahi has said he will finance the purchase with $1.5 billion of his own money and the rest with debt, according to a Wall Street Journal report. He’ll be assuming Sotheby’s existing $1 billion debt.

The purchase is a curious departure for Drahi, who’s best known for building a debt-laden cable and mobile phone empire in France before moving into the U.S. market over the past four years. In the art world, Drahi is a relatively modest collector of 20th century masters, including Picasso and Matisse, and is not a fixture at New York’s famed evening auctions.

Drahi is known in the telecom business for cost-cutting that shrinks payrolls and streamlines operations. That may be difficult to achieve at Sotheby’s. Activist investor Dan Loeb, whose Third Point LLC held about 14.3% of Sotheby’s and pushed for the sale to Drahi, has already rendered much of the fat from its operations, says Lee Rosenbaum, a prominent commentator on the art sale scene, and the author of the blog Culturegrrl.com. Sotheby’s made a profit of $108 million last year on sales of $6.35 billion, while privately held rival Christie’s, which doesn’t report its profits, claimed total sales last year of $7 billion.

Going private could change that, say industry experts.

“There was always this sense that it was an uneven playing field because Christie’s is a private company and therefore able to maneuver in a slightly different way. That was the complaint we heard in the marketplace,” says Abigail Asher, a prominent art consultant based in New York.

Many of the world’s biggest art deals involve auction houses guaranteeing a minimum sale price to consignors. When the art fails to sell at the guaranteed price, auction houses lose not just money, but the prestige that brings further sales.

Sotheby’s has gone public twice: once from 1977 to 1983, and then again in 1988. As a privately held company, Sotheby’s could take greater risks and cut more backroom deals for big-ticket auction lots than it could as a public company, says Rosenbaum, but the competition with Christie’s means already-low margins could face more pressure. “It will certainly do more business,” she says, “but I don’t know if it will make more profits.” (Sotheby’s declined to comment for this article.)

The U.S.-China trade war could hurt business, says Rosenbaum, particularly given new tariffs on Chinese art brought to the U.S. for sale and on Chinese buyers of art in the U.S. Meanwhile European customers, particularly in Britain, are likely to be nervous about making big-ticket purchases with the looming specter of Brexit and an economic slowdown, she adds.

A Daring Man

As a calling card, the Sotheby’s purchase puts Drahi in the same league as French retail magnate Fran?ois Pinault, who owns Christie’s and has a fortune of about $33 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. Drahi weighs in at $10.7 billion.

Drahi could end up like another French billionaire, Bernard Arnault, the country’s richest man (with $97.9 billion, estimates Bloomberg) and chairman of luxury goods maker LVMH. Arnault bought the Phillips auction house in 1999 and reportedly lost hundreds of millions of dollars in a series of disastrous sales before selling it three years later.

Drahi made his name and fortune with Dutch-registered Altice NV, which owns 70% of France’s largest cable provider, Numericable, and the second largest French mobile phone company, SFR. He moved into the U.S. in 2015, buying a 70% stake in Suddenlink, a St. Louis-based cable operator, for $9.1 billion (including debt). The next year, he bought New York-based operator Cablevision for $17.7 billion to turn Altice into one of the largest cable operators in the U.S.

Drahi has piled debt on his companies but also increased operating margins significantly through a mix of layoffs and technical innovation—and a willingness to make big bets. In the case of cable, says Marci Ryvicker, a telecom analyst at Wolfe Research, Drahi spent big to bring high speed fiberoptic cable directly to homes.

“He is a true entrepreneur,” Ryvicker tells Fortune. “He finds businesses where he has a differentiated and competitive advantage, and he tries to operate them better. He hires the people he feels can make the right decisions and he’s a risk taker.”

Poised for Disruption

For his bet to pay off with Sotheby’s, Drahi may have to reinvent the art auction business.

“The problem is these are historical businesses, so they handle a $10,000 object like they handle a $10 million object, which is crazy,” says one art industry professional who asked not to be named to preserve active business relationships. ”But if he wants to do what is in effect a tech play, then it may be a very smart deal.”

Sotheby’s target market, the industry professional says, is selling collectibles worth $5,000 to $100,000 to the “mass affluent” around the globe. The auction house uses Internet technology to target objects and buyers and lures them in with its storied brand.

The average lot price at Sotheby’s is about $9,000. Lots over $1 million account for only 2% of volume but 40% of revenue. A challenge for Sotheby’s is to increase sales without increasing costs. That’s where Drahi’s expertise in cost-cutting may come in.

“Sotheby’s and Christie’s are incredibly undervalued brands that haven’t been leveraged,” says the industry professional.

That, says Asher, the art consultant, may be Drahi’s real aim: taking what might be called the Tiffany model, after the prestigious Fifth Avenue jeweler that made a fortune selling silver charm bracelets that carry the aura of Tiffany’s grand silver tableware and diamond jewelry, to Sotheby’s.

Can the auction house leverage its prestige at a lower price point without diluting the brand?

“You’ve got a captive worldwide audience that knows the name and the brand and that it sells things of beauty to the beautiful and the elite,” says Asher. “You, too, can be a part of that brand at a less expensive level—but with the security of the brand name.”

There is precedent, of a kind: Sotheby’s took in $10.9 million last year from a licensing agreement that was part of its 2004 sale of Sotheby’s International Real Estate to Reology.

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