|
????摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席蘋果分析師凱斯琳?休伯蒂近日拜訪了史蒂夫?喬布斯的三位左膀右臂：首席財(cái)務(wù)官彼得?奧本海默，打造蘋果商店的前Target高管羅恩?約翰遜，以及負(fù)責(zé)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)服務(wù)的高級(jí)副總裁艾迪?庫(kù)伊。 ????顯然，會(huì)面并未披露公司機(jī)密。蘋果公司(Apple)的三位高管并未確認(rèn)下一代iPhone的上市時(shí)間已推遲至9月份?？磥硭麄冎皇欠悍旱卣劦搅颂岣遡Phone普及率(目前為90個(gè)國(guó)家/地區(qū)和185家運(yùn)營(yíng)商)，建設(shè)更多更大的蘋果直營(yíng)店(每年50家以內(nèi))以及遵循更受軟件(而非硬件)驅(qū)動(dòng)的產(chǎn)品周期(6月份可能對(duì)iOS功能進(jìn)行重大調(diào)整？)。 ????不過，休伯蒂離開時(shí)對(duì)蘋果公司的信心仍達(dá)到了空前的高度，上周四她在發(fā)給客戶的報(bào)告中坦言對(duì)樂觀情境的“信心上升”，即未來兩年iPhone銷量每年增長(zhǎng)55%，iPad銷量增長(zhǎng)74%，Macs銷量增長(zhǎng)17%，股價(jià)將從上周三收盤價(jià)349.57美元上漲54%至540美元。 ????她的基礎(chǔ)情境目標(biāo)價(jià)為428美元/股 (3月份以來已上調(diào)18美元)，假定2011年蘋果銷售7,200萬部iPhone，3000萬臺(tái)iPad，而Mac銷售增幅是個(gè)人電腦市場(chǎng)的三倍。她的悲觀情境目標(biāo)價(jià)為270美元/股，假定銷量?jī)H及華爾街預(yù)期(即6,500萬部iPhone，2,500萬臺(tái)iPad)以及市場(chǎng)仍困擾于史蒂夫?喬布斯的長(zhǎng)期病假。 ????但她并不相信這一點(diǎn)：“我們認(rèn)為蘋果股價(jià)反映了未來營(yíng)收增長(zhǎng)將顯著放緩的預(yù)期，但從幾項(xiàng)長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力來看，營(yíng)收增長(zhǎng)顯著放緩缺乏依據(jù)?！?/p> ????在休伯蒂看來，長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力包括： ????1. 2012年LTE iPhone升級(jí)周期和定價(jià)較低的3G版iPhone ????2. 平板電腦市場(chǎng)擴(kuò)大，中長(zhǎng)期而言蘋果保持市場(chǎng)主導(dǎo)地位 ????3. 拓展在中國(guó)的分銷 ????4. 2012-13年蘋果可能進(jìn)入智能電視市場(chǎng) ????休伯蒂的三大情境： |
????Katheryn ("Katy") Huberty, Morgan Stanley's chief Apple analyst, met recently with three of Steve Jobs' top lieutenants: Peter Oppenheimer, the money man; Ron Johnson, the former Target exec who built the Apple Stores; and Eddy Cue, the senior vice president in charge of Internet services. ????Apparently no company secrets were revealed. The Apple execs would not confirm that the next iPhone launch has been pushed back to September, and they seem to have talked in only the broadest terms about expanding iPhone penetration (from 90 countries and 185 carriers today), building more and larger stores (up to 50 per year) and following a product cycle that's driven more by software than hardware (major iOS feature update in June?). ????Still, Huberty came away more bullish on Apple (AAPL) than ever, judging from the note to clients she issued Thursday, with "increasing confidence" in a bull case scenario in which iPhone sales grow 55% per year over the next two years, iPad sales grow 74%, Macs grow 17% and the stock hits $540, up 54% from Wednesday's close of $349.57. ????Her base-case target, $428 per share (up $18 from March), assumes that Apple sells 72 million iPhones in 2011 and 30 million iPads, with Mac unit sales growing three times as fast as the PC market. She's also got a $270/share "bear case," in which unit sales barely meet Wall Street's expectations (65 million iPhones, 25 million iPads) and traders remain obsessed with Steve Jobs' medical leave. ????But she's not buying it: "We believe AAPL shares discount a significant deceleration in top-line growth that is unjustified in light of several long-term growth drivers." ????These include, according to Huberty: ????1. LTE iPhone upgrade cycle and lower priced 3G iPhone in 2012 ????2. Larger tablet market and continued Apple market dominance longer-term ????3. Expanding distribution in China ????4. Potential for Apple to enter the Smart TV market in 2012-13. ????Huberty's three cases: |
相關(guān)稿件
最新文章