只要作為美國經(jīng)濟(jì)命脈的美國消費(fèi)者繼續(xù)慷慨解囊，有關(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的預(yù)測便可能無法成為現(xiàn)實(shí)。畢竟，一杯5美元的咖啡可能算不上奢侈。

然而，這意味著我們應(yīng)該密切關(guān)注美國人的花銷習(xí)慣及其個(gè)人財(cái)務(wù)前景，尤其是在制造業(yè)不斷萎縮的這個(gè)時(shí)代。這也是為什么《財(cái)富》雜志和SurveyMonkey攜手開展此次調(diào)查的原因，其受調(diào)對(duì)象超過了1萬名美國民眾。

你應(yīng)該了解的數(shù)字：

88%

· 88%的美國人稱其開支水平較12個(gè)月前有所上升（29%）或持平（59%）。同時(shí)，僅有10%的受調(diào)對(duì)象出現(xiàn)了同比開支預(yù)算負(fù)增長。

66%

· 66%的美國人認(rèn)為美國經(jīng)濟(jì)將在未來12個(gè)月內(nèi)陷入衰退。

45%

· 45%的共和黨人認(rèn)為美國經(jīng)濟(jì)將在12個(gè)月內(nèi)進(jìn)入衰退，而民主黨的比例為84%。

大環(huán)境分析：

美國人依然在毫不吝嗇地購買新面世的產(chǎn)品和高價(jià)物品，然而，他們對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的展望出現(xiàn)了大幅下滑，而且大多數(shù)人預(yù)測美國經(jīng)濟(jì)在2020年將陷入衰退。這個(gè)日漸濃厚的悲觀主義則是經(jīng)濟(jì)觀察家們需要關(guān)注的事情。

穆迪分析的消費(fèi)者經(jīng)濟(jì)研究業(yè)務(wù)負(fù)責(zé)人斯考特·霍伊特稱：“如果不是消費(fèi)支出的話，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)早已進(jìn)入了衰退……消費(fèi)支出對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的貢獻(xiàn)比例過半，但其他經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域都在萎縮?！?/p>

美國經(jīng)濟(jì)分析局稱，第三季度，美國GDP增速降至1.9%，像出口這樣的重點(diǎn)領(lǐng)域下滑了5.7%，私人投資下降了1.5%。然而，消費(fèi)支出增長了2.9%，其中，商品購買開支出現(xiàn)了5.5%的大幅增長。

三大重要特征：

1. 消費(fèi)開支全面增長

As long as American consumers—the lifeblood of the economy—keep spending away, recession speculation is unlikely to turn into reality. Maybe you shouldn’t feel guilty for that $5 coffee after all?

But this means we should keep a close eye on Americans spending habits and their personal economic outlook, especially when considering manufacturing is contracting. That’s why Fortune and SurveyMonkey teamed up to conduct a poll of more than 10,000 Americans.*

The big numbers you should know:

88%

· ... Americans say their spending levels are either up (29%) or flat (59%) compared to 12 months ago. While only 1 in 10 respondents have cut their spending budget year-over-year.

66%

· ... Americans think a recession will occur over the coming 12 months.

45%

· ... of Republicans think a recession will occur over the coming 12 months, compared to 84% of Democrats.

Big picture takeaway:

Americans are still throwing down money for the latest gadgets and buying big ticket items, however, their outlook of the economy is souring with the majority foreseeing a 2020 recession. And that growing pessimism is something economic onlookers need to watch.

“If not for consumer spending, we’d be in a recession... Consumer spending accounts for more than all of the growth in the economy. The rest of the economy is contracting,” says Scott Hoyt, head of consumer economic research at Moody’s Analytics.

