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????眼下已到了第二季度中段，投資公司Sterne Agee的分析師吳肖（Shaw Wu，音譯）與他在蘋果公司供應(yīng)鏈中的消息來(lái)源進(jìn)行了核實(shí)之后，于上周五提高了他對(duì)iPad2的銷量預(yù)期，并把蘋果的目標(biāo)股價(jià)由445美元上調(diào)到460美元。盡管最近賣方分析師的熱情很高，但蘋果股價(jià)未受影響，上周五僅收于340.53美元。

????吳肖的報(bào)告中有以下亮點(diǎn)：

????? 一季度影響iPad出貨量的生產(chǎn)問(wèn)題已經(jīng)“得到了顯著改善”。他還寫道：“隨著舊生產(chǎn)線的成功改組，以及更多生產(chǎn)線轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)閕Pad2的生產(chǎn)線，蘋果的收益和產(chǎn)量也有所提高?！钡罱袌?bào)道指出蘋果公司出現(xiàn)了“零件荒”和“用工荒”。吳肖的報(bào)告在這一點(diǎn)上與那些報(bào)道有些出入。

????? 吳肖提出的目標(biāo)是，到2011年下半年，iPad的出貨量會(huì)達(dá)到每月300萬(wàn)到400萬(wàn)臺(tái)。他表示，要達(dá)到這個(gè)目標(biāo)，iPad“還有一段路要走”，但是現(xiàn)在離這個(gè)目標(biāo)“越來(lái)越近了”。

????? 消費(fèi)者對(duì)iPhone4的需求優(yōu)于預(yù)期，這要?dú)w功于白色iPhone的延期發(fā)布，以及美國(guó)用戶對(duì)Verizon版iPhone的“持續(xù)強(qiáng)勁采用”，還有國(guó)際市場(chǎng)對(duì)iPhone4的熱情。

????? 蘋果最近在iMacs電腦上使用了英特爾Sandy Bridge四核處理器，新iMacs電腦的“渠道反饋”非?！皬?qiáng)勁”，這使吳肖相信，蘋果一度“拖后腿”的臺(tái)式電腦業(yè)務(wù)必然會(huì)出現(xiàn)反彈。

????吳肖吳對(duì)蘋果公司第二季度（截止到6月25日）的預(yù)測(cè)是：iPad的銷量從先前預(yù)測(cè)的590萬(wàn)臺(tái)上漲到680萬(wàn)臺(tái)；iPhone的銷量從先前預(yù)測(cè)的1600萬(wàn)臺(tái)上漲到1700萬(wàn)臺(tái)。Mac電腦的銷量從先前預(yù)測(cè)的383萬(wàn)臺(tái)上漲到390萬(wàn)臺(tái)。而由于iPad的收益改善，iPhone的銷量增加，因此吳肖也將蘋果二季度的毛利率由先前預(yù)測(cè)的38.3%上調(diào)到了39%。

????譯者：樸成奎

????Following a mid second-quarter check with his sources in Apple's (AAPL) supply chain, Sterne Agee's Shaw Wu raised his unit sales estimates Friday as well as his price target: to $460 to $445. The stock, which has been impervious to the enthusiasms of sell-side analysts lately, closed Thursday at $340.53.

????Among the highlights of the new report:

????? The production problems that hurt iPad shipments last quarter have "significantly improved," writes Wu, "with better yields and higher output due to successful retooling and conversion of more production lines to iPad 2." This would appear to contradict recent reports of shortages of both components and labor.

????? The iPad "still has a ways" to go to hit what Wu says is Apple's goal of 3-4 million units per month by the second half of 2011, but is "getting closer."

????? Demand for the iPhone 4 appears to be holding up better than expected, thanks to the belated launch of the white iPhone and what Wu says is "continued strong adoption" at Verizon (VZ) and Apple's international markets.

????? "Channel feedback" on Apple's recently refreshed Intel (INTC) Sandy Bridge quad-core iMacs is "strong," leading Wu to believe Apple's desktop Mac business, which had been "a laggard," is set to rebound.

????Wu's new estimates for the quarter than ends June 25: 6.8 million iPads (from 5.9 million), 17 million iPhones (from 16 million), and 3.9 million Macs (from 3.83 million) and a gross margin of 39% (from 38.3%) due to improved iPad yields and higher iPhone sales.