2016年6月24日，周五，夏日的倫敦陽光燦爛，足以讓人浮想聯(lián)翩。然而從清晨開始，整個城市都因為脫歐公投結果而彌漫著焦慮與痛苦的氣息。在加入歐盟43年之后，超過1,700萬的英國人（占投票者的近52％）投票決定離開這個全球最大的單一市場。

瑞安·拉文斯克勞福特律師供職于總部位于美國的債券交易平臺MarketAxess，她有充足的時間考慮接下來的計劃。從位于郊區(qū)的住所到倫敦巴比肯區(qū)的公司歐洲總部有一個小時的車程，懷著七個月的身孕的瑞安顯得心煩意亂。到公司時，她已經(jīng)拿定了主意。作為一名土生土長的英國人，瑞安說：“我是第一個要求（公司）搬遷的人?！?/p>

三年后，在10月一個陽光燦爛的清晨，我又一次遇見了瑞安。只是地點換成了MarketAxess歐盟區(qū)新總部，這是一座修建在阿姆斯特丹運河邊的百年古屋，與倫敦窗外嘈雜的車流聲不同，這里時而會聽到河船經(jīng)過時激起的水聲。瑞安是公司的高級法律顧問，在倫敦工作時需要乘火車通勤，每天花費32美元。而現(xiàn)在，她可以騎著自行車送3歲的女兒塞倫去附近的幼兒園，再把自行車和嬰兒車鎖在辦公室外。前后只需5分鐘，也不用花錢。36歲的瑞安說，這樣的改變以前想都不敢想，“生活質(zhì)量提升很大，不必每天花3個小時上下班，可以把更多的時間投入到工作上?！?/p>

受英國脫歐影響，瑞安的生活發(fā)生了翻天覆地的變化，但這絕非個例。是否脫歐、何時脫歐的問題將英國的政治、經(jīng)濟攪得一團亂麻。12月12日，英國將舉行大選，明年1月31日則是脫歐協(xié)議的最后期限，兩個事件將是英國的脫歐大劇的下一幕好戲，屆時英國是走是留也將一見分曉。但許多企業(yè)已經(jīng)決定不再等待。自2016年公投以來，為了避免英國脫歐后與歐盟法規(guī)發(fā)生沖突，已經(jīng)有數(shù)百家企業(yè)將其業(yè)務完全撤出英國，或?qū)㈥P鍵部門轉(zhuǎn)移至其他27個歐盟國家，一同離開的還有數(shù)以千計的員工。

Friday, June 24, 2016, was the kind of spark?ling summer’s day that usually inspires giddy buoyancy in London. On that morning, however, anxiety and distress fell on the city like a lead weight, as the results of the previous day’s Brexit referendum rolled in. More than 17 million Brits, nearly 52% of those who cast a ballot, had voted to leave the European Union, after 43 years in the world’s biggest single market.

For Rhian Ravenscroft, an attorney for U.S.-based bond-trading platform Market?Axess, there was plenty of time to consider her next move. Seven months pregnant and deeply upset, she had an hour-long journey from her suburban home to the company’s European headquarters in London’s Barbican district. By the time she reached the office, she knew what she would do. “I was the first one to ask to move,” says Ravenscroft, who is British.

When I meet Ravenscroft in October, more than three years later, it is on another sparkling, sunny morning. But now she is sitting in a centuries-old canal-side house in Amsterdam—?MarketAxess’s new EU headquarters. The sound outside the picture windows is not London traffic but rather the lapping of water from riverboats gliding by. In London, Ravenscroft, now the company’s senior legal counsel, had a $32 roundtrip train commute. Today, she has dropped off her 3-year-old daughter, Seren, by bicycle at a kindergarten nearby, then locked her bike with its infant buggy outside the office. Total commuting time: five minutes. Total cost: zero. “The quality of life has totally changed,” says Ravenscroft, 36, still stunned by the shift. “Not having to commute up to three hours a day frees up a lot of time to concentrate on your job.”

Ravenscroft is hardly alone in having her life radically upturned by Brexit. The question of whether or when the U.K. will leave the EU has dragged Britain’s economy and political apparatus into dysfunction. A U.K. general election on Dec. 12 and a Jan. 31 deadline for an exit deal are the next plot twists in this long-running drama that could cement the country’s departure—or not. But much of the corporate world has decided it can’t wait any longer to see the final episode. Since the votes were counted in 2016, hundreds of businesses have pulled their operations entirely out of Britain, or relocated key segments to the other 27 EU countries, uprooting thousands of employees to avoid running afoul of European regulations.

