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決定未來(lái)職業(yè)發(fā)展的七大趨勢(shì)

決定未來(lái)職業(yè)發(fā)展的七大趨勢(shì)

《財(cái)富》 2016年02月24日
要是你忽視這些趨勢(shì),未來(lái)的職業(yè)道路就會(huì)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn),搞不好還會(huì)徹底失業(yè)。

本文明確的七大趨勢(shì)必將對(duì)各類職業(yè)、創(chuàng)業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)、未來(lái)員工所需的技能產(chǎn)生影響。文中對(duì)未來(lái)大趨勢(shì)的預(yù)判旨在幫你了解可能會(huì)受哪些影響,以及今后需要為職業(yè)道路做怎樣的準(zhǔn)備。

全球化:你真的不是一個(gè)人在戰(zhàn)斗!

當(dāng)前全球商業(yè)正在發(fā)生重大轉(zhuǎn)變。咨詢公司麥肯錫預(yù)計(jì),全球半數(shù)大企業(yè)都將把總部設(shè)在新興市場(chǎng),如巴西、印度和東歐國(guó)家。由于世界范圍內(nèi)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的壓力和其他因素,2000年曾入選《財(cái)富》美國(guó)500強(qiáng)的企業(yè)中,竟然有四成以上在2010年都落榜了,新上位的都是業(yè)界新貴和科技企業(yè)。

改變工作的定義:靈活適應(yīng)完成新任務(wù)

什么是工作?在網(wǎng)上可以搜索工作的定義就不難發(fā)現(xiàn),已經(jīng)幾乎沒(méi)人會(huì)局限于谷歌搜索引擎提供的第一種定義:一個(gè)穩(wěn)定的帶薪崗位。當(dāng)然,我們干活拿薪水,但只從一個(gè)收入來(lái)源,還要穩(wěn)定?

如今的工作更像是谷歌的第二種定義:一項(xiàng)任務(wù)或者某種工作的一部分,特別是帶薪的那種。眼下的新常態(tài)是,同時(shí)將多個(gè)職位合并在一起,或者聘請(qǐng)自由職業(yè)者完成一系列工作。

由于工作量不斷變化,無(wú)論勞動(dòng)者的技能和意愿是否完全匹配,都要靈活適應(yīng)完成任務(wù)。83%以上的高管告訴我們,今后幾年計(jì)劃增加臨時(shí)的兼職人員或者工作時(shí)間靈活的員工。這意味著,企業(yè)會(huì)為某個(gè)具體項(xiàng)目聘用具備相關(guān)技能的人才,而不再提供全職崗位。

工作完成的方式也在迅速轉(zhuǎn)變。隨著工作時(shí)間和個(gè)人時(shí)間相互交織,工作日和私人時(shí)間的界限也越來(lái)越模糊。工作不再指代某個(gè)場(chǎng)所,而是指一件事。

復(fù)雜性:越復(fù)雜,越挑戰(zhàn)

企業(yè)和個(gè)人都越來(lái)越復(fù)雜。在企業(yè)方面,隨著各國(guó)政府監(jiān)管層級(jí)累加,復(fù)雜性隨之增加。而不同客戶的獨(dú)特需求,也將進(jìn)一步增加這種復(fù)雜性。

在這種情況下,企業(yè)唯有精簡(jiǎn)結(jié)構(gòu),進(jìn)一步簡(jiǎn)化流程、系統(tǒng),重振企業(yè)文化,才能夠在未來(lái)?yè)碛懈?jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)。

而對(duì)于個(gè)人而言,一方面要把握復(fù)雜形勢(shì),另一方面要平衡各方面不斷增長(zhǎng)的需求。斯坦福大學(xué)的研究者就指出了影響員工整體健康和幸福的許多壓力因素,包括長(zhǎng)時(shí)間工作、對(duì)職業(yè)的不安全感、工作與家庭生活的沖突等。

相關(guān)研究一致認(rèn)為,這些大趨勢(shì)將確立未來(lái)職場(chǎng)的格局。一些趨勢(shì)也許看來(lái)和日常生活無(wú)關(guān),還有些趨勢(shì)可能正在經(jīng)歷。但所有趨勢(shì)都有可能完全改變未來(lái)的工作方式,還有可能令很多人,甚至某些領(lǐng)域的專家徹底過(guò)時(shí)。

人口結(jié)構(gòu)變化:退休年齡整整延長(zhǎng)了10歲!

