現(xiàn)在，請(qǐng)你四下看看，然后回答這樣一個(gè)問(wèn)題：你身邊的人都處于什么狀態(tài)？

為了所有人的工作、收入、退休金、房子和其他福利著想，我們最好希望所有人都保持樂(lè)觀的心態(tài)。目前，美國(guó)消費(fèi)者的樂(lè)觀心態(tài)，正在以前所未有的力度推動(dòng)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)。不過(guò)最新的研究顯示，美國(guó)人的心態(tài)或許很快就會(huì)發(fā)生搖擺。

雖然最近有很多文章稱，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了一些衰退的跡象，不過(guò)從消費(fèi)者的消費(fèi)活動(dòng)來(lái)看，他們對(duì)這些警告完全視而不見(jiàn)，依然泰然自若地花錢——即便扣除通脹因素，美國(guó)消費(fèi)者的人均消費(fèi)水平也超過(guò)了歷史上的任何一個(gè)時(shí)期。消費(fèi)一直是美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的最大貢獻(xiàn)因素。尤其是最近一段時(shí)期，美國(guó)消費(fèi)者算是超水平發(fā)揮了。過(guò)去五年，消費(fèi)對(duì)美國(guó)GDP增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)率達(dá)到了85%。房利美的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家最近總結(jié)道：“消費(fèi)支出仍然是推動(dòng)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)擴(kuò)張的最重要的力量?！泵绹?guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)連續(xù)增長(zhǎng)超過(guò)10年了，對(duì)于這輪創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的增長(zhǎng)，美國(guó)消費(fèi)者是不折不扣的英雄。

不過(guò)，那些還記得10年前發(fā)生的事的人，很可能會(huì)心生不寒而栗之感。消費(fèi)者的狂熱消費(fèi)，正是導(dǎo)致美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)在2003年至2007年快速增長(zhǎng)的主要推力，隨后，美國(guó)便迎來(lái)了過(guò)去70年間最嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。不過(guò)，今天的消費(fèi)主力軍并非當(dāng)年那些即便債臺(tái)高筑也要“買買買”的購(gòu)物狂。恰恰相反，他們算得上是模范公民了。在上次經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)前，美國(guó)的家庭債務(wù)一度攀升至GDP的99%，如今這一比例僅為76%。在2006年和2007年的經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮期，美國(guó)的個(gè)人儲(chǔ)蓄率居然下降為零，而現(xiàn)在則回升到8.1%，是一個(gè)比較穩(wěn)妥的比例。對(duì)此，世界大型企業(yè)聯(lián)合會(huì)（Conference Board）的消費(fèi)者信心調(diào)查負(fù)責(zé)人林恩·弗蘭科表示：“上一次經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的嚴(yán)重性，改變了美國(guó)消費(fèi)者的行為。他們是‘一朝被蛇咬，十年怕井繩’?！?/p>

目前，美國(guó)的老百姓兜里有錢，失業(yè)率處于50年來(lái)的最低水平，實(shí)際工資不斷上漲，消費(fèi)者似乎完全可以繼續(xù)“撒幣”，無(wú)限期地推動(dòng)GDP的增長(zhǎng)。然而歷史告訴我們，這是不可能的。對(duì)于美國(guó)和世界主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體來(lái)說(shuō)，美國(guó)消費(fèi)者的心情是否會(huì)變壞，特別是什么事情會(huì)讓他們的心情變壞，是一個(gè)特別值得關(guān)注的問(wèn)題。

就業(yè)疲軟是摧毀消費(fèi)者信心的頭號(hào)殺手，即便是有工作的人也在擔(dān)心這個(gè)問(wèn)題。米奇·列維是貝倫堡資本市場(chǎng)公司的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家，同時(shí)也是多家美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)銀行的顧問(wèn)。他表示：“只需要幾個(gè)非常糟糕的就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)，就可能導(dǎo)致消費(fèi)者信心和支出的下降。”貿(mào)易爭(zhēng)端的不斷升級(jí)也會(huì)影響消費(fèi)者的信心。就在美國(guó)總統(tǒng)特朗普宣布可能要與中國(guó)開(kāi)始貿(mào)易爭(zhēng)端之前，世界大型企業(yè)聯(lián)合會(huì)和密歇根大學(xué)聯(lián)合開(kāi)展了一項(xiàng)調(diào)查，詢問(wèn)了消費(fèi)者一些開(kāi)放性問(wèn)題，看哪些因素會(huì)影響他們的信心，結(jié)果表明，消費(fèi)者最關(guān)心的就是關(guān)稅和貿(mào)易爭(zhēng)端問(wèn)題。密歇根大學(xué)負(fù)責(zé)消費(fèi)者信心調(diào)查的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家理查德·科廷表示：“消費(fèi)者去超市，看到玩具、衣服、消費(fèi)電器等很多商品都漲價(jià)了，肯定會(huì)感到經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)很嚴(yán)峻?！?/p>