英國脫歐的最終破壞力難以估量，其全面影響需要數(shù)年時間才會明朗。而對于阿姆斯特丹而言，影響已經(jīng)很明顯，從這座井然有序的小城我們可以一窺英國脫歐后歐洲的景象。經(jīng)濟事務部下屬的荷蘭外商投資局（NFIA）稱，受英國脫歐影響，約有100余家在英國開展業(yè)務的公司已經(jīng)在荷蘭開設辦事處。盡管僅有80萬人口的阿姆斯特丹無法與擁有900萬人口的倫敦相提并論，但仍然有至少65家企業(yè)的荷蘭辦事處選擇設在這座小城。市政官員表示，這些企業(yè)將在未來三年內(nèi)創(chuàng)造約3500個工作崗位。而與未來的企業(yè)遷入潮相比，現(xiàn)在的數(shù)字也許根本不值一提。NFIA的局長倪景潤表示，該機構正在與其他近350家公司就搬遷事宜進行談判，去年1月才80家，只能用“進展神速”來形容。

多家主流媒體以及大型生命科學公司最近也將其業(yè)務擴展到了阿姆斯特丹。而在金融服務業(yè)，變化則更為明顯。幾十年來，歐洲金融業(yè)一直以倫敦金融城方圓一平方英里的區(qū)域為中心，其它地區(qū)顯得無足輕重。然而現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)是今非昔比，自英國脫歐公投以來，金融機構紛紛向歐洲大陸伸出觸角，隨之而來的影響將會更為深遠。

企業(yè)遷入對阿姆斯特丹無疑是一大利好。但是對于城市中的許多人來說，現(xiàn)在慶祝未免有些為時過早。新居民的加入會給供應短缺的經(jīng)適房市場帶來新的壓力，而且很難說脫歐對荷蘭一定是利大于弊。荷蘭約有22.5萬個工作崗位與對英貿(mào)易相關。僅出口一項，每年的產(chǎn)值就有約255億歐元（283億美元），而這一經(jīng)濟動脈目前正在面臨英國脫歐帶來的風險。阿姆斯特丹負責經(jīng)濟事務的副市長西蒙妮·庫肯海姆堅稱，該市從未想過趁虛而入，奪取倫敦商業(yè)樞紐的地位。她說：“這是企業(yè)界對英國脫歐的反應，而不是我們說‘我們想從中謀求什么好處。’英國脫歐是件讓人非常難過的事情?！痹掚m如此，但痛苦只是理論上的，英國脫歐給荷蘭帶來的好處卻是實實在在的。

The disruption of a final Brexit is impossible to calculate, and its full dimensions will take years to become clear. Even so, in tiny, orderly Amsterdam, it is already possible to glimpse what post-Brexit Europe might look like—because it is already here. About 100 companies with operations in Britain have opened offices in the Netherlands because of Brexit, according to the Netherlands Foreign Investment Agency (NFIA), part of the Ministry of Economic Affairs. Of those, at least 65 are in Amsterdam, a city with a population of 800,000—a sliver of London’s 9 million. City officials say the influx will create about 3,500 jobs in the next three years. And that could be a trickle compared with a future flood. NFIA commissioner Jeroen Nijland says the agency is in talks with almost 350 other companies—up from 80 last January—about possible moves. “This is developing fast,” he says.

Major media entities and big life-sciences companies have recently expanded into Amsterdam. But nowhere is this change felt as sharply as in the financial services industry. For decades, finance’s European identity has centered on one square mile of London called simply The City, as though there were none other. That is no longer the case. Since the Brexit referendum, the industry has splintered across the Continent, in a shift that could ultimately be profound and permanent.

For Amsterdam, the migration has been an undeniable boon. But for many in the city, celebration feels premature. New residents are straining a market where affordable housing is in short supply. And it’s hardly certain that the Dutch will gain more than they lose from Brexit. About 225,000 jobs in the Netherlands are related to trade with Britain. Exports alone are worth about 25.5 billion euros ($28.3 billion) a year—an economic artery now at risk. Simone Kukenheim, Amsterdam’s deputy mayor for economic affairs, insists the corporate-hub windfall is one the city never chased. “This is a reaction to Brexit, not us saying, ‘Hah, let us see what we can get out of this,’?” she says. “There is deep sadness over Britain leaving.” Still, for now, the heartache is theoretical; the benefits are real.

