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專欄 - Geoff Colvin

緣木求魚:奧巴馬指望制造業(yè)推動就業(yè)

Geoff Colvin 2011年09月21日

杰奧夫·科爾文(Geoff Colvin)為《財(cái)富》雜志高級編輯、專欄作家。美國在管理與領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力、全球化、股東價(jià)值創(chuàng)造等方面最犀利也是最受尊重的評論員之一。擁有紐約大學(xué)斯特恩商學(xué)院MBA學(xué)位,哈佛大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)榮譽(yù)學(xué)位。
奧巴馬總統(tǒng)對如何解決就業(yè)危機(jī)有著非常明確的遠(yuǎn)景,但問題在于,他完全搞錯了方向。

????在通用電氣(GE)董事長兼首席執(zhí)行官杰夫?伊梅爾特的陪同下,美國總統(tǒng)奧巴馬6月11日視察通用電氣位于紐約洲斯克內(nèi)克塔迪(Schenectady)的一家工廠時(shí)正在參觀發(fā)動機(jī)。

????雖然民主黨和共和黨在很多事情上都意見相左,但有一件事情雙方的看法卻是一致的:即就業(yè)現(xiàn)在是美國的頭等大事。對于如何推動就業(yè)增長,美國總統(tǒng)奧巴馬及其共和黨對手紛紛出謀劃策,唯恐落在人后。經(jīng)過雙方激烈辯論一番之后,可能會出現(xiàn)一些不錯的方案。不過,現(xiàn)在能對就業(yè)問題采取實(shí)際行動的只有美國總統(tǒng)。但不幸的是,他有可能會選擇一個異想天開且注定會失敗的方案。

????奧巴馬總統(tǒng)眼中只有一種觀點(diǎn),即制造業(yè)崗位才是解決美國就業(yè)問題的關(guān)鍵??纯此畹靡獾木蜆I(yè)刺激舉措吧,也就是本月即將與他碰面的就業(yè)與競爭力委員會(Jobs and Competitiveness Council)。奧巴馬是在紐約州克內(nèi)克塔迪視察一個大型渦輪機(jī)工廠時(shí)宣布成立該委員會的,對于該工廠所創(chuàng)造的就業(yè)機(jī)會,當(dāng)時(shí)他贊許有加地說,“我希望像這樣的工廠能在美國遍地開花。”隨后在6月份,他與該委員會在北卡羅來納州德罕市的一家燈飾廠會面,并表示工人們“正在帶領(lǐng)美國制造業(yè)王者歸來。這才是我們贏得未來的基礎(chǔ)。” 奧巴馬在這些講話中,有17次提到建筑制造,僅有1次提到服務(wù),而且還是在“商品和服務(wù)”中一筆帶過。

????奧巴馬想講述這樣一個故事:過去十年美國制造業(yè)不幸衰落,但還是有機(jī)會重回昔日輝煌,并為廣大美國民眾帶來高薪工作。 他在紐約州斯克內(nèi)克塔迪郡談及上次經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張時(shí)說,“過去是因?yàn)槲覀冞^度使用信用卡消費(fèi),經(jīng)濟(jì)才會落到這步田地。全球各地都在向我們出售大量商品。我們必須逆轉(zhuǎn)這一局面。我們需要的是由我們發(fā)明的(技術(shù))和制造的(產(chǎn)品)所推動的經(jīng)濟(jì)”。

????這個故事暗示我們在商場購買中國商品是因?yàn)槊绹圃鞓I(yè)沒落了,但它顯然是占不住腳的。美國制造業(yè)在經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張時(shí)經(jīng)歷過飛速發(fā)展。“美國制造業(yè)”的價(jià)值每年都在增加。奧巴馬總統(tǒng)所面臨的重大、最核心的問題是,我們發(fā)展制造業(yè)所需的人數(shù)一年比一年少。

????這樣一個不爭的事實(shí),卻總是被奧巴馬總統(tǒng)忽略。在美國和每個市場經(jīng)濟(jì)國家,制造業(yè)優(yōu)勢在于能不斷利用更少的工人生產(chǎn)出更多的商品。這并非一個新出現(xiàn)的趨勢。二次世界大戰(zhàn)結(jié)束時(shí),美國制造業(yè)工人占工人總數(shù)的比例達(dá)到39%的峰值。此后該比例一直穩(wěn)步下滑,目前僅為9%。歷史數(shù)據(jù)顯示,美國制造業(yè)工人人數(shù)在1979年達(dá)到頂峰?,F(xiàn)在美國制造業(yè)工人有1,180萬,約為當(dāng)時(shí)峰值的一半,盡管美國現(xiàn)在比以前更強(qiáng)大更富有,制造的產(chǎn)品也更多。舉例來說,在1941年美國加入二戰(zhàn)之前,制造業(yè)工人人數(shù)就比現(xiàn)在要多。

