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衰退和蕭條有何區(qū)別?讓歷史告訴我們

衰退和蕭條有何區(qū)別?讓歷史告訴我們

Ben Carlson 2019-10-04
衰退和蕭條已經(jīng)成為不同程度的經(jīng)濟(jì)滑坡的代名詞,但其實(shí)它們的差別并無(wú)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)定義。

今天我們對(duì)整體“經(jīng)濟(jì)”的認(rèn)知仍是一個(gè)較新鮮的事物。實(shí)際上,作為衡量經(jīng)濟(jì)增速的現(xiàn)代概念,國(guó)民生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)一直到大蕭條之后才出現(xiàn)。

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家西蒙·庫(kù)茲涅茨因在這個(gè)領(lǐng)域中的研究而獲得了諾貝爾獎(jiǎng)。1934年,庫(kù)茲涅茨在向美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)提交的報(bào)告中用國(guó)民收入這個(gè)概念來(lái)追蹤經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)。GDP就是由這個(gè)概念蛻變而來(lái),但直到二戰(zhàn)結(jié)束前,它還不是世界各國(guó)采用的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)方法。

只要可以衡量經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出,經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家就有可能回過(guò)頭去計(jì)算此前的滑坡給經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)的損害。

19世紀(jì)出現(xiàn)過(guò)18次經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,6次恐慌,或者說(shuō)蕭條。美國(guó)國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)研究局有紀(jì)錄的時(shí)間最長(zhǎng)的GDP收縮期為65個(gè)月,從1873年10月到1879年3月,這被稱為“長(zhǎng)期蕭條”。與之相比,1929-1932年的大蕭條持續(xù)了43個(gè)月。

19世紀(jì)初土地價(jià)格由盛轉(zhuǎn)衰后,恐慌進(jìn)入了經(jīng)濟(jì)詞典,指的是造成巨大崩潰的投機(jī)性經(jīng)濟(jì)階段。在整個(gè)19世紀(jì),人們一直用‘恐慌’來(lái)描述如今被稱為蕭條的情景。政府官員覺(jué)得他們需要一些不那么讓公眾警覺(jué)的詞匯,就這樣,衰退和蕭條開始成為不同程度的經(jīng)濟(jì)滑坡的代名詞。

衰退vs.蕭條

衰退和蕭條的差別并無(wú)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)定義,但蕭條一般指經(jīng)濟(jì)收縮的幅度較大,而且時(shí)間較長(zhǎng)。如果用以往的六次衰退和六次蕭條進(jìn)行比較,二者區(qū)別一目了然。以下是美國(guó)曾經(jīng)出現(xiàn)的六次衰退:

The whole idea of "the economy" as we know it today is still a relatively new phenomenon. In fact, the modern concept of gross domestic product (GDP) as a way to measure economic growth wasn't developed until the aftermath of the Great Depression.

Simon Kuznets, an economist who won the Nobel Prize for his work in this area, put forth a report to Congress in 1934 using a concept called national income to track economic activity. GDP was bourne out of this idea but it wasn't the standard method used by countries around the globe until the end of WWII.

Once economists were able to measure economic output they could go back to calculate the damage previous downturns had on the economy.

In the 1800s there were 18 recessions in addition to 6 panics or depressions. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) lists the longest GDP contraction on record as 65 months in length which was from October 1873 to March 1879 in what is known as the Long Depression. In comparison, the Great Depression of 1929-1932 was 43 months long.

After a land price boom-bust in the early 1800s, the word panic entered the lexicon and was used to describe speculative economic episodes that resulted in a spectacular collapse. The term ‘panic’ was used for the remainder of the century to describe what is now termed a depression. Government officials decided they needed something that was less alarming to the public which is how the terms recession and depression came to be used to describe economic downturns of varying severity.

Recession vs. Depression

There is no standard definition of the difference between a recession and a depression but depressions are typically more severe in terms of the magnitude and length of the economic contraction. If we compare the past six recessions with the past six depressions, the distinction becomes clear. Here are the past six U.S. recessions:

而這是以往美國(guó)的六次蕭條(其中一些在當(dāng)時(shí)被稱為恐慌):

And the past six U.S. depressions (some of which were called panics at the time):

衰退會(huì)持續(xù)多長(zhǎng)時(shí)間?