長期以來，荷蘭對商界人士一直持歡迎態(tài)度。NFIA的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，自20世紀70年代以來，已經(jīng)有約4,000家外國公司落戶荷蘭，其中約有一半是美國公司。阿姆斯特丹巨大的國際機場是一個全球性的交通樞紐，從這里飛往倫敦只需1小時。英語是通用語言，超高速互聯(lián)網(wǎng)服務更是無處不在。企業(yè)所得稅的稅率為25％，雖然高于英國或愛爾蘭，但低于德、法兩個歐洲大國。

而且，英國脫歐日期的臨近更是放大了這些優(yōu)勢。多數(shù)人認為英國脫歐帶來的問題主要在商品貿(mào)易方面，想想要對法國葡萄酒和德國汽車征收關稅或者邊境上大排長龍的車隊就讓人頭疼。事實上，服務業(yè)面臨的障礙同樣巨大，甚至可能超出人們的想象。從英國脫歐開始的那一刻起，總部位于英國的任何一家公司，無論國籍，都要重新申辦新的監(jiān)管許可才能夠在歐盟的其他地區(qū)開展業(yè)務，同時還需要與地處歐盟的客戶重新簽訂合同。

現(xiàn)實問題迫在眉睫，金融業(yè)不得不早早邁出撤離英國的腳步。據(jù)英國智庫New Financial的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，截至目前，已經(jīng)有332家金融公司將其核心業(yè)務遷出倫敦。而最終離開英國的金融機構數(shù)量或?qū)⒏?。?jù)安永發(fā)布的《英國脫歐追蹤》報告估計，在不久的未來，倫敦將流失大約7,000個金融工作崗位，以及大約1萬億英鎊（1.29萬億美元）的銀行資產(chǎn)。

The Netherlands has long been welcoming to business outsiders. Some 4,000 foreign companies, about half of them American, have set up in the country since the 1970s, according to NFIA. Amsterdam’s vast international airport is a global hub, an hour’s flight time from London. English is widely spoken; ultrafast Internet service has long been ubiquitous. And the 25% corporate income-tax rate, while higher than in the U.K. or Ireland, is lower than those of continental giants France and Germany.

Britain’s looming departure is amplifying these advantages. Most people think of Brexit headaches in terms of trade in goods, imagining tariffs on French wine and German cars, or 10-mile truck backups at the borders. But the hurdles for service industries are just as big, if not bigger. From the moment Brexit begins, every company now based in Britain, regardless of its nationality, will need new regulatory licenses to do business in the rest of the EU, along with new contracts for EU clients.

This looming reality has spurred the financial industry to mount an early Brexodus. So far, 332 financial companies have moved core elements out of London, according to U.K. think tank New Financial. Those numbers may understate the eventual departures: Accounting firm EY’s Brexit Tracker estimates that about 7,000 financial jobs will leave London in the near future, and that about a trillion British pounds ($1.29 trillion) in banking assets could also leave.

花旗銀行和摩根大通各自斥資1億多美元，將其歐盟業(yè)務中心遷出倫敦。美國銀行也將約125名員工遷至位于都柏林的新歐盟區(qū)總部，另有400名員工將遷至巴黎。此前，歐盟銀行業(yè)管理局已經(jīng)從倫敦遷至巴黎。

而阿姆斯特丹則更被金融數(shù)據(jù)公司、券商、交易所及其他交易基礎設施提供商等“多元化金融”公司所青睞。據(jù)New Financial統(tǒng)計，落地阿姆斯特丹的大多數(shù)金融總部都屬于此類企業(yè)，而且從英國吸引到此的類似企業(yè)比其他歐盟城市都多。受益于此，荷蘭或?qū)⑷A麗蛻變，而倫敦則是元氣大傷。NFIA的倪景潤表示：“對于首次在歐洲投資的投資者來說，英國將不再是其首選?！?/p>

