蘋果股價(jià)緣何“熱脹冷縮”
市場(chǎng)研究機(jī)構(gòu)Bullish Cross最新研究結(jié)果（圖片點(diǎn)擊可放大）
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????通常來說，歷史表現(xiàn)并不能保證未來的走勢(shì)。不過，通過近期的兩份報(bào)告，我們卻發(fā)現(xiàn)，蘋果公司（Apple）股價(jià)的走勢(shì)規(guī)律非常有趣。 ????兩周之前，在投資網(wǎng)站尋找阿爾法（Seeking Alpha）上，賈森?施瓦茲撰文闡述了蘋果公司股票的一個(gè)周循環(huán)規(guī)律，即每周一股票走低，而到周四則會(huì)上漲。他在報(bào)告中指出，在過去32周內(nèi)，蘋果公司的股價(jià)從周五到周一下跌的次數(shù)為16次，但從周一的低點(diǎn)到周四走高的次數(shù)為27次。施瓦茲經(jīng)營(yíng)著時(shí)事通訊《經(jīng)濟(jì)氣象站》（Economic Weather Station（30美元/月）），目前，他已經(jīng)開始投入自己的資金，把寶押在所謂的“周一至周四蘋果周期”上面。 ????與此同時(shí)，市場(chǎng)研究機(jī)構(gòu)Bullish Cross的分析師安迪?扎克發(fā)現(xiàn)了蘋果公司股票更深層次的走勢(shì)規(guī)律。近期，安迪?扎克的網(wǎng)站也開始收費(fèi)（40美元/月）。 ????過去8年中，從每年七月或八月（唯一的例外是2008年的金融危機(jī)）開始，蘋果公司的股票幾乎都會(huì)出現(xiàn)大幅回升，并一直持續(xù)到來年一月份或二月份。 ????而每次回升之后，股價(jià)會(huì)從一月份（6次）或二月份（2次）開始調(diào)整，八年來從無例外。每年春季末或夏季，蘋果公司股票的下跌幅度都在12%到43%之間。 ????支持這一走勢(shì)規(guī)律的理由非常充分。 ????通常情況下，公司在第一和第二季度（蘋果公司的第二和第三財(cái)季）的發(fā)展放緩。而在年中，形勢(shì)開始好轉(zhuǎn)，因?yàn)椋緯?huì)在六月份召開開發(fā)者大會(huì)，并在六七月份推出新款iPhone（今年除外）；九月，為了迎接假期銷售旺季，公司會(huì)推出一系列新產(chǎn)品。在過去三年中，有兩年冬季的低迷狀況尤為嚴(yán)重，主要原因是在一月份，公司宣布史蒂夫?喬布斯因病需要暫時(shí)離開工作崗位。 ????對(duì)于未來蘋果公司股票的走勢(shì)，扎克做出了一些預(yù)測(cè)。但他的報(bào)告中，大部分都是在回答投資者提出的問題。這些投資者認(rèn)為，蘋果公司的股票目前處于低點(diǎn)，將會(huì)出現(xiàn)反彈，因此買入了2012年1月的認(rèn)購(gòu)期權(quán)（其中包括11,000多份2012年1月19日到期的認(rèn)購(gòu)期權(quán)，執(zhí)行價(jià)為400美元。如果到期時(shí)蘋果的股價(jià)低于400美元，這些期權(quán)將變得毫無價(jià)值。） ????扎克警告投資者，盡管蘋果公司的股票按他的話說“非常便宜，并且增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭強(qiáng)勁”，但實(shí)際上，市場(chǎng)對(duì)“宏觀環(huán)境”的看法比公司的基本面更加重要。 ????關(guān)于這種看法涉及的因素——從歐洲的債務(wù)危機(jī)到美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)對(duì)于二次量化寬松政策（QE2）（該政策按計(jì)劃將在本周終止）的決定，扎克的結(jié)論是我見過的最有說服力的，所以絕對(duì)值得掏錢訂閱。 ????那么持有一月份400期權(quán)的投資者又該何去何從？ ????扎克寫道：“最可能出現(xiàn)的情況是，每股價(jià)格強(qiáng)勢(shì)突破400美元大關(guān)，最高可達(dá)到420美元，之后會(huì)在期權(quán)到期時(shí)，被調(diào)整到400美元，使400美元期權(quán)的持有者面臨滅頂之災(zāi)。如果發(fā)生這種情況，我絲毫不會(huì)感到吃驚。我們需要采取不同的策略，使投資者盡可能把前半年損失的價(jià)值收回。然后耐心等待行情好轉(zhuǎn)?！?/p> ????了解更多關(guān)于Bullish Cross公司的信息，請(qǐng)點(diǎn)擊此處。 |
????With the usual caveat that past performance is no guarantee of anything, two recent reports have uncovered interesting patterns in Apple's (AAPL) share price. ????Two weeks ago on Seeking Alpha, Jason Schwarz documented a weekly cycle of Monday lows and Thursday highs. Over the past 32 weeks, he reports, Apple's share price has fallen from Friday to Monday 16 times and climbed from Monday's low to a Thursday high 27 times. Schwarz, who runs a newsletter called the Economic Weather Station ($30/mos.), has started betting his own money on the Monday-Thursday Apple cycle. ????Meanwhile, Bullish Cross's Andy Zaky, who recently put his website behind a paywall ($40/mos.), has discovered an even deeper pattern. ????Nearly every year for the past eight (the exception being the collapse of 2008), there's been a major rally in Apple that starts in July or August and runs to January or February. ????Then, every year for the past eight, the run-up has been followed by a correction that begins in January (6 times) or February (2 times) and by late spring or summer has shaved between 12% and 43% off Apple's share price. ????There are good reasons for this pattern. ????The first and second quarters (Apple's second and third fiscal quarters) are traditionally slow ones for the company. The action tends to pick up mid-year with the developers conference in June, the release (except for this year) of a new iPhone in June-July, and the September introduction of a crop of new products in time for the big holiday selling season. Exacerbating the mid-winter doldrums in two of the past three years has been the announcement in January that Steve Jobs was taking a medical leave. ????Zaky makes some specific predictions about where he thinks Apple's share price is headed. But he spends much of his report trying to answer the questions he gets every day from investors who have bet that Apple's share price will go up from its current lows by buying January 2012 calls (including more than 11,000 January 400s that will expire worthless on January 19, 2012 if Apple is trading below $400). ????He warns that although Apple is, in his words, "dirt cheap and firing on all cylinders," the market's perception of what he calls the "macro environment" is actually more important than the company's fundamentals. ????His summary of the factors involved in that perception -- from the European debt crisis to what the Fed decides to do about QE2, which is scheduled to expire this week -- is a cogent as any I have read and well worth the price of admission. ????So what about all those investors holding January 400 calls? ????"The most likely scenario," he writes, "is a solid break above $400 to a high of $420 a share, then a manipulated pull-back to $400 at expiration to wipe out $400 call-holders. That scenario wouldn't surprise me at all. We'll get into the different strategies one can employ to maximize their chances of restoring significant lost value as a result of the first-half woes. Stay tuned for more." ????To find out more about Bullish Cross, click here. |
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