看到這里，你肯定會(huì)想，美國(guó)消費(fèi)者的信心是否已經(jīng)開(kāi)始動(dòng)搖了？對(duì)這個(gè)問(wèn)題，休旅車的銷量是一個(gè)值得關(guān)注的指標(biāo)，因?yàn)樾萋密嚕ū热绶寇嚕┦且环N昂貴的非生活必需品，只要消費(fèi)者對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)比較擔(dān)憂，就很有可能推遲休旅車的購(gòu)買。去年，休旅車的銷量只是稍有下滑，今年則大幅下降，這也是2007年以來(lái)，休旅車的銷量首次出現(xiàn)全年下滑。曼哈頓公寓樓的房?jī)r(jià)也很能體現(xiàn)出有錢一族的心態(tài)。根據(jù)房地產(chǎn)公司Douglas Elliman的報(bào)告，曼哈頓的房?jī)r(jià)也開(kāi)始疲軟，同時(shí)通過(guò)抵押貸款方式買房的消費(fèi)者越來(lái)越多。你可能以為，高收入階層在買房時(shí)應(yīng)該不會(huì)太斤斤計(jì)較，然而實(shí)際上，只要他們對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)有清晰的認(rèn)識(shí)，他們就會(huì)成為第一個(gè)捂緊錢袋子的人。

另一個(gè)對(duì)當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)有清醒認(rèn)識(shí)的群體是企業(yè)的CEO們，他們對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)幾乎都持悲觀態(tài)度。目前，世界大型企業(yè)聯(lián)合會(huì)發(fā)布的CEO信心指數(shù)（根據(jù)9月的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)編制）顯示，CEO們的信心已經(jīng)下降到了2009年年初以來(lái)的最低水平。就在一年前，CEO們還大多認(rèn)為，當(dāng)時(shí)的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況比6個(gè)月前有所好轉(zhuǎn)，并認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)還會(huì)繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。但現(xiàn)在，他們大都認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)正在趨于惡化，而且會(huì)變得更加糟糕。

經(jīng)濟(jì)的走向是由億萬(wàn)普通消費(fèi)者的日常決策決定的。那么他們的信心水平如何呢？很可能已經(jīng)開(kāi)始趨于悲觀了。世界大型企業(yè)聯(lián)合會(huì)今年 9月的調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)顯示，美國(guó)消費(fèi)者的信心目前仍然處于非常高的水平，但較8月大幅下降。今年9月，《財(cái)富》雜志聯(lián)合SurveyMonkey網(wǎng)站對(duì)美國(guó)的1萬(wàn)多個(gè)家庭進(jìn)行了調(diào)查，詢問(wèn)受訪者是否預(yù)計(jì)未來(lái)12個(gè)月內(nèi)將出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，持有肯定看法的受訪者占了三分之二。

不過(guò)，消費(fèi)者的信心并非預(yù)測(cè)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的一個(gè)可靠指標(biāo)。消費(fèi)者信心的下跌總是先于經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退出現(xiàn)，這也是它為什么是一個(gè)十分重要的指標(biāo)。然而即便是在經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮時(shí)期，消費(fèi)者的信心有時(shí)也會(huì)突然下跌，然后回升。這些都表明，肯定還有更多因素影響著消費(fèi)者的信心。

諾貝爾獎(jiǎng)得主、知名經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家羅伯特·席勒認(rèn)為，他已經(jīng)找到了這個(gè)神秘的因素，那就是講故事的力量。他表示：“人們的信心是由故事推動(dòng)的，我們不能將它單純地簡(jiǎn)化為信心本身?！北热缭谏弦淮谓?jīng)濟(jì)繁榮時(shí)期，“每個(gè)人都聽(tīng)過(guò)一些言之鑿鑿的‘造富神話’，比如某人賣房賺的錢比你工作一年賺的錢還多?！毕盏男聲?shū)《敘事經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)》（Narrative Economics）里提供了很多這樣的例子，從中可以看出，歷史上的很多繁榮與蕭條，與這些“故事”都有密切的關(guān)系。席勒指出：“我現(xiàn)在特別關(guān)注的一個(gè)‘故事’，就是圍繞著人工智能技術(shù)的敘事——很多人認(rèn)為，人工智能技術(shù)有一天會(huì)取代幾乎所有的工作崗位?！边@種敘事如果被社會(huì)媒體放大，再加上實(shí)際就業(yè)率的下降，就很有可能會(huì)讓消費(fèi)者的情緒從樂(lè)觀變成悲觀，進(jìn)而導(dǎo)致增長(zhǎng)的引擎熄火。

所有的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，都會(huì)演變成一個(gè)自我強(qiáng)化的惡性循環(huán)，但只要消費(fèi)者保持樂(lè)觀，這種循環(huán)就無(wú)法持續(xù)下去。要想知道經(jīng)濟(jì)走勢(shì)何去何從，我們既要仔細(xì)監(jiān)測(cè)信心數(shù)據(jù)，同時(shí)也要仔細(xì)辨別你聽(tīng)到的故事里隱含的意義。

同時(shí)，為你自己也為他人好，最好還是多傳播一些陽(yáng)光的故事。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

本文另一版本登載于《財(cái)富》雜志2019年11月刊，標(biāo)題為《美國(guó)消費(fèi)者剖析》。

譯者：樸成奎

Look to your left and your right and then answer this question: What’s the mood of the people around you?