對于已經(jīng)將業(yè)務遷出英國的公司而言，脫歐之爭已經(jīng)不再是他們關心的問題。保險評級機構AM Best總部位于新澤西州奧爾德威克，該公司的市場開發(fā)董事總經(jīng)理尼克·查特里斯·布萊克表示：“我們無法干等著政客達成共識?！比ツ?，AM Best將其歐盟總部從倫敦搬到了阿姆斯特丹南部的澤伊達斯金融中心，從這里乘火車前往史基浦國際機場僅需要10分鐘。在公司位于NoMa House辦公樓的咖啡廳里，AM Best的阿姆斯特丹經(jīng)理安琪拉·伊奧一邊啜飲著精釀意式咖啡，一邊說：“公司約有三分之一的業(yè)務已經(jīng)從倫敦遷出。”她將NoMA描述為“英國脫歐難民營”；卡夫亨氏是NoMa的主要租戶，去年在此開設了擁有450名員工的全球“卓越中心”。

完全撤出英國的金融機構屈指可數(shù)，多數(shù)金融機構的大部分歐洲員工依然在英國辦公。MarketAxess和AM Best在阿姆斯特丹分別有10名和12名員工，而在倫敦的員工數(shù)量分別是120名和70名。但一旦英國正式脫歐，來自阿姆斯特丹的業(yè)務將可能增多，隨著業(yè)務中心的轉(zhuǎn)移，人員結構的平衡也將進一步調(diào)整。

Already, Citibank and JPMorgan Chase have each spent more than $100 million moving their EU hubs out of London. Bank of America relocated about 125 people to new EU headquarters in Dublin and will have another 400 in Paris, where EU banking regulators have moved from London.

Amsterdam, for its part, has become a magnet for “diversified financial” firms—a category that includes financial-data companies, brokerages, and providers of exchanges and other trading infrastructure. Most of the city’s financial headquarters belong to this category, according to New Financial, and Amsterdam has lured more such firms from Britain than any other EU city. That gives the Netherlands critical mass—likely at London’s expense. “For investors who invest for the first time in Europe, Britain will be less often on the short list,” says NFIA’s Nijland.

For firms that have moved operations out of Britain, the Brexit argument has long since been settled. “None of us could hang around waiting for politicians to agree on what to do,” says Nick Charteris-Black, managing director of market development for AM Best, the insurance rating agency headquartered in Oldwick, N.J. Last year, AM Best moved its EU headquarters from London to Amsterdam, taking space in the high-rise Zuidas financial center on the southern edge of the city, a 10-minute train ride from Schiphol Airport. “About one-third of our business has moved from London,” says Amsterdam manager Angela Yeo, as she sips a fine-brewed espresso in the lobby café of cutting-edge NoMA House, the company’s new digs. She describes NoMA as a hub for “Brexit refugees”; its anchor tenant is Kraft Heinz, which opened a “center of excellence” last year with 450 people.

Few financial firms have abandoned Britain entirely, and many keep most of their European staff there. MarketAxess has 10 staffers in Amsterdam, while 120 remain in London. AM Best has 70 people in London and about a dozen in Amsterdam. But if and when Brexit becomes official, more of their business will likely emanate from Amsterdam, and the staffing balance could eventually shift further—along with the industry’s center of gravity.

阿姆斯特丹的支持者堅稱，他們在吸引新企業(yè)方面還可以做得更好。荷蘭人并沒有為那些感興趣的企業(yè)修改法律或稅法。例如，許多銀行之所以選擇遷往巴黎、都柏林和法蘭克福而不是荷蘭，部分原因是荷蘭法律規(guī)定銀行家的獎金上限為基本年薪的20％，而這一數(shù)字在倫敦為200％，在其他歐盟國家為100％。阿姆斯特丹負責外商投資事務的高級經(jīng)理雨果·尼岑表示，法蘭克福與巴黎等城市都針對常駐倫敦的高管開展了大規(guī)模的城市推廣活動，而阿姆斯特丹的市政領導則認為開展這種活動不合時宜。他表示：“說競爭對手的壞話不會顯得我們就好?！?/p>

不過，至少有一個機構讓荷蘭下足了功夫。2016年英國脫歐公投后的第二天清晨，在倫敦剛從睡夢中醒來的諾約爾·瓦西翁有理由比大多數(shù)人都著急。瓦西翁是歐洲藥品管理局（EMA）的副執(zhí)行董事，該局職能類似于美國食品與藥品監(jiān)督管理局，從1995年開始總部就一直設在倫敦。由于EMA為歐盟實體而非私人公司，因此在英國脫歐的背景下，EMA必須完全遷出英國。作為一個在倫敦生活了20年的比利時人，瓦西翁回憶說，當時員工們都“崩潰了”。“他們的生活都在英國?！?/p>

