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????今春的大部分時(shí)間，蘋(píng)果（Apple）的專(zhuān)項(xiàng)記者們爭(zhēng)論不休，焦點(diǎn)集中在蘋(píng)果預(yù)計(jì)今年9月份將發(fā)布的新一代iPhone究竟該如何命名。

????一些人稱(chēng)其為iPhone 5，這是為了與蘋(píng)果在三周前發(fā)布的iOS 5操作系統(tǒng)相對(duì)應(yīng)。

????另一些人則預(yù)計(jì)新iPhone并不是重新設(shè)計(jì)的新款iPhone，而是“加速版”iPhone 4，按照慣例應(yīng)該叫iPhone 4S，就像蘋(píng)果在兩年前發(fā)布的iPhone 3GS一樣。

????本周一早晨，德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的克里斯?維特莫爾在報(bào)告中告訴客戶(hù)，iPhone 5和iPhone 4S將可能同時(shí)發(fā)布。

????維特莫爾表示：“隨著諾基亞（Nokia）和RIMM（黑莓手機(jī)生產(chǎn)商——譯注）的消沉，蘋(píng)果應(yīng)抓住這一機(jī)會(huì)滲透中端智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)（例如300至500美元價(jià)格區(qū)間），以顯著拓展整個(gè)潛在市場(chǎng)（total addressable market）以及市場(chǎng)份額。”

????在維特莫爾看來(lái)，如果解鎖版iPhone 4S定價(jià)在349美元左右，并配套預(yù)付費(fèi)語(yǔ)音套餐，那么它將“顯著提高（在潛在市場(chǎng)的）普及率”，這一市場(chǎng)目前已增長(zhǎng)到擁有15億潛在客戶(hù)，分布在98個(gè)國(guó)家，其中三分之二的人偏好預(yù)付費(fèi)套餐。

????在美國(guó)，大部分手機(jī)是由運(yùn)營(yíng)商補(bǔ)貼的，這些運(yùn)營(yíng)商通過(guò)與用戶(hù)簽約，從每月話(huà)費(fèi)中收回手機(jī)成本。不過(guò)如上面的圖表所示，世界上有很多地方，特別是在非洲、亞洲和拉丁美洲這些iPhone普及率不高的地方，用戶(hù)傾向于預(yù)先支付手機(jī)的全部成本。

????值得注意的是，分析人士呼吁蘋(píng)果發(fā)布成本較低的預(yù)付費(fèi)版iPhone已有一段時(shí)間，而且維特莫爾在發(fā)表其“iPhone雙款同步發(fā)行”理論時(shí)并未援引任何消息來(lái)源，也未聲稱(chēng)自己掌握了什么內(nèi)部情報(bào)。

????（然而，科技網(wǎng)站Loop的吉姆?達(dá)里姆普回憶稱(chēng)，今年早些時(shí)候，蘋(píng)果首席運(yùn)營(yíng)官蒂姆?庫(kù)克對(duì)研究機(jī)構(gòu)Bernstein的托尼?薩克納西透露，蘋(píng)果“知道在預(yù)付費(fèi)市場(chǎng)，價(jià)格是非常重要的因素”，雖然預(yù)付費(fèi)市場(chǎng)似乎不是蘋(píng)果的領(lǐng)域，但庫(kù)克表示該公司“不會(huì)放棄任何市場(chǎng)”。）

????摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的凱蒂?休伯蒂剛在臺(tái)灣參加完一周的會(huì)議，上周日，她在另一份報(bào)告中指出，

????如果休伯蒂所認(rèn)為的新款iPhone直到8月中下旬才投產(chǎn)，那么發(fā)布時(shí)間可能要拖到9月底。下圖是休伯蒂的iPhone銷(xiāo)量預(yù)測(cè)，她將200萬(wàn)部銷(xiāo)量從第三季度移至第四季度（分別是蘋(píng)果2011年第四財(cái)季和2012年第一財(cái)季）。她表示，如果新款iPhone能在9月初發(fā)布，她將把這200萬(wàn)部銷(xiāo)量移回來(lái)。

????For much of the spring, the reporters who cover Apple (AAPL) have been arguing among themselves about what to call the new iPhone they expect the company to introduce in September.

????Some call it the iPhone 5, to match the iOS 5 operating system Apple unveiled to developers three weeks ago.

????Some, anticipating that the new device will be a speeded-up iPhone 4 rather than a major re-design, have been calling it the iPhone 4S, echoing the nomenclature Apple used two years ago when it introduced the iPhone 3GS.

????In a note issued early Monday, Deutsche Bank's Chris Whitmore is telling clients to expect both -- an iPhone 5 and an iPhone 4S.

????"With Nokia and RIMM struggling," he writes, "the time is right for Apple to aggressively penetrate the mid range smart-phone market (i.e. $300-500 category) to dramatically expand its [total addressable market] and market share."

????As Whitmore sees it, an iPhone 4S that is unlocked, priced around $349, and comes with a pre-paid voice plan would "drive significantly greater penetration" into an addressable market that has grown to include 1.5 billion potential customers in 98 countries, two thirds of whom prefer pre-paid plans.

????In the U.S., most cellphones are subsidized by carriers with contracts that allow them to recoup the cost of the phone in monthly payments. But as the above chart shows, there are large swaths of the world -- especially in Africa, Asia and Latin America, where iPhone penetration is low -- where customers prefer to pay the full cost of the phone upfront.

????Note that analysts for some time have been calling for Apple to release a lower cost, pre-paid iPhone, and that Whitmore does not cite any sources or claim any inside knowledge for his two-iPhone theory.

????[The Loop's Jim Dalrymple, however, recalls that COO Tim Cook told Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi earlier this year that Apple "understood price is big factor in the prepaid market," and though the pre-paid market may seem out of Apple's realm, Cook said that the company was "not ceding any market."]

????In a separate note issued Sunday, Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty, back from a week of meetings in Taiwan, reports that she expects iPhone and iPad production to "begin ramping up aggressively" from August through the end of the year.

????If production for what Huberty sees as one new iPhone doesn't start until in mid to late August, the launch might not come until late September. In her unit sales spreadsheet, copied below, she's shifted 2 million iPhones from calendar Q3 to calendar Q4 (Apple's fiscal Q4 and Q1 2012). If the launch comes in early September, she says, she'll shift them back.