In the third quarter, U.S. gross domestic product growth slowed to 1.9%, with key components like exports falling 5.7% and private investment down 1.5%. Yet consumer spending rose 2.9%, including a 5.5% jump in spending on goods, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Three deep takeaways:

1. Spending is up across the board

無論在哪一個(gè)人口類目——種族、收入或地區(qū)，家庭開支更多地呈現(xiàn)出了增長而不是降低的趨勢。盡管這個(gè)數(shù)字十分強(qiáng)勁，但我們不能高估其重要性：消費(fèi)支出占GDP的比重從50年前的59.5%增至今年第三季度的68.1%。

來自于農(nóng)業(yè)人口的反饋的確揭示了一些令人擔(dān)憂的顧慮，有18%的人表示其家庭開支較一年前有所減少，這個(gè)數(shù)字在我們調(diào)查的29個(gè)行業(yè)中居于首位。可能從事農(nóng)業(yè)的工人正在遭受中美貿(mào)易爭端所帶來的沖擊。

2. 對(duì)生活必需品的需求高于奢侈品

Among every demographic—whether it’s race, income, or region—households are more likely to be growing their spending levels than cutting back. And the importance of strong spending figures cannot be overstated: Over the past 50 years, consumer spending has risen from 59.5% of GDP to 68.1% in the latest quarter.

Some concerning responses did come from Americans who work in the agriculture industry, with 18% saying their household spending is lower now than a year ago—that’s the highest figure among the 29 industries we looked at. Perhaps workers in the agriculture business are feeling the impacts of the U.S.-China trade war.

2. Necessities over luxuries

實(shí)際上，在削減家庭開支的少數(shù)家庭（10%）會(huì)優(yōu)先削減娛樂消費(fèi)。這是很正常的：如果出現(xiàn)預(yù)算不足的現(xiàn)象，人們很有可能在削減必需品購買開支之前放棄購買流媒體服務(wù)或減少周末旅行。

3. 黨派分歧

The minority of households (10%) who are actually cutting household spending, are targeting entertainment expenses first. That makes sense: if you have a budget gap you’d likely drop a streaming service or scale back weekend getaways before cutting necessities.

3. The partisan divide

對(duì)美國的經(jīng)濟(jì)展望出現(xiàn)了以黨派為界限的分歧。約80%的民主黨/民主黨傾向選民認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退將在未來12個(gè)月中到來。與此同時(shí)，略超過半數(shù)的共和黨/共和黨傾向選民則認(rèn)為不大可能出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。

然而，以下一組數(shù)字可能會(huì)讓這些展望出現(xiàn)反轉(zhuǎn)：民主黨家庭和共和黨家庭的開支分別增加了33%和24%。人們是否是在按照自己的政治傾向來推測經(jīng)濟(jì)走勢呢？經(jīng)濟(jì)問題必然是總統(tǒng)選舉年的中心議題，因此很明顯，經(jīng)濟(jì)下行對(duì)于現(xiàn)任總統(tǒng)來說是個(gè)壞消息，而對(duì)于挑戰(zhàn)者來說則十分有利。

一個(gè)有意思的數(shù)字：

35%

· 35%的美國人稱他們已經(jīng)調(diào)整了其財(cái)務(wù)開支，以迎接經(jīng)濟(jì)下行的到來。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

*調(diào)查方法：《財(cái)富》與SurveyMonkey的調(diào)查涉及全美10,372個(gè)成年人樣本。該調(diào)查的建模誤差估值為±3%。這些發(fā)現(xiàn)已經(jīng)根據(jù)年齡、種族、性別、教育和地域進(jìn)行了加權(quán)處理。

譯者：馮豐

審校：夏林

Americans’ economic outlooks are dividend along partisan lines. Around 8 in 10 Democrats/Democratic-leaning voters think a recession is coming in the next 12 months. Meanwhile, a slight majority of Republican/Republican-leaning voters think a recession is unlikely.

One might assume those outlooks would be flipped when considering spending rose in 33% of Democratic households versus 24% in GOP households. So are people viewing the economic outlook with a personal politics lens? The economy is front and center during presidential election years, so obviously a downturn would be bad for an incumbent president and helpful for a challenger.

One interesting number:

35%

· ... of Americans say they’ve made changes to their finances to prepare for a downturn.

*Methodology: The Fortune-SurveyMonkey poll was conducted among a national sample of 10,372 adults in the U.S. This survey’s modeled error estimate is plus or minus 3 percentage points. The findings have been weighted for age, race, sex, education, and geography.