脫歐公投迫使EMA不得不關閉其位于倫敦的總部，由此引發(fā)了最大規(guī)模單一機構工作崗位遷出行動，EMA因此而蒙受的租金損失高達6.5億美元。而對于歐洲其他地區(qū)而言，EMA則成為了他們競相爭取的香餑餑。無論哪個城市獲勝，都將從倫敦接手超過900名的高收入新市民。同時，獲勝城市還將迎來大批制藥與生物技術企業(yè)，這些企業(yè)為了完成藥物審批事宜必須與EMA緊密合作。

Still, for at least one organization, the Dutch turned on the charm. The morning after the 2016 Brexit vote, No?l Wathion woke up in London with more reason than most to be anxious. Wathion is deputy executive director of the European Medicines Agency (EMA), a bureau analogous to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration that had been headquartered in London since 1995. Because it’s an EU entity rather than a private company, under Brexit, the EMA would have to leave Britain entirely. Staffers “were devastated,” recalls Wathion, a Belgian who had lived in London for 20 years. “They had built their lives in the U.K.”

The Brexit vote effectively forced the EMA to shut down its headquarters—triggering what became the single biggest job-related move resulting from Brexit. (It also cost the agency $650 million on its London lease.) For the rest of Europe, the EMA was a giant prize to be fought over. Whichever city won could inherit more than 900 high-earning newcomers. It would also have the chance to lure an influx of pharmaceutical and biotech companies, which must work closely with the EMA to get drugs approved.

這次荷蘭可謂全力以赴。政府為EMA提供的新總部位于澤伊達斯，建筑價值3.3億美元，完全按照EMA的要求建造。同時，荷蘭政府還指出，作為旅游城市，阿姆斯特丹擁有完善的酒店配套，可供大批造訪專家居住。在宣傳片中，荷蘭兒童用流暢的英語向觀眾致敬，介紹者則風趣地向倫敦EMA的工作人員保證，“畢竟，我們（與倫敦）沒有什么不同。我們也有一位喜歡炸魚、薯條，同樣時尚的女王。” 2017年，在歐盟外交部長們的最終投票中，阿姆斯特丹和米蘭打成平手，EMA花落誰家最終由抽簽決定。讓意大利人生氣的是，抽簽選中的是遍布運河的荷蘭。

今年3月，EMA正式啟用了阿姆斯特丹的辦事處，它的到來讓荷蘭受益頗多。阿姆斯特丹的官員表示，包括日本生物技術公司樂天醫(yī)療在內(nèi)的8家醫(yī)療保健或生命科學公司已經(jīng)于去年在該市開設辦事處。據(jù)推測，這些公司選址多在EMA附近，能夠創(chuàng)造數(shù)百個工作崗位。杜邦、英國醫(yī)療技術公司Aparito和總部位于南非的Synexa Life Sciences等企業(yè)都將其歐洲總部設在了萊頓，距EMA也只有很短的火車車程。

當你在阿姆斯特丹散步或騎行時，很容易理解為什么“英國脫歐難民”會選擇此地作為庇護所。這里安謐的城市氛圍與歐洲大部分地區(qū)、尤其是倫敦截然不同。夜間時分，騎行在郊區(qū)小道上時，你會看到公園里到處都是入夜后還在踢球的孩子。芝加哥期權交易所（CBOE）的歐洲區(qū)總裁亞當·埃德斯是該機構搬遷選址負責人。他說，在阿姆斯特丹、法蘭克福、都柏林、巴黎和馬德里等城市中，他最終選擇了阿姆斯特丹。CBOE的歐盟區(qū)新總部位于澤伊達斯，與AM Best同處一座大樓。埃德斯表示，因為妻子、子女還都在倫敦的緣故，他每周都會往返于兩地之間。但是“（阿姆斯特丹）比（倫敦）平靜得多?！彼f。

The Netherlands threw itself into an all-out fight. The government offered a $330 million headquarters in Zuidas, built to EMA’s specs. It noted that tourist-friendly Amsterdam had hotel space for the hordes of specialists who would visit. It produced a video in which Dutch children greeted viewers in flawless English, while a narrator reassured EMA staff in London that “after all, we are not that different. We also have a very stylish queen and enjoy fish and chips.” In 2017, the final vote by EU foreign ministers resulted in a tie between Amsterdam and Milan. To the fury of Italian politicians, the winning city was drawn out of a bowl—and had lots of canals.

