路威酩軒集團(tuán)（LVMH）的老板伯納德·阿諾特遇到了一個(gè)問題——一個(gè)唐納德·特朗普問題。

現(xiàn)年70歲的世界第三大富豪價(jià)值1040億美元的身家在上周二下滑16億美元，原因是美國貿(mào)易代表宣布對(duì)法國奢侈品制造商加征高達(dá)100%的關(guān)稅，其中包括路威酩軒旗下的時(shí)裝品牌寶格麗（Bulgari）、迪奧（Christian Dior）、路易威登（Louis Vuitton）和香檳生產(chǎn)商酩悅（Mo?t & Chandon）。

上述關(guān)稅是針對(duì)法國對(duì)推特、谷歌、Facebook和亞馬遜等硅谷巨頭征收數(shù)字服務(wù)稅（DST）實(shí)施的報(bào)復(fù)，如果在2020年1月成為現(xiàn)實(shí),將一舉擊中阿諾特龐大商業(yè)帝國的心臟，根據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)，該集團(tuán)的2018年總營收接近520億美元,。

上周二，路威酩軒集團(tuán)（阿諾特持股50%）的股價(jià)在受到關(guān)稅威脅后下跌了1.5%，導(dǎo)致該時(shí)尚巨頭在當(dāng)天交易中損失了約16億美元。之后，股價(jià)收復(fù)了一半失地，截至上周四上午，約為每股441美元。

根據(jù)Factset的數(shù)據(jù)，阿諾特所持股票在上周二的總市值為1040億美元，較11月29日蒸發(fā)了40億美元。

財(cái)富的變化

而就在此之前，阿諾特在11月底剛剛宣布路易酩軒以162億美元收購紐約著名珠寶商蒂芙尼的利好消息。這筆交易將為他名下一系列耀眼的品牌名錄中增添另一個(gè)知名奢侈品品牌，也讓他更接近“世界首富”的稱號(hào)。

上周二，特朗普在倫敦北約會(huì)議第一天發(fā)言，不僅沒有對(duì)自己針對(duì)法國奢侈品牌作出的決定道歉，還直接批評(píng)了法國針對(duì)美國公司的數(shù)字服務(wù)稅。

LVMH boss Bernard Arnault has a problem—a Donald Trump problem.

The world’s third-richest man, 70, saw his $104 billion personal fortune slip by an estimated $1.6 billion on last Tuesday after the U.S. Trade Representative announced tariffs of up to 100% on luxury French manufacturers, including LVMH-owned fashion houses Bulgari, Christian Dior, and Louis Vuitton and Champagne-maker Mo?t & Chandon.

Should they be implemented in January, the tariffs—launched in retaliation to France's new Digital Services Tax (DST) on Silicon Valley giants such as Twitter, Google, Facebook and Amazon—will strike at the heart of Arnault’s sprawling business empire, which recorded total revenue of close to $52 billion in 2018, according to company figures.

On last Tuesday, the share price of LVMH—which is 50% owned by Arnault—fell 1.5% following the tariff threat, costing the fashion magnate around $1.6 billion in a single day of trading. The stock has since gained back half the losses to stand at around $441 a share as of last Thursday morning.

Data from Factset also showed the total market value of Arnault’s holdings as $104 billion on last Tuesday, a dip of $4 billion from November 29.

Change of fortune

The downward trajectories immediately follow upbeat news for Arnault, who just last week announced LVMH’s $16.2 billion deal for storied New York jeweler Tiffany. The deal will add yet another world-famous luxury brand to his portfolio of glamorous names, and push him closer to the title of “world’s richest person.”

Speaking on the first day of the NATO conference in London on last Tuesday, Trump was unapologetic about his decision to target French luxury brands and directly criticized the French digital tax for targeting U.S. companies.

“我不會(huì)讓任何人占美國公司便宜?！碧乩势照勂鸱▏臄?shù)字服務(wù)稅時(shí)表示，這項(xiàng)稅收將對(duì)科技巨頭在法國賺取的收入征收3%的稅，其中很多公司總部都在美國。

“我不想讓法國對(duì)美國公司征稅。如果有人要對(duì)美國公司征稅，只能是我們。”他補(bǔ)充道。

美國貿(mào)易代表羅伯特·萊特希澤在上周一首次提到這項(xiàng)可能要加征的關(guān)稅后，產(chǎn)生了立竿見影的影響：阿諾特旗下迪奧的股價(jià)第二天下跌了1.5%，其競爭對(duì)手、擁有時(shí)尚品牌古馳（Gucci）、圣羅蘭（Yves Saint Laurent）和巴黎世家（Balenciaga）的奢侈品集團(tuán)開云集團(tuán)（Kering）股價(jià)也下跌了約1.9%。迪奧和開云的股價(jià)此后都已經(jīng)恢復(fù)了約四分之三的損失。

第二擊

這項(xiàng)新的關(guān)稅威脅是近幾個(gè)月來法國和阿諾特本人受到的第二次打擊。10月18日，特朗普政府對(duì)大型民用飛機(jī)征收10%的關(guān)稅，對(duì)包括威士忌、葡萄酒、手袋、男士西裝在內(nèi)的各類歐洲產(chǎn)品征收25%的關(guān)稅，作為法國、德國、西班牙和英國向法國空客提供180億美元政府補(bǔ)貼的回應(yīng)——這些補(bǔ)貼被世界貿(mào)易組織認(rèn)定為違規(guī)。

這次關(guān)稅影響到了許多行業(yè)，既包括蘇格蘭的威士忌釀酒廠，也包括洛克福特和格魯耶爾的奶酪制造商，但對(duì)路威酩軒集團(tuán)的打擊是巨大的，因?yàn)樗孽傑幠嵩娖煜掠?6家獨(dú)立的葡萄酒和烈酒制造商，如唐培里儂（Dom Perignon）、庫克（Krug）、凱歌香檳（Veuve Clicquot）和軒尼詩（Hennessy）。其龐大的時(shí)尚產(chǎn)業(yè)還包括一系列為紀(jì)梵希（Givenchy）、高田賢三（Kenzo）和路易威登等品牌生產(chǎn)的高檔皮革制品。

“I’m not going to let anyone take advantage of American companies,” Trump told reporters of the tax that will introduce a 3% levy on the revenue earned in France by the tech titans, many of which are based in the U.S.