????這些數(shù)據(jù)應(yīng)該都不足為奇,因?yàn)檫@樣的場景我們以前就見識過。19世紀(jì),美國農(nóng)民占總就業(yè)人數(shù)的比例遠(yuǎn)超過60%,此后該比例一路下滑,到今天已經(jīng)不足2%。在過去這一比例高達(dá)60%的時(shí)代,多數(shù)人最大的擔(dān)心是挨餓。而如今不到2%的農(nóng)民卻生產(chǎn)出這么多的糧食,生產(chǎn)率水平如此之高,以至于肥胖成了威脅美國人健康的頭號公敵。

????現(xiàn)在,只需更少的人手就能生產(chǎn)出更多、更好的東西,不論是玉米、汽車,還是其他實(shí)物產(chǎn)品。這是不可逆轉(zhuǎn)的趨勢。

????奧巴馬總統(tǒng)對制造業(yè)的癡迷已經(jīng)到了相當(dāng)嚴(yán)重的程度。剛當(dāng)上總統(tǒng)后不久,他在喬治城大學(xué)(Georgetown University)演講時(shí)就對學(xué)生說:“我希望能再次看到最優(yōu)秀、最聰明的美國人全身心地投入到制造業(yè)中去?!边@話沒錯,更智能、更精湛和更高科技的制造業(yè)對美國而言的確是好事情。但是,我們都明白一點(diǎn):制造業(yè)技術(shù)越先進(jìn),需要雇傭的勞動力就越少。在美國迫切需要更多工作機(jī)會的今天,想依靠制造業(yè)顯然不靠譜。奧巴馬總統(tǒng)即將與其就業(yè)與競爭力委員會碰面,他到時(shí)候會講些什么可得聽仔細(xì)了,因?yàn)槊绹木蜆I(yè)問題現(xiàn)在最不需要的就是異想天開的政策。

????Even Democrats and Republicans at each other's throats agree on one thing: Jobs are America's No. 1 issue. President Obama and his Republican challengers strive to outdo one another with ideas for job growth, and maybe some good will come of that debate. But right now the President is the only one in a position to take action on the problem. The bad news for the country is that he seems fixated on an approach that is delusional and doomed.

????President Obama is bedazzled by the idea of manufacturing jobs as the way forward. Just look at his most prominent jobs initiative, his Jobs and Competitiveness Council, which will meet with him at the White House this month. He announced the council's formation at a giant turbine factory in Schenectady, N.Y., praising the jobs it creates and saying, "I want plants like this all across America." He next met with the council in June at a lighting factory in Durham, N.C., telling the workers they're "leading the comeback of American manufacturing. This is where the future will be won." Total references to manufacturing and building things in those speeches: 17. Total references to services: one, and that was in the phrase "goods and services."

????The President is trying to create a narrative in which U.S. manufacturing fell into sad decline over the past decade but can be restored to its former glory and employ legions of Americans in high-paying jobs. "What was driving our economy was, we were spending a lot on credit cards," he said in Schenectady, talking about the previous economic expansion. "Folks were selling a lot to us from all over the world. We've got to reverse that. We want an economy that's fueled by what we invent and what we build."

????But that narrative, implying that U.S. manufacturing withered while we bought Chinese products at the mall, is simply wrong. American manufacturing boomed during the expansion. The value of "what we build" increased every year. The problem for the President -- and it's a giant, central problem for him -- is that we did it with fewer workers every year.

????This is the overwhelming reality that the President ignores. The great story of manufacturing in America and every place with a market economy is that we continually produce more stuff with fewer workers. The trend is not new. Manufacturing employees were 39% of total U.S. workers at the end of World War II, and that was the peak. The proportion has declined steadily ever since and is now 9%. Looking past percentages, the raw number of U.S. manufacturing workers topped out in 1979. Today it's 11.8 million, about half what it was then, though the country is far larger and richer and manufactures enormously more. For perspective, in 1941, before our entry into World War II, we had more manufacturing workers than we have today.

????None of this should be surprising, because we've seen this movie before. Well over 60% of U.S. jobs were in agriculture in the 19th century, and the proportion has been declining ever since. Today it's less than 2%. Back when it was 60%, hunger was a significant worry for much of the population. Today that tiny 2% of workers produce so much food so efficiently that obesity is our gravest national health problem.

????Fewer people relentlessly produce more and better stuff, whether it's corn, cars, or any other physical product. The trend isn't going to reverse.

????The President's obsession with manufacturing jobs goes deep. "I'd like to once again see our best and brightest commit themselves to making things," he told Georgetown University students soon after taking office. And that's fine. Smarter, more sophisticated, higher-technology manufacturing is good for America. But one thing we know for sure is that the more advanced that manufacturing becomes, the fewer people it employs. At a time when the country desperately needs more jobs, manufacturing is obviously not the place to look for them. As the President meets with his Jobs and Competitiveness Council, listen carefully to what he says. A delusional policy for America's No. 1 problem is the last thing we need.

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