The EMA officially set up shop in Amsterdam this March, and its arrival has already paid off for the Netherlands. Eight health care or life-sciences companies, including Japanese biotech firm Rakuten Medical, opened offices in the city last year, Amsterdam officials say, presumably to be in proximity to the EMA, bringing with them hundreds of jobs. DuPont, British med-tech company Aparito, and South Africa–based Synexa Life Sciences have all opened European headquarters in Leiden, a short train ride away.

Walk—or cycle—around Amsterdam, and it’s easy to see why “Brexit refugees” would choose it as their sanctuary. Its calm atmosphere is in striking contrast to much of Europe, especially London. On a nighttime bike ride through the suburbs, I see parks filled with children playing soccer long after dark. Adam Eades, president of the European unit of the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), had the job of deciding where it would relocate. Amsterdam, he says, beat out Frankfurt, Dublin, Paris, and Madrid. Eades shuttles weekly from London, where his wife and child still live, to CBOE’s new EU headquarters in the same Zuidas building as AM Best. “It is much less frantic here,” he says.

合理的房價是埃德斯選擇新總部時的另外一個標準。事實證明，這要難得多。烏得勒支住宅投資顧問公司Capital Value稱，自英國脫歐公投以來，阿姆斯特丹的房地產(chǎn)價格已經(jīng)上漲約36％。800平方英尺（約75平米）的公寓每月租金約1,800歐元（2,000美元），購買費用約500,000歐元（550,000美元）。前提還是你得能夠找到賣家。許多限價房屋的租房排隊表已經(jīng)排到了13年之后。AM Best公司的伊奧表示，為了應對不斷飆升的居住成本，公司被迫上調(diào)了新員工的薪水。

瑞銀（UBS）最近的一份報告顯示，倫敦房價已經(jīng)下跌，而阿姆斯特丹的房價則已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)泡沫，房價已經(jīng)成了時代變遷的標志。Expat Help是一家專業(yè)搬家公司，該公司的房產(chǎn)經(jīng)理艾格·德·維爾表示，他們已經(jīng)為700多名EMA員工提供了搬家服務。其中許多人選擇在阿姆斯特丹租房居住，同時持有自己在倫敦的房產(chǎn)，希望等到英鎊復蘇時再出手。德·維爾說：“大家都沒有什么頭緒，都在等英國脫歐的結果?！?/p>

Eades had one more criterion: reasonably priced housing. That has proved far more elusive. Amsterdam’s property values have shot up about 36% since the Brexit vote, according to Capital Value, residential investment advisers in Utrecht. An 800-square-foot apartment costs about 1,800 euros a month ($2,000) to rent, or about 500,000 euros ($550,000) to buy. And that’s if you can find one. Many units are rent-controlled, with 13-year waiting lists. Yeo, of AM Best, says her company was forced to revise upwards its offers to new recruits, to account for soaring housing costs.

In a sign of changing times, London home prices have sunk, while Amsterdam’s have hit bubble-risk territory, according to a recent UBS report. Eeg De Veer, housing manager for relocation experts Expat Help, says his company has helped resettle more than 700 EMA staffers. Many are keeping their London homes while renting in Amsterdam, waiting for the British pound to recover before they commit to selling and reinvesting. “Everyone is in a vacuum,” De Veer says, “waiting to see what will happen with Brexit.”

乘公交從澤伊達斯出發(fā)，駛出不遠就能夠看到高樓大廈逐漸退去，取而代之的則是流向北海的運河，以及沿河而建的低矮倉庫，在運河盡頭就是阿姆斯特丹港。數(shù)個世紀以前，從這里出發(fā)的荷蘭商人將荷蘭變成了一個商業(yè)巨人，他們幫助開辟了海上絲綢之路，可以說是全球貿(mào)易的開創(chuàng)者。阿姆斯特丹港也是全球最大的可可豆加工場，星巴克的大型倉庫就坐落于此。來這里參觀那天，我老遠就能夠聞到濃烈的巧克力味。

由于擔心英國脫歐會帶來劇烈動蕩，阿姆斯特丹港和更大、更繁忙的鹿特丹港的港務當局提前幾個月就已經(jīng)在著手準備應對措施。如果英國脫歐成功，那么所有進出英國的貨物都必須進行海關申報，而這一機制已經(jīng)有近30年沒有啟用過。荷蘭估計，截至2030年，受英國脫歐影響，荷蘭每年的損失將高達其GDP的1.2％，相當于每年約100億歐元。（據(jù)估計，英國將遭受更大的損失。）

A short bus ride from from Zuidas, office towers give way to low-rise warehouses along a blustery channel feeding into the North Sea: the port of Amsterdam. From here, centuries ago, Dutch merchants turned the Netherlands into a commercial giant, helping to open the Silk Road and virtually invent global trade. Starbucks’ mammoth warehouses are here, and the port is the world’s biggest processor of cocoa beans; a strong smell of chocolate wafted over the terminal on the day I visited.