在全球多個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體,醫(yī)療保健的進(jìn)步和出生率下降已經(jīng)導(dǎo)致人口老齡化、勞動(dòng)力規(guī)模萎縮。隨著國(guó)民壽命和工作年限延長(zhǎng),預(yù)計(jì)當(dāng)前大部分勞動(dòng)人口的平均退休年齡將為66歲。這整整延長(zhǎng)了10歲!二十年前評(píng)價(jià)退休年齡是57歲。

在大部分國(guó)家,千禧一代是目前人數(shù)最多的勞動(dòng)群體。他們通過(guò)社交媒體積極發(fā)聲,日漸改變了職場(chǎng)文化。

數(shù)據(jù)爆炸:重新會(huì)學(xué)挖掘新機(jī)會(huì)

專家預(yù)計(jì),2009至2020年,數(shù)據(jù)總量將增長(zhǎng)43倍。一些數(shù)據(jù)是過(guò)去的存量?jī)?nèi)容,可以很方便地導(dǎo)入這些數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù),另外一些日漸增長(zhǎng)的數(shù)據(jù)則是非結(jié)構(gòu)化的,例如來(lái)自Twitter、Instagram、Facebook、Vine等社交媒體網(wǎng)站的數(shù)據(jù)。

認(rèn)真挖掘數(shù)據(jù)并從中找出消費(fèi)趨勢(shì)的機(jī)構(gòu),將成為未來(lái)市場(chǎng)的領(lǐng)軍人物。

新興科技:機(jī)器人來(lái)了!

在眾多新興的科技之中,機(jī)器人是尤為值得一提的。到2030年,預(yù)計(jì)日本人口三分之一超過(guò)65歲,每五人中有一人年逾75歲,老年人看護(hù)的需求極大。這就難怪日本在研發(fā)服務(wù)型機(jī)器人方面走在最前面了。

在一家2015年新開的酒店里,一款名為Actroid的仿真機(jī)器人已經(jīng)上崗,為客人們提供入住服務(wù)。此外,一些護(hù)理機(jī)構(gòu)里也正興起讓機(jī)器人參與看護(hù)。這些都意味著護(hù)理行業(yè)許多入門級(jí)工作將不再需要人類。

氣候變化:每個(gè)人都在碳排放計(jì)算之列

氣候變化未來(lái)將對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生很大影響。經(jīng)合組織預(yù)計(jì),到2050年,全世界40%以上的人口都將遭遇嚴(yán)重的水資源壓力,而面臨洪災(zāi)或者旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的資產(chǎn)價(jià)值,更是會(huì)增長(zhǎng)至創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的高位。

節(jié)省資源是一項(xiàng)社會(huì)責(zé)任,也有益于節(jié)省成本。政府控制能耗、浪費(fèi)、漏水、城市擁堵、運(yùn)輸效率、土地退化、貨運(yùn)影響等其他因素的監(jiān)管措施越來(lái)越多,企業(yè)應(yīng)該適應(yīng)形勢(shì),允許員工遠(yuǎn)程工作,這不但可以削減對(duì)硬件設(shè)施的需求,也能夠幫助企業(yè)盡量減少碳排放。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

本文節(jié)選自卡里?威利爾德和芭芭拉?米絲蒂克合著的《伸展力:如何為未來(lái)的職場(chǎng)做好準(zhǔn)備》。

譯者:Pessy

校對(duì):夏林

We have identified seven megatrends that will certainly have an impact on the types of jobs, entrepreneurial opportunities, and skills needed for workers in the future. This big-picture review is meant to help you see how they might affect you, and what you will need to do to prepare for the workplace of tomorrow.

