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解讀銀湖投資:
阿里巴巴上市無期,收購(gòu)雅虎成算大增

Dan Primack 2011年09月26日

Dan Primack專注于報(bào)道交易和交易撮合者,從美國(guó)金融業(yè)到風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資業(yè)均有涉及。此前,Dan是湯森路透(Thomson Reuters)的自由編輯,推出了peHUB.com和peHUB Wire郵件服務(wù)。作為一名新聞工作者,Dan還曾在美國(guó)馬薩諸塞州羅克斯伯里經(jīng)營(yíng)一份社區(qū)報(bào)紙。目前他居住在波士頓附近。
銀湖投資阿里巴巴降低了后者整體上市的幾率,但加大了收購(gòu)雅虎的可能性。

????銀湖合伙基金(Silver Lake Partners)上周四宣布,將聯(lián)手俄羅斯投資機(jī)構(gòu)數(shù)碼天空科技(DST Capital)、云峰基金(Yunfeng Capital)和阿里巴巴(Alibaba)股東淡馬錫對(duì)中國(guó)電子商務(wù)巨頭阿里巴巴集團(tuán)(Alibaba Group)投資16億美元。這筆交易旨在向阿里巴巴員工提供流動(dòng)性,根據(jù)交易,阿里巴巴整個(gè)公司目前的估值約320億美元。

????更重要的是,銀湖投資阿里巴巴意味著該集團(tuán)整體上市可能是猴年馬月的事了。阿里巴巴董事長(zhǎng)馬云也參與了銀湖的這項(xiàng)交易。今年早些時(shí)候他曾表示,母公司可能會(huì)上市。不過銀湖投資阿里巴巴后,該集團(tuán)整體上市的動(dòng)力似乎不復(fù)存在了,因?yàn)榘⒗锇桶蛯で蠊_上市不是為了資金,而是為了股票的流動(dòng)性。毫無疑問,銀湖及其合伙投資人也會(huì)有需要流動(dòng)性的一天,但那可能是5到6年以后的事情了。真到了那個(gè)時(shí)候,他們也可以通過向第三方或阿里巴巴出售股份全身而退。

????此外,銀湖和DST公司對(duì)阿里巴巴進(jìn)行要約收購(gòu)后,將不會(huì)有任何表決權(quán),因?yàn)檫@不符合中國(guó)外資所有權(quán)管理的相關(guān)規(guī)定。

????硬幣的另一面則是雅虎(Yahoo),2005年它以10億美元收購(gòu)了阿里巴巴40%的股權(quán)。有報(bào)道稱,銀湖一直在考慮收購(gòu)雅虎,但如果雅虎持有的阿里巴巴股份不能同時(shí)出售(根據(jù)當(dāng)時(shí)簽訂的協(xié)議條款,阿里巴巴對(duì)雅虎持有的股份有優(yōu)先認(rèn)購(gòu)權(quán)),銀湖不可能籌得足夠的資金完成對(duì)雅虎的收購(gòu)。

????消息人士稱,上周的這筆交易已經(jīng)醞釀了好幾個(gè)月,絲毫未受到可能收購(gòu)雅虎一事的影響。該消息人士說,“游說投資人大手筆投資來推動(dòng)另一個(gè)八字還沒一撇的交易是不負(fù)責(zé)的,同時(shí)也違反了信托責(zé)任。”

????因此,銀湖的阿里巴巴項(xiàng)目時(shí)間表是根據(jù)預(yù)期內(nèi)部回報(bào)率確定的,而不是雅虎。但如果我們從另外一個(gè)角度來看:銀湖的雅虎項(xiàng)目組是否受到了阿里巴巴的影響?銀湖對(duì)阿里巴巴這筆投資早已知情,或許正因?yàn)槿绱怂麄儾艜?huì)比其它投資者更有信心找出方案,確保雅虎將出售手頭的阿里巴巴股權(quán)。收購(gòu)Skype是銀湖截至目前完成的最大一個(gè)項(xiàng)目,但Skype和雅虎顯然不是同一個(gè)重量級(jí)的,因此收購(gòu)雅虎之路依舊漫長(zhǎng),但現(xiàn)在的可能性相比以前卻提高了很多。

????Silver Lake Partners announced today that it is leading a $1.6 billion investment in Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group, alongside DST Capital, Yunfeng Capital and existing Alibaba shareholder Temasek. The deal is designed as a tender offer to provide liquidity for Alibaba employees, and values the company at approximately $32 billion.

????More importantly, it seems to signal that an Alibaba Group IPO is a long ways off. Chairman Jack Ma, who participated with the investor group, suggested earlier this year that an IPO for the unlisted parent company was possible. But this deal seems to have removed the impetus for such a transaction, since Alibaba would have accessed the public markets for liquidity rather than capital. Silver Lake and its investment partners will no doubt need liquidity of their own one day, but that could mean five or six years from now. And, even at that late date, their exit could come via a share sale, either to a third-party or to the company itself.

????Moreover, Silver Lake and DST will not have any voting rights at Alibaba following the tender, in order to comply with China's foreign ownership rules.

????The flip side of this coin is Yahoo (YHOO), which acquired a 40% stake in Alibaba in 2005 for just $1 billion. Silver Lake reportedly has been considering an acquisition offer for Yahoo, which would be financially impossible were Yahoo's Alibaba position not simultaneously divested (Alibaba has first dibs, per terms of the original agreement).

????Sources familiar with the situation say that today's deal has been in the works for months, and that it was not at all affected by the prospect of a Yahoo bid. "It would be irresponsible, and arguably a breach of fiduciary duty, to ask investors for hundreds of millions of dollars to help facilitate another deal that may or may not happen," one source said.

????So Silver Lake's Alibaba deal time was driven by prospective IRR, not Yahoo. But what if we look at it from the other direction: Is Silver Lake's Yahoo deal team affected by Alibaba? Silver Lake has known about the burgeoning Alibaba relationship for a while, which perhaps makes them more confident than are other suitors that they could work out a divestiture. The whole thing still remains a long-shot -- Silver Lake's largest-ever deal was Skype, which was tiny compared to Yahoo -- but perhaps a bit more possible today than it was yesterday…

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