Port authorities in Amsterdam and larger, busier Rotterdam have spent months preparing for Brexit, fearing total upheaval. If the U.K. leaves the union, all British imports and exports will require customs declarations—a regime that has not existed for 30 years. The Netherlands estimates Brexit could reduce its GDP by up to 1.2%, or about 10 billion euros annually, by 2030. (Britain, by most estimates, will suffer much greater damage.)

TMA物流的總經(jīng)理邁克爾·范·托萊多表示：“進出口商的成本肯定會增加，” TMA物流旗下每周有六艘次集裝箱船往返于英國和荷蘭之間。前往英國的船只上會載滿食物和其他商品。荷蘭向英國出口大量的魚、切塊土豆和蛋黃醬，都是制作炸魚薯條的基本原料，英國自己只生產(chǎn)很少一部分這類食材。運回阿姆斯特丹的是什么呢？主要是垃圾，真正的垃圾。范·托萊多解釋說，部分倫敦人家里的垃圾被當作燃料為阿姆斯特丹40,000戶家庭提供電力。

頗為諷刺的是，如今這樣的生活已經(jīng)如同燒掉的垃圾一樣成了過眼云煙。而且，隨著英國脫歐鬧劇繼續(xù)上演，新來者正在考慮他們此前未曾想過的選項：成為荷蘭人。

MarketAxess荷蘭業(yè)務主管喬佛里·范德·林登在倫敦工作了12年，現(xiàn)在搬到了阿姆斯特丹生活。在《財富》雜志12月刊出版之際，他正期待著自己第一個孩子——一個荷蘭男孩的降生。他的同事瑞安·拉夫斯克勞福特告訴我，她的孩子塞倫現(xiàn)在能夠說一口流利的荷蘭語，“甚至剛參加了她生命中的第一場自行車比賽！”現(xiàn)年35歲的托恩是瑞安的丈夫，擔任M＆C Saatchi體育娛樂公司的經(jīng)營合伙人，因為公司將在阿姆斯特丹開設新的歐盟總部，不久他也將從倫敦搬來這里。目前尚不清楚這對夫婦是否還會返回倫敦。瑞安表示，無論英國脫歐結果如何，“阿姆斯特丹都是一個很適合養(yǎng)家的好地方?！保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng)）

本文另一版本登載于《財富》雜志2019年12月刊，標題為《英國脫歐惠及荷蘭》。

譯者：梁宇

審校：夏林

“Exporters and importers will have increased costs for sure,” says Michael van Toledo, general manager of TMA Logistics. TMA oversees six container-ship crossings per week between Britain and the Netherlands. The vessels headed to Britain are laden with food and other goods. (The Netherlands sends vast quantities of fish, cut potatoes, and mayonnaise, basics for fish-and-chips meals; Britain produces little of its own.) Those arriving in Amsterdam? Most are filled with trash—?literally. Some of Londoners’ household waste, van Toledo explains, is incinerated and turned into electricity for 40,000 Amsterdam homes.

It’s intriguing to imagine London’s garbage lighting the homes of former residents whose old lives, like the trash, have gone up in smoke. Now, as the Brexit wrangling continues, the newcomers are considering a future they could not have predicted before: becoming Dutch.

Geoffroy Vander Linden, head of MarketAxess’s Netherlands business, is now living in Amsterdam after 12 years in London. He was expecting his first child—a baby boy to be born in Holland—as Fortune went to press. His colleague, Rhian Ravenscroft, says her toddler, Seren, is now fluent in Dutch: “She even competed in her first bike race!” Rhian’s husband, Toan, 35, will soon move from London to be management partner of M&C Saatchi Sports and Entertainment, which will open its new EU headquarters in Amsterdam. It is not clear the couple will ever return to London. However Brexit plays out, Rhian says, “this is a lovely place to raise a family.”?

A version of this article appears in the December 2019 issue of Fortune with the headline “Brexit Goes Dutch.”