行業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，由于公共健康相關(guān)的警告，近幾周來，電子煙的銷量增速已經(jīng)跌至一年半以來的最低點，而香煙銷售額的下滑在上個月已經(jīng)略有緩和。

Cowen公司的分析師薇薇安·艾澤援引尼爾森公司（Nielsen）的數(shù)據(jù)寫道，電子煙的銷售額在截至10月5日的四周內(nèi)同比增長25.5%。至少從2018年8月起，該品類每月漲幅都超過50%，相較之下，這是巨大的下滑。

根據(jù)美國疾病控制和預(yù)防中心（Centers for Disease Control and Prevention）上周發(fā)布的報告，公眾期望美國監(jiān)管方遏制飽受歡迎的電子煙產(chǎn)品的熱銷，以解決它們對未成年吸煙者營銷的問題。此外，最近一種肺部疾病也導(dǎo)致了近1,300人感染，26人死亡，這些都減緩了電子煙的增長速度。

Cowen的艾澤寫道：“電子煙相關(guān)的疾病讓銷售額隨之明顯下滑?！迸c前一個月相比，電子煙的美元銷售額減少18.4%，銷售量減少14.3%。Cowen的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，JUUL連續(xù)第三個季度虧損，以美元計算的市值縮水64%。

據(jù)彭博情報（Bloomberg Intelligence）報道，類似的，IRI的數(shù)據(jù)也表明電子煙的銷售額增長“在監(jiān)管審查力度加大的情況下迅速剎車”。截至10月6日的四周內(nèi)，電子煙的零售銷售額增長30%，較之截至9月8日的四周的60.8%有明顯下滑。彭博情報的分析師肯·謝伊表示：“越多越多的州和地方開始禁止電子煙產(chǎn)品，給銷售額帶來了影響?！?/p>

另一方面，Cowen的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，香煙銷量的下滑趨勢有所緩和，近四周內(nèi)跌幅只有6.2%，在此之前的12周為6.9%。艾澤寫道，過去23個月里，香煙的銷售額在一路下滑。

富國銀行（Wells Fargo）的分析師邦尼·赫爾佐克在一份照會中寫道，最近美國食品與藥品管理局（FDA）相關(guān)的新聞和“對電子煙越來越負(fù)面的認(rèn)知”是否可能導(dǎo)致“電子煙煙民回歸”傳統(tǒng)香煙，從而促進(jìn)改進(jìn)型可燃香煙的銷量，“目前還言之尚早?！?/p>

盡管如此，分析師認(rèn)為香煙市場會出現(xiàn)反彈。富國銀行維持預(yù)測，認(rèn)為今年香煙行業(yè)的銷量會下跌6%。赫爾佐克寫道，盡管“食品與藥品管理局對e-cig和JUUL電子煙采取的舉措可能會引發(fā)消費(fèi)者反應(yīng)并帶來利好”。

彭博情報的分析師則表示，盡管香煙的銷售額“小幅提高”，但“似乎無法充分把握競爭對手電子煙的銷售額增速大幅放緩的良機(jī)。”（財富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：嚴(yán)匡正

E-cigarette sales in recent weeks grew by the slowest rate in more than a year and a half amid public health warnings over vaping, while cigarette sales declines eased slightly in the past month, according to industry data.

Sales of e-cigarettes grew by 25.5% in the four weeks ended Oct. 5 compared with the same period a year ago, Cowen analyst Vivien Azer wrote, citing data from Nielsen. It’s a significant slowdown from the monthly growth rates of more than 50% that the e-cigarette category has seen since at least August 2018.

The slowing growth of e-cigarettes comes as U.S. regulators are expected to halt sales of flavored vaping products to address concerns they’re marketed to underage smokers, and in the wake of a lung ailment that has afflicted nearly 1,300 patients and killed 26 people, according to a report from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention last week.

“The impacts of vapor related illnesses have led to substantial sequential declines,” Cowen’s Azer wrote. Compared with the prior month, e-cigarette dollar sales were down 18.4%, while unit volumes were down 14.3%. JUUL, Cowen’s data showed, posted its third straight loss, as its market share as measured in dollars declined 64%.

In a similar trend, IRI data also showed that e-cigarette sales growth “decelerated sharply again amid rising regulatory scrutiny,” according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Retail sales grew 30% in the four weeks ending Oct. 6, significantly slowing from a 60.8% gain for the 4-week period ending Sept. 8. “A rising number of state and local bans on e-vapor products are weighing on sales,” BI analyst Ken Shea said.

On the other hand, drops in cigarette volumes were less pronounced than in the prior period, falling 6.2% in the 4-week time frame, compared with a 6.9% decline trend during the previous 12 weeks, according to Cowen. Cigarette sales have fallen for the past 23 months, Azer wrote.

It may be “too early to be certain” whether recent FDA-related news and “an increasingly negative perception of e-cigarettes” may be contributing to improved combustible cigarette volumes “as vapers potentially return” to traditional smokes, Wells Fargo analyst Bonnie Herzog said in a note.

Still, analysts are standing by the prediction that the cigarette industry will bounce back. Wells Fargo continues to expect industry volume to fall 6% this year, although “there could be upside based on the consumer response to the FDA’s actions on e-cig flavors/JUUL,“ Herzog wrote.

BI analysts said that while numbers had “improved modestly,“ cigarette sales “didn’t appear to fully capture the benefit from a pickup amid dramatically slowing sales of competing e-cigarettes.”