Globalization

A major shift in where business is conducted is occurring now. McKinsey estimates that half of the world’s largest companies will be headquartered in what are now emerging markets, such as Brazil, India, and eastern European countries. Pressure from global competition and other factors resulted in over 40% of the companies that were in the Fortune 500 in 2000 falling off the list by 2010. These were replaced largely by new global entrants and technology companies.

Redefined Jobs

What is a job? Look over a few definitions on the web and it’s easy to see that few of us are still limited to Google’s first meaning: “a paid position of regular employment.” Sure, we have paid work, but from only one source and in a regular fashion?

Instead, the definition of a job looks more like the second meaning from Google: “a task or piece of work, especially one that is paid.” Piecing together multiple gigs at the same time or freelancing in a series of work-for-hire roles is a new normal. The nature of fluctuating workloads requires moving to meet those needs, whether your skills and motivation match or not. Over 83% of executives told us that they plan on increasing their use of contingent, part-time, or flexible workers in the next few years. Those with in-demand skills will be hired to accomplish one specific project, rather than given a full-time position.

The nature of how work gets done is rapidly shifting. Even the lines between workday and personal time are blurring, since work and personal time blend and overlap. Work is no longer a place, but a thing.

Complexity

Complexity is increasing for both organizations and individuals. At the organizational level, complexity multiplies with layers upon layers of government regulations, in multiple countries, combined with requirements from customers with their own unique specifications.

Organizations that can streamline and simplify structures, processes, systems, and cultures will have the competitive advantage in the future.

At the individual level, the need to master this complexity and balance competing demands is also on the increase. Stanford researchers identified a number of stressors that affect overall health and wellness for employees, including long hours, job insecurity, work-family conflict, and others.

Studies agree resoundingly that these megatrends are forging the working landscape of the future. Some trends may seem far removed from your everyday world; others you may already be experiencing. All of them have the potential to change the way we work in substantial ways, threatening to make many people and even experts in their fields obsolete.

Demographics Shifts

In many economies around the world, advances in healthcare and declining birth rates have resulted in a population that is graying and a workforce that is shrinking. People are living and working longer, with the average retirement age for most people working now expected to be 66, up from 57 two decades ago.

Millennials are now the largest generation in the workplace in most countries, and their voices, connected through social media, will increasingly alter the workplace culture.

Explosion of Data

Experts estimate that from 2009 to 2020, data will grow 4300%. That data will be in the form of content from the past that can be readily structured into a database, and will also increasingly include unstructured data such as that found in social media sites like Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, Vine, and so on.

Organizations that can mine this data to reveal customer trends will lead the markets of the future.

Emerging Technologies

One of the many emerging technologies worthy of mention is robotics. Japan is expecting one in three of its population to be over the age of 65 by 2030, and one in five to be over 75, creating a major requirement for the care of the elderly. Not surprisingly then, Japan is on the leading edge of using robots in service roles. A hotel opened in Japan in 2015 with lifelike robots, called actroids, serving as the check-in staff. Aid assistance in nursing facilities is on the horizon, meaning many of the entry-level jobs in those areas will become obsolete.

Climate change

Climate change will have a strong economic impact in the future. The OECD anticipates that by 2050, more than 40% of the world’s population will live under severe water stress, resulting in floods or drought that, combined, can put the economic value of assets at risk at record highs.

Becoming efficient with resources is socially responsible and cost beneficial. Organizations need to adapt to increasing regulations controlling energy efficiency, waste, water leakage, urban congestion, transportation efficiency, land degradation, freight impact, and other factors. Allowing employees to work virtually also reduces the need for facilities and helps organizations minimize their carbon footprints.

This article is excerpted from STRETCH: How to Future-Proof Yourself for Tomorrow’s Workplace by Karie Willyerd and Barbara Mistick. Copyright 2016 by Karie Willyerd and Barbara Mistick. Published by Wiley; used by permission. All rights reserved. This book is available at all bookstores and online booksellers.

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