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專欄 - 蘋果2_0

蘋果2季度業(yè)績(jī)大超預(yù)期,但iPad銷量除外

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2011年04月22日

蘋果(Apple)公司內(nèi)部流傳著一個(gè)老笑話,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現(xiàn)實(shí)扭曲力場(chǎng)”:你離他太近的話,就會(huì)相信他所說的話。蘋果的數(shù)百萬用戶中已經(jīng)有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,而很多蘋果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿。不過,Elmer-DeWitt認(rèn)為,在報(bào)道蘋果公司時(shí)有點(diǎn)懷疑精神不是壞事。聽他的應(yīng)該沒錯(cuò)。要知道,他自從1982年就開始報(bào)道蘋果、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經(jīng)營該公司。
1,865萬臺(tái)iPhone手機(jī)和376萬臺(tái)Mac電腦推動(dòng)蘋果公司2季度銷售額增長(zhǎng)83%,利潤(rùn)增長(zhǎng)95%。

圖片來源:Google Finance

????蘋果公司(Apple)本周三如期公布了創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的第二季度業(yè)績(jī),所有數(shù)據(jù)都超越了公司指導(dǎo)值和華爾街的預(yù)測(cè),但iPad銷售除外。

????“伴隨著季度營收增長(zhǎng)83%,利潤(rùn)增長(zhǎng)95%,我們正在全速前進(jìn),”史蒂夫?喬布斯在一份準(zhǔn)備好的聲明中表示,“今年余下時(shí)間我們將繼續(xù)全面推進(jìn)創(chuàng)新。”聲明只字未提那些iPad數(shù)據(jù)。

????華爾街原本預(yù)計(jì)iPad銷量會(huì)達(dá)到630萬臺(tái),明顯高于蘋果公司此次公布的469萬臺(tái)。但鑒于長(zhǎng)長(zhǎng)的等待購買名單和運(yùn)輸延遲,2季度iPad銷量低于預(yù)期顯然是供應(yīng)所致,而非需求問題。

????“我們生產(chǎn)的所有iPad 2都已售出,”蘋果首席財(cái)務(wù)官彼得?奧本海默在分析師電話會(huì)議上表示。蘋果首席營運(yùn)官蒂姆?庫克稱這是“非常嚴(yán)重的訂單積壓”(mother of all backlogs)。

????蘋果股價(jià)繼周三收盤上漲4.55美元后,在盤后交易中再漲近14美元。

????細(xì)看來自季報(bào)電話會(huì)議的數(shù)據(jù)和細(xì)節(jié):

????? 銷售額: 246.7億美元,同比增長(zhǎng)82.8%

????? 利潤(rùn): 59.9億美元,增長(zhǎng)95%

????? 每股收益: 6.4美元,增長(zhǎng)92%

????? iPhone銷量: 1,865萬臺(tái),增長(zhǎng)113% (!)

????? 美國iPhone銷量增長(zhǎng)155%,部分得益于Verizon;大中華區(qū)增長(zhǎng)250%

????? iPad銷量: 469萬臺(tái),低于1季度的733萬臺(tái)

????? iPad銷售流通:510萬臺(tái),原因是庫存下降

????? Mac銷量: 376萬臺(tái),增長(zhǎng)28%。亞太地區(qū)Mac銷量增長(zhǎng)76%

????? iPod銷量: 902萬臺(tái),下降17%。超過50%為iPod touch

????? iTunes商店: 銷售額14億美元

????? 毛利潤(rùn)率: 41.4%,指導(dǎo)值為38.5%

????? 蘋果直營店: 客流量7,110萬人次,增長(zhǎng)50%

????? 直營店銷售額: 31.9億美元,增長(zhǎng)90%

????? 現(xiàn)金和可售證券: 658億美元,高于1季度的597億美元

????? 3季度營業(yè)收入指導(dǎo)值: 230億美元

????? 3季度每股收益指導(dǎo)值: 5.03美元

????? 3季度毛利潤(rùn)率指導(dǎo)值: 38%

????分析師們提出的第一個(gè)問題是日本大地震對(duì)蘋果公司供應(yīng)鏈的影響。首席營運(yùn)官蒂姆?庫克表示,2季度蘋果未感到有何影響,3季度估計(jì)也不會(huì)有“重大”影響,但6月份以后可能存在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)?!叭绻惺裁词虑閷?dǎo)致狀況惡化,會(huì)讓我擔(dān)心?!?/p>

????庫克對(duì)蘋果公司電腦銷量的增長(zhǎng)尤感興奮,特別是在IDC上周公布整體個(gè)人電腦市場(chǎng)銷量下滑3%的情況下。這是Mac電腦連續(xù)第二十個(gè)季度銷量表現(xiàn)強(qiáng)于同類電腦?!拔覀兯坪跏沁@個(gè)領(lǐng)域內(nèi)唯一生產(chǎn)創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品的人,”庫克表示。

