????每當(dāng)一宗大型杠桿收購(gòu)交易公布時(shí),坊間都會(huì)對(duì)所產(chǎn)生的債務(wù)和相關(guān)杠桿條款進(jìn)行分析。目的是對(duì)交易完成后的公司營(yíng)運(yùn)狀況有所了解,并判斷買(mǎi)方所承擔(dān)的貸款是否已超出合理水平。 ????但正如我們過(guò)去幾年所看到的那樣,銀行很少愿意讓企業(yè)陷入違約的境地。原因可能是因?yàn)殂y行不愿因此產(chǎn)生短期損失(即便這會(huì)帶來(lái)長(zhǎng)期增益),或者是因?yàn)樗鼈內(nèi)狈?nèi)部團(tuán)隊(duì)來(lái)管理這樣的資產(chǎn) (盡管它們可以從大型杠桿收購(gòu)公司聘請(qǐng)到這樣的團(tuán)隊(duì))。 ????事實(shí)上,常見(jiàn)的情況是“修訂和延期”,銀行將貸款到期日延后,換取杠桿收購(gòu)公司更優(yōu)厚的償付條款。 ????我今天之所以提出這個(gè)問(wèn)題,是因?yàn)樯现苡幸晃凰侥脊蓹?quán)研究者在討論行業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)時(shí)所作的點(diǎn)評(píng) (主要圍繞已接近投資期末的2006-2007年基金。她說(shuō)她研究私募股權(quán)已經(jīng)20年了,只見(jiàn)過(guò)一次基金到期但未要求有限合伙人延期情況 (有限合伙人通常都會(huì)批準(zhǔn)延期,并對(duì)費(fèi)用做出調(diào)整)。 ????換言之,我們?cè)谝蛔诮灰谆蚰假Y剛剛完成時(shí)所作的最初分析往往隨著時(shí)間流逝而變得無(wú)足輕重。別忘了私募股權(quán)看重的是結(jié)果,而不是開(kāi)頭…… |
????Whenever a major LBO deal is announced, there is analysis of the incurred debt and related leverage terms. The idea is to get a sense of how the company will operate post-transaction, and if the sponsors are loading on more loans than a company can reasonably handle. ????But, as we've learned over the past few years, banks rarely are willing to put companies into default. Maybe it's because they don't want to incur short-term losses (even if it creates long-term gains). Or maybe it's because they don't have in-house teams to manage such assets (even though they could hire such teams from large LBO shops). ????What we got instead was "amend and extend," where banks take a pinch of flesh from LBO firms in exchange for kicking the expiration can down the road. ????I bring this up today because of a comment made last week by a private equity researcher, in discussing industry overhang (which is mostly concentrated in 2006-2007 vintage funds that are nearing the end of their investment periods. She noted that in two decades of covering PE, only once had she seen a fund's lifecycle expire without asking LPs for an extension (which LPs almost always provide, typically with fee modifications). ????In other words, what we originally analyze when a deal gets done or fund gets raised is often rendered irrelevant with the passage of time. Yet another reminder that private equity is about ends, not beginnings… |
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