此前的六次衰退中,GDP平均降幅為2.5%,持續(xù)時(shí)間平均為12個(gè)月。而以往六次蕭條的GDP平均降幅為28.5%,平均持續(xù)時(shí)間為22個(gè)月。值得注意的是,其中多次蕭條,或者說(shuō)恐慌出現(xiàn)之際,美國(guó)或多或少還是一個(gè)新興市場(chǎng)。在19世紀(jì)和20世紀(jì)早期,經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)差不多和股市一樣起伏不定。相比之前,現(xiàn)在經(jīng)濟(jì)要成熟得多,但股市仍表現(xiàn)出與之類似的波動(dòng)性。

如今,專家和職業(yè)投資人都在將目前的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況和1929年秋天,也就是大蕭條即將到來(lái)時(shí)的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)相比。任何用大蕭條來(lái)進(jìn)行類比的人對(duì)歷史的理解都不夠深刻。即使是2007-2009年的嚴(yán)重金融危機(jī)也無(wú)法和二戰(zhàn)前的那些經(jīng)濟(jì)滑坡相提并論,而且那場(chǎng)危機(jī)不知因何并未演化成全面衰退。

然而,一些較小的國(guó)家依然能感受到恐慌,或者說(shuō)蕭條的痛楚。比如說(shuō),2008-2013年希臘GDP下跌了26%,失業(yè)率飆升至近30%。這兩個(gè)數(shù)字都比美國(guó)的大蕭條更為嚴(yán)重。

對(duì)大多數(shù)個(gè)人的經(jīng)濟(jì)處境來(lái)說(shuō),這些經(jīng)濟(jì)定義可能不那么重要。小幅衰退對(duì)某些人來(lái)說(shuō)可能像是一個(gè)機(jī)會(huì),但對(duì)其他人而言則是一次蕭條。這完全取決于人們的工作、家庭以及財(cái)務(wù)狀況。

美國(guó)的“經(jīng)濟(jì)”價(jià)值超過(guò)20萬(wàn)億美元。我們對(duì)這臺(tái)巨型機(jī)器的認(rèn)知往往被個(gè)人感受所左右,在經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張和收縮時(shí)都是如此。

對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)來(lái)說(shuō),沒(méi)有什么是不可能的,因?yàn)槲覀儗?duì)未來(lái)局勢(shì)一無(wú)所知,但我們可以指出的一個(gè)事實(shí)是,現(xiàn)在美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)比過(guò)去要穩(wěn)定得多。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

本·卡爾森是特許金融分析師,在Ritholtz Wealth Management擔(dān)任機(jī)構(gòu)資產(chǎn)管理業(yè)務(wù)主管。

譯者:Charlie

審校:夏林

How long do recessions last?

The average GDP contraction over the past six recessions was -2.5%, lasting 12 months on average. The average GDP contraction over the past six depressions was -28.5%, lasting 22 months on average. It is worth noting that the United States was more or less an emerging market when many of these depressions and panics occurred. Economic activity was nearly as volatile as the stock market during the 19th century and early part of the 20th century. The economy is far more mature now while the stock market still exhibits similar levels of volatility.

There are pundits and professional investors alike these days who evoke comparisons between today's economy and what began in the fall of 1929 prior to the onset of the Great Depression. Anyone making Great Depression analogies hasn't read enough history books. Even the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2009, which somehow didn't morph into an all-out depression, looks tame when compared to economic downturns in the pre-WWII era.

There are, however, smaller countries that can find themselves in the throes of a panic or depression. Greece, for instance, saw GDP decline 26% from 2008-2013 and unemployment spike to nearly 30%. Both of these figures were worse than what the U.S. experienced during the Great Depression.

For most individuals, these economic definitions likely don't matter all that much for their personal situation. A shallow recession can feel like an opportunity for some but a depression for others. It all depends on the context in terms of your job, family, and financial situation.

"The economy" in the United States is worth more than $20 trillion. Our feelings about this massive machine are often swayed by our own personal experiences with it, which is true of both economic expansions and downturns.

Nothing is impossible when it comes to the economy because we have no idea what the future holds but we can say for a fact that the U.S. economy is much more stable now than it was in the past.

Ben Carlson, CFA is the Director of Institutional Asset Management at Ritholtz Wealth Management.

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