????此外,庫克還批評(píng)了Android手機(jī),將蘋果的一體化模式與谷歌(Google)的分散化模式進(jìn)行了有失偏頗的比較。他說,用戶們喜歡蘋果全盤負(fù)責(zé)iPhone體驗(yàn),分散化模式是將用戶變成系統(tǒng)整合者,“而我知道很少有客戶希望成為系統(tǒng)整合者”。

????當(dāng)被問到喬布斯何時(shí)能重返工作崗位,庫克出言謹(jǐn)慎。他說,“我們定期與他碰頭”,喬布斯仍在參與公司的戰(zhàn)略決策,“我知道他確實(shí)希望盡早回來。”

????至于本周早些時(shí)候蘋果公司提起的三星(Samsung)知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)訴訟案,庫克表示三星仍是一家重要的供應(yīng)商,但蘋果公司感到三星移動(dòng)部門已“越過了界線”。由于無法協(xié)商解決這個(gè)問題,蘋果公司決定訴至法庭。

????Macworld網(wǎng)站已發(fā)布經(jīng)過編輯的此次電話會(huì)議紀(jì)錄,具體可點(diǎn)擊這里。Seeking Alpha應(yīng)會(huì)發(fā)布有關(guān)內(nèi)容。兩周內(nèi)你還能在蘋果公司網(wǎng)站上聆聽音頻網(wǎng)播,具體可點(diǎn)擊這里。

????As expected, Apple (AAPL) reported record second quarter earnings Wednesday, blowing past its own guidance and Wall Street's expectations in everything but iPad sales.

????"With quarterly revenue growth of 83 percent and profit growth of 95 percent, we're firing on all cylinders," said Steve Jobs in a prepared statement that said nothing about those iPad numbers. "We will continue to innovate on all fronts throughout the remainder of the year."

????Wall Street had been expecting iPad sales on the order of 6.3 million units, considerably more than the 4.69 million Apple reported. But given the long lines and shipping delays, the shortfall was clearly due to supply issues, not demand.

????"We sold every iPad 2 we could make," said CFO Peter Oppenheimer in the conference call with analysts. COO Tim Cook described the situation as "the mother of all backlogs."

????Apple shares, which closed up $4.55, rose nearly $14 more in after-hours trading.

????Below the fold: The numbers and details from the earnings call.

????? Sales: $24.67 billion, up 82.8% year over year

????? Profits: $5.99 billion, up 95%

????? EPS: $6.4, up 92%

????? iPhone: 18.65 million units, up 113% (!)

????? U.S. iPhone sales were up 155%, thanks in part to Verizon; Greater China up 250%

????? iPad: 4.69 million units, compared with 7.33 million in Q1.

????? iPad sell-through was 5.1 million units, given the decline in inventory

????? Mac: 3.76 million units, up 28%. Asia-Pacific Mac sales up 76%.

????? iPod: 9.02 million units, down 17%. More than 50% iPod touch

????? iTunes store: Sales of $1.4 billion

????? Gross margin: 41.4%, compared with guidance of 38.5%

????? Apple stores: 71.1 million visitors, up 50%

????? Store sales: $3.19 billion, up 90%

????? Cash and marketable securities: $65.8 billion, up from 59.7 in Q1

????? Revenue guidance for Q3: $23 billion

????? EPS guidance for Q3: $5.03

????? Gross margin guidance for Q3: 38%

????The first question from analysts addressed the impact of the Japanese earthquakes on the company's supply chain. According to COO Tim Cook, Apple experienced no impact in Q2 and anticipated no "material" impact for Q3, although he said there are risks beyond June. "I would worry if something happened and things took a turn for the worse."

????Cook was particularly enthusiastic about the growth in Apple's computer sales, especially in the face of the 3% decline in the broader PC market reported last week by IDC. This is the 20th quarter in a row that the Mac has outperformed its competitors. "We seem to be the only guys building innovative products in that space," Cook said.

????He also took a swipe at the Android phones, comparing Apple's "integrated" approach unfavorably to Google's "fragmented" approach. Users appreciate that Apple takes full responsibility for the iPhone experience, according to Cook. The fragmented approach, he said, turns customers into systems integrators. "And I know very few customers who want to be a systems integrator."

????Asked when Steve Jobs would return, Cook spoke carefully. "We do see him on a regular basis," he said, and Jobs continues to be involved in strategic decisions. "I know that he wants to be back as soon as he can."

????With regards the intellectual property lawsuit Apple filed against Samsung earlier this week, Cook said that Samsung remains a valuable supplier, but that Apple felt its mobile division had "crossed the line." After failing to resolve the issues, Apple decided to leave them to the courts.

????Macworld has posted an edited transcript of the conference call here. Seeking Alpha's should be available later this evening. You can hear Apple's audio webcast here for the next two weeks.

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