“I don’t want France to be taxing American companies. If anyone’s going to tax American companies, it’s us,” he added.

When the U.S. Trade Representative Ambassador Robert Lighthizer first mentioned the potential tariffs on last Monday, the effect was immediate: shares in Arnault-owned Christian Dior dropped by 1.5% Tuesday, with rival luxury group Kering, owner of fashion icons Gucci, Yves Saint Laurent and Balenciaga, also losing around 1.9%. Shares in both Dior and Kerring have since recouped around three-quarters of their losses.

A second hit

The new tariff threat is the second to hit France—and Arnault himself—in recent months. On October 18, the Trump administration imposed tariffs of 10% on large civil aircraft and 25% on European products ranging from whiskey and wine to handbags to men’s suits, in response to $18 billion in government subsidies provided to Airbus by France, Germany, Spain, and the U.K.—subsidies the World Trade Organization has deemed illegal.

This hit a variety of businesses—from Scottish Whiskey distillers to the makers of Roquefort and Gruyère cheese—but the blow to LVMH has been considerable because its Mo?t Hennessy department controls 26 separate wine and spirit makers, such as Dom Perignon, Krug, Veuve Clicquot, and Hennessy. Its vast fashion holdings also include an array of high-class leather goods manufactured for labels such as Givenchy, Kenzo and Louis Vuitton.

與此同時(shí)，美國奢侈品行業(yè)也是路威酩軒集團(tuán)的一個(gè)主要市場。根據(jù)彭博社的數(shù)據(jù)，美國消費(fèi)者在2018年搶購了價(jià)值124億美元的路威酩軒集團(tuán)的產(chǎn)品——約占其全球銷售額的25%。

美法之間的貿(mào)易沖突于上周升級(jí)，受到?jīng)_擊最嚴(yán)重的是法國奢侈品行業(yè)，標(biāo)普全球市場情報(bào)公司Panjiva的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，該行業(yè)占法國對(duì)美出口總額的4.1%。總體而言，擬加征關(guān)稅覆蓋63種產(chǎn)品，貿(mào)易額約為24億美元。其中受影響最大的將是美容產(chǎn)品，過去12個(gè)月美國的進(jìn)口額達(dá)到8.42億美元，其次是香檳（8.06億美元）和手袋（4.34億美元）。

而美容業(yè)巨頭法國歐萊雅（L’Oreal）是美國最大的美容產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口商。路威酩軒集團(tuán)可能會(huì)真正感受到關(guān)稅帶來的痛苦，因?yàn)樗漠a(chǎn)品涵蓋了最受影響的三大類別。

路威酩軒集團(tuán)沒有立即回復(fù)《財(cái)富》雜志的置評(píng)請(qǐng)求。

那些處于關(guān)稅射程內(nèi)的公司或許仍然能夠找到安慰，因?yàn)槟壳凹诱麝P(guān)稅還只是個(gè)威脅，并不能夠保證一定會(huì)實(shí)施，盡管局勢依舊十分緊張。

法國經(jīng)濟(jì)財(cái)政部部長布魯諾·勒梅爾于上周二在接受法國之聲（Radio Classique）采訪時(shí)表示：“這不應(yīng)該是美國對(duì)其主要盟友之一法國以及對(duì)整個(gè)歐洲的做法?！彼f，“我們昨天與歐盟各國進(jìn)行了接觸，確保如果美國征收新的關(guān)稅，歐洲將作出反應(yīng)，做出強(qiáng)有力的反應(yīng)。”

目前，美國和法國之間的沖突似乎遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)無法得到解決，因此，阿諾特昂貴的問題也遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)無法得到解決。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Agatha

At the same time, the U.S. luxury goods sector is also a major LVMH market. According to Bloomberg data, U.S. shoppers snapped up $12.4 billion worth of LVMH goods in 2018—around 25% of its global sales.

The U.S.-France conflict that escalated last week strikes at the heart of the French luxury sector, which accounts for 4.1% of total French exports to the U.S, according to Panjiva, S&P Global Market Intelligence. In total, the proposed tariffs target 63 products with an approximate trade value of $2.4 billion. Among these, beauty products will be most affected, having recorded $842 million in U.S. imports over the past 12 months, followed by Champagne ($806 million) and handbags ($434 million).

While beauty giant France’s L’Oreal is the largest shipper of beauty products into the U.S., LVMH is likely to really feel the pain of the tariffs since its product range includes all three top affected categories.

LVMH did not immediately return Fortune’s request for comment.

The firms in the firing line may find solace in the tariffs only being a threat at this point—they're not guaranteed to go into effect—though tensions remain high.

“This is not the sort of behavior one expects from the United States with respect to one of its main allies, France, and to Europe in general,” French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire told Radio Classique on last Tuesday. “We were in contact yesterday with the European Union to ensure that if there are new American tariffs there will be a European response, a strong response,” he said.

For now, the conflict between the U.S. and France seems far from a resolution—and so, in turn, does Arnault’s pricey problem.