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專欄 - 蘋(píng)果2_0

蘋(píng)果Siri有望催生會(huì)聽(tīng)話的電視遙控器

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2011年10月12日

蘋(píng)果(Apple)公司內(nèi)部流傳著一個(gè)老笑話,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現(xiàn)實(shí)扭曲力場(chǎng)”:你離他太近的話,就會(huì)相信他所說(shuō)的話。蘋(píng)果的數(shù)百萬(wàn)用戶中已經(jīng)有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,而很多蘋(píng)果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿。不過(guò),Elmer-DeWitt認(rèn)為,在報(bào)道蘋(píng)果公司時(shí)有點(diǎn)懷疑精神不是壞事。聽(tīng)他的應(yīng)該沒(méi)錯(cuò)。要知道,他自從1982年就開(kāi)始報(bào)道蘋(píng)果、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經(jīng)營(yíng)該公司。
有一位分析師也許已經(jīng)捕捉到了Siri語(yǔ)言界面最牛的應(yīng)用,那就是把它電視遙控器來(lái)用。

????圖片來(lái)源:蘋(píng)果公司、TV Guide。圖片由photoshop合成。

????Cross Research市場(chǎng)研究公司的分析師莎倫?克勞斯在上周五致客戶的一封信中先是哀悼了一下喬布斯,然后話鋒一轉(zhuǎn),開(kāi)始詳細(xì)評(píng)論蘋(píng)果(Apple)在喬布斯去世前一天發(fā)布的自然語(yǔ)言界面Siri。

????克勞斯關(guān)注的重點(diǎn)與蘋(píng)果高級(jí)副總裁斯科特?福斯特的產(chǎn)品演示和蘋(píng)果官方炫目的促銷視頻所體現(xiàn)的都不一樣,倒是很符合喬布斯生前最后的愛(ài)好:看電視。克勞斯寫(xiě)道:

????Siri技術(shù)可能催生出一個(gè)有趣的應(yīng)用,也就是Apple TV(既有可能在現(xiàn)有設(shè)備上實(shí)現(xiàn),也有可能是蘋(píng)果即將推出的自有品牌電視機(jī))。我們認(rèn)為這項(xiàng)應(yīng)用將解決電視行業(yè)在搖控技術(shù)上的難題。有了這個(gè)應(yīng)用,我們就相當(dāng)于有了一個(gè)智能的電視或設(shè)備,用戶可以對(duì)它發(fā)出指令:“我想看揚(yáng)基隊(duì)(Yankees)或紅襪隊(duì)(Red Sox)的比賽”,而電視會(huì)迅速做出應(yīng)答,無(wú)需用戶查看收視指南或使用遙控器便可切換頻道。用戶甚至還可以決定觀看高清還是標(biāo)清的節(jié)目,因?yàn)槿绻懈咔宓墓?jié)目可看,用戶也許想看高清版的。另外,用戶還可以在收看電視的同時(shí),命令設(shè)備把另外一部電視劇所有最新劇集全部錄下來(lái)。最后,由于電視是聯(lián)網(wǎng)的,因此一旦用戶的iPhone或者電腦收到了一條新消息,就會(huì)在電視上顯示出來(lái),用戶可以通過(guò)電視進(jìn)行回復(fù)。

????Siri的項(xiàng)目代號(hào)叫做CALO,意為“可學(xué)習(xí)和組織的認(rèn)知助手”,這是由美國(guó)國(guó)防部高級(jí)研究計(jì)劃署(DARPA)贊助的項(xiàng)目,由300名科研人員耗時(shí)五年推出。蘋(píng)果公司上周末發(fā)布Siri的時(shí)候,它的人工智能技術(shù)也許還不夠成熟,可能只能聽(tīng)懂用戶不到一半的問(wèn)話。但要聽(tīng)懂整天窩在沙發(fā)上看電視的宅男宅女們?cè)卩洁焓裁?,瀏覽《電視指南》(TV Guide)的數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù),對(duì)它來(lái)說(shuō)就不過(guò)是小菜一碟了??藙谒怪赋?,等到Siri全線安裝到蘋(píng)果的所有iOS產(chǎn)品線上——包括它現(xiàn)有和未來(lái)的電視設(shè)備上,到時(shí)人們可能就不會(huì)再需要遙控器了。

????不過(guò),電視只不過(guò)是Siri可能的用途之一。即便是在蘋(píng)果收購(gòu)Siri之前,它已經(jīng)能夠調(diào)用許多數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)的信息了,根據(jù)維基百科,Siri可以使用以下數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù):

