全球?qū)ι程匕⒗氖偷降子卸嘁蕾嚕?/p>

本周一，這成了全球石油市場(chǎng)想問的諸多問題之一。上周六，Abqaiq煉廠和Khurais油田遭到襲擊，兩處均為沙特原油生產(chǎn)中心。此次襲擊不僅凸顯了該地區(qū)日益加劇的緊張形勢(shì)，也及時(shí)提醒了人們沙特對(duì)全球石油市場(chǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)有多大——此次襲擊影響到了該國(guó)一半左右的出口能力，約占全球大約5%的原油供應(yīng)。

最近幾個(gè)月以來，沙特的石油基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施遭受了多起襲擊，這只是最新的一起，但是最嚴(yán)重的一起。地緣政治形勢(shì)持續(xù)緊張，再加上新供應(yīng)存在不確定性，導(dǎo)致周一早些時(shí)候油價(jià)暴漲20%，創(chuàng)下20世紀(jì)80年代以來的最大日內(nèi)漲幅，隨后略有回落。周一早上布倫特原油價(jià)格還是上漲了11%左右，有望創(chuàng)下兩個(gè)月新高。

引人注目的數(shù)據(jù)里，隱藏著石油生產(chǎn)重心的持續(xù)轉(zhuǎn)移：能源咨詢公司Rystad的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，頁巖油行業(yè)繁榮發(fā)展多年之后，美國(guó)石油供應(yīng)在全球供應(yīng)總量中所占比例現(xiàn)已達(dá)到將近10%（不到10年前僅為1%左右），預(yù)計(jì)到2030年產(chǎn)量將達(dá)到峰值。

How dependent is the world on Saudi Arabian oil?

That's one of the many questions global oil markets are asking on Monday, after Saturday's attacks on the Abqaiq oil refinery and the Khurais oilfield, the heart of the Kingdom's crude production. The attacks highlight not just the rising tensions in the region, but serve as a timely reminder of the scale of Saudi's contribution to global oil markets—they knocked out about half the country's export capacity and around 5% of the world's crude supply.

Alongside the geopolitical tensions—this is only the latest, but most severe, of several attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure in recent months—the fresh supply uncertainty sent oil prices bucking, rising as much as 20% earlier on Monday—the largest inter-day jump since the 1980s—before coming off slightly. On Monday morning, Brent was still up by around 11%, putting it on track for a two-month high.

But buried in those headline figures is an ongoing power shift: years into the shale boom, U.S. oil now makes up nearly 10% of the world's oil supply (up from about 1% less than a decade ago), with production forecast to peak in 2030, according to energy consultancy Rystad.

與此同時(shí)，美國(guó)2015年結(jié)束長(zhǎng)達(dá)40年的原油出口禁令之后，還經(jīng)常變成凈出口國(guó)，每個(gè)月的情況都有所不同。例如，根據(jù)原油行業(yè)監(jiān)控機(jī)構(gòu)“聯(lián)合組織數(shù)據(jù)倡議”的數(shù)據(jù)，今年6月份美國(guó)的原油出口量在全球總出口量中占比為12%左右，不過仍舊遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于原油出口量占23%的沙特阿拉伯。

“想找到能替代（每日）出口超過500萬桶的沙特阿拉伯，還差得很遠(yuǎn)，” 奧斯陸能源調(diào)查公司Rystad Energy的石油市場(chǎng)研究主管Bj?rnar Tonhaugen說道，“在美國(guó)頁巖油蓬勃發(fā)展的新時(shí)代，市場(chǎng)對(duì)沙特阿拉伯的重要性認(rèn)識(shí)正經(jīng)受考驗(yàn)?！?/p>

從一定程度上來說，這也是考驗(yàn)美國(guó)在必要時(shí)能否做到短期內(nèi)擴(kuò)大出口。Tonhaugen指出，如果要填補(bǔ)市場(chǎng)缺口，美國(guó)是少數(shù)幾個(gè)可以大幅提高原油出口量的國(guó)家之一，最多可以提高100萬桶/日，而目前的出口量約為300萬桶/日。（Rystad估計(jì)，俄羅斯、阿聯(lián)酋、科威特和伊拉克也可以提高產(chǎn)量，但是規(guī)模趕不上美國(guó)。）

然而，即便其他產(chǎn)油國(guó)提升產(chǎn)量，也沒法完全抵消沙特出口量突然下降的影響。

“此事的影響和下一步行動(dòng)將取決于供應(yīng)中斷多久，”咨詢公司W(wǎng)ood Mackenzie的研究總監(jiān)Vima Jayabalan 說道，“沙特阿拉伯有足夠的儲(chǔ)備填補(bǔ)下周的缺口，但如果停產(chǎn)持續(xù)下去，想找到品質(zhì)相當(dāng)?shù)脑吞钛a(bǔ)缺口可能存在挑戰(zhàn)?！?/p>

沙特阿拉伯約四分之三的原油出口都面向亞洲客戶，也已保證將用大量緩沖庫(kù)存來履行合同，有些庫(kù)存存放在沙特阿拉伯國(guó)內(nèi)，有些存放在荷蘭、埃及和日本。因此，短缺問題能否真正解決最終要看沙特阿拉伯修復(fù)受損設(shè)施的速度，短期內(nèi)油價(jià)上漲并不是關(guān)鍵。

與此同時(shí)，另一個(gè)課題也值得持續(xù)思考，即世界是否將像過去一樣需要那么多的沙特石油。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：艾倫

審校：夏林

Meanwhile, since ending a 40-year ban on exporting crude in 2015, the U.S. has also frequently become a net exporter, though this varies month to month. In June of this year, for example, the U.S. was the source of about 12% of global crude exports, according to the Joint Organizations Data Initiative—though still far less than Saudi Arabia, with 23% of crude exports that month.

"The world is not even close to being able to replace more than 5 million [barrels per day] of Saudi Arabian exports," said Bj?rnar Tonhaugen, head of oil market research at Rystad Energy in Oslo. "The market’s reaction to Saudi Arabia’s importance, in the new era of U.S. shale, will now be put to the test."

That's, in part, a test of whether the U.S. can and will scale up exports in the short-term, if necessary. Tonhaugen notes that the U.S. is one of the only countries that can dramatically ramp up crude exports—even by as much as 1 million barrels per day, from around 3 million barrels per day at present—if needed to fill a gap in the market. (Russia, the UAE, Kuwait and Iraq could also increase output, Rystad estimates—but not at the same pace.)

However, that's still not enough to completely take the bite out of a sudden drop in Saudi exports.

"The impact and the next course of action will depend on the duration of the outage," said Vima Jayabalan, research director at consultancy Wood Mackenzie. "Saudi Arabia has enough reserves to cover the shortfall over the next week, but if the outage extends, then filling the gap with the right type of crude quality could be a challenge."

Saudi Arabia has assured customers—around three quarters of its exports go to Asia—that it will meet contracts, by relying on large stock cushions parked not just in the country, but in storage in the Netherlands, Egypt and Japan. So a genuine shortage—rather than just a price hike—will ultimately be a question of how quickly Saudi Arabia can fix the damage.

The lingering lesson, meanwhile, will be whether the world needs Saudi oil quite as much as it used to.