For the sake of everyone’s jobs, incomes, retirement funds, homes, and much else, we’d better hope the mood stays upbeat. Much more than usual, the consumer’s sunny disposition is propelling the U.S. economy’s growth. But the latest research suggests a mood swing may be underway.

In their shopping, consumers are blithely ignoring the daily articles about the latest signs of a looming recession. Unperturbed, they’re spending with gusto—more per capita than ever in history, even after adjusting for inflation. Their spending has long been the largest component of America’s economy; over the past several years, consumption has accounted for 67% to 69% of U.S. GDP. But lately, consumers have been outdoing themselves, contributing 85% of America’s GDP growth over the past five years. Fannie Mae’s economists recently concluded, “Consumer spending remains the most important force driving the continued expansion of the U.S. economy.” Shoppers are the heroes of this record-setting expansion, 10 years old and counting.

Those who remember back more than 10 years may shudder. Frenzied consumption is exactly what fueled the ebullient growth of 2003 to 2007, before it all collapsed into the worst recession of the past 70 years. But today’s consumers aren’t the debt-crazed shopping fiends of those days. Just the opposite: Financially, they’re model citizens. Before the last recession, household debt climbed to 99% of GDP; today, it’s only 76%. As the economy boomed in 2006 and 2007, the personal savings rate fell, bizarrely, to zero; today, it’s a prudent 8.1%. “The severity of the last recession has altered consumers’ behavior,” says Lynn Franco, who oversees the Conference Board’s consumer confidence survey. “They were scarred.”

With households nowhere near tapped out, unemployment at a 50-year low, and real wages rising, it seems consumers could comfortably keep up their heroic GDP-driving performance indefinitely. Yet history says they won’t. The great question for the U.S. and world economies is whether U.S. consumers’ mood will sour, and specifically what might spook them into pulling back.

Job weakness is the No. 1 candidate, frightening even people who are still working. “A couple of really bad employment numbers would probably lead to a decline in confidence and spending,” says Mickey Levy, an economist at Berenberg Capital Markets and an adviser to several Federal Reserve banks. An escalating trade war could also dent the consumer psyche. The latest surveys by the Conference Board and the University of Michigan—conducted before President Trump announced a potential trade deal with China—asked respondents open-ended questions about what worries them; the top answers were tariffs and trade wars. “The weakest point now is that tariffs will drive up consumer prices,” says Richard Curtin, chief economist for Michigan’s consumer sentiment surveys. “It could be a sobering experience for consumers going to the store and seeing prices of many things rising—toys, clothing, consumer electronics.”

You can’t help wondering if consumers are already starting to waver. Sales of recreational vehicles are worth watching because RVs are expensive nonnecessities, an easy purchase to postpone if buyers are worried. Sales fell slightly last year and are down sharply this year—their first full-year decline since 2007. Manhattan apartment prices offer a glimpse into the minds of high-income consumers, and those prices are weakening, the Douglas Elliman real estate firm reports; in addition, more buyers are using mortgages. You might think high-income home buyers would be the last people to pinch pennies, but they could also be among the first if they have a clearer view of economic trends.

A group with an even clearer view is CEOs, and they’re almost despondent. The Conference Board’s CEO confidence index, based on a September poll, has plunged to the lowest reading since early 2009, in the gloomiest days of the last recession. Only a year ago, the CEOs mostly thought economic conditions were better than they had been six months earlier and would keep getting better. Now they mostly think conditions are worse and will get worse still.

As for ordinary consumers—the mass of buyers whose daily decisions steer the economy—their view may be darkening at this moment. The Conference Board’s September reading shows consumer confidence at a still-extraordinarily high level but down sharply from August. A Fortune-SurveyMonkey poll of more than 10,000 households in September asked respondents if they expected a recession in the next 12 months. Two-thirds said yes.

But consumer confidence is an unreliable predictor of recessions. It always declines before downturns—that’s why it’s crucially important—but it sometimes drops just as deeply in the midst of booms, then bounces back. All of which suggests there must be more going on in consumers’ heads.

Nobel prize–winning economist Robert Shiller thinks he has found the missing factor. It’s the power of story. “People are motivated by narratives,” he says. “It’s not distilled down just to confidence.” In the last boom, for example, “everyone heard concrete stories about someone making more money selling their house than you made working all last year,” he notes. His new book, Narrative Economics, offers many such examples of stories going viral, fueling booms and busts through history. “One narrative I’m particularly concerned about now is the A.I. narrative—the idea that technology will take over almost all jobs,” he says. That narrative, if amplified by social media and combined with real employment declines, could tip the consumer mood from positive to pessimistic—shutting down the growth engine.

All recessions become a self-reinforcing downward spiral, but the spiral can’t function as long as consumers stay hopeful. To sense where we’re headed, monitor the confidence data and also listen carefully to the tenor of the stories you’re hearing.

And for your own good, spread sunshine.

A version of this article appears in the November 2019 issue of Fortune with the headline “Anatomy of an American Spender.”