????? 它可以在OpenTable、Gayot、CitySearch、BooRah、Yelp、Yahoo Local、ReserveTravel和Localeze等網(wǎng)站上搜索餐飲和商業(yè)的問(wèn)題及解答。

????? 在Eventful、StubHub和LiveKick等網(wǎng)站上搜索活動(dòng)和音樂(lè)會(huì)信息。

????? 在Movie Tickets、爛番茄網(wǎng)(Rotten Tomatoes)、《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》(New York Times)網(wǎng)站上搜索影訊和影評(píng)。

????? 在True Knowledge、Bing Answers和Wolfram Alpha網(wǎng)站上搜索事實(shí)問(wèn)題的答案。

????? 在必應(yīng)(Bing)和谷歌(Google)上進(jìn)行網(wǎng)頁(yè)搜索。

????克勞斯總結(jié)說(shuō):“我們相信,自然語(yǔ)音界面的運(yùn)用(而且可能它以后還可以識(shí)別不同人的聲音)有一天或許將改變我們與電子設(shè)備的互動(dòng)方式,并且為蘋(píng)果提供巨大的技術(shù)優(yōu)勢(shì)。理由很簡(jiǎn)單,因?yàn)槲覀儚膩?lái)沒(méi)有見(jiàn)過(guò)可以與這項(xiàng)技術(shù)媲美的人工智能或其它消費(fèi)系統(tǒng)。因此,我們認(rèn)為,蘋(píng)果的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手要想達(dá)到Siri的人工智能水平不僅難度大,而且耗時(shí)長(zhǎng)。微軟(Microsoft)目前似乎主要關(guān)注的是手勢(shì)操作技術(shù),谷歌似乎主要關(guān)注高級(jí)翻譯。而蘋(píng)果的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手們最有可能獲得的人工智能技術(shù)則是以IBM的Watson為代表的企業(yè)級(jí)應(yīng)用,因?yàn)閃atson也很可能向各種設(shè)備提供托管和本地實(shí)施服務(wù),這也正是蘋(píng)果為Siri選擇的道路?!?/p>

????譯者:樸成奎

????In a note to clients issued Friday, Cross Research's Shannon Cross pivots from the Steve Jobs eulogies to take a closer look at Siri, the natural language interface that Apple (AAPL) unveiled the day before he died.

????In particular, she singles out an application that wasn't in Scott Forstall's demos or Apple's slick promotional video, but which fits perfectly into Jobs' final hobby: television. She writes:

????One interesting application of the Siri technology would be with Apple TV (either the existing device or actual TV's that Apple may launch). We think this would solve the industry's difficulties with remote controls... We think it would be very compelling to own a TV or a device that could quickly answer the request, "I want to watch the Yankees/Red Sox game," by changing the TV channel without requiring the user to look at a guide or use a remote control, or even specifying HD or standard definition feeds, since you would want the HD channel if available. Or, you could instruct the device to record all new episodes of a show, without leaving the program you are currently watching. Finally, since you are online, a Siri enabled TV could answer whether your iPhone or computer has received a new message, and let you respond accordingly.

????The artificial intelligence in Siri -- the product of a five-year, 300-researcher DARPA project called CALO -- may not be mature enough to understand half of what users are going to ask of it when it gets released later this week (see Will the iPhone's Siri have its 'Egg freckles' moment?), but making sense of the commands grunted by couch potatoes and navigating TV Guide's database are almost certainly within its ken. And as Cross points out, when Siri is installed across all of Apple's iOS product line -- including its current and future TV devices -- the need for a physical TV remote might finally disappear.

????TV, however, is only one possible application for Siri, which tapped into a broad range of databases even before Apple acquired it, including, according to Wikipedia:

????? OpenTable, Gayot, CitySearch, BooRah, Yelp, Yahoo Local, ReserveTravel, Localeze for restaurant and business questions and actions;

????? Eventful, StubHub, and LiveKick for events and concert information;

????? MovieTickets, RottenTomatoes, New York Times for movie information and reviews;

????? True Knowledge, Bing Answers, and Wolfram Alpha for factual question answering;

????? Bing and Google for Web search.

????"We believe," Cross concludes, "the use of natural language and potentially the ability to distinguish between voices could one day change the way we interact with electronic devices and provide a substantial technology advantage to Apple. Quite simply, we have not seen a demonstration of comparable AI in any other consumer system. As a result, we think it will be difficult and time-consuming for Apple's competitors to match Siri's level of AI. Microsoft (MSFT) appears to be focusing on gestures (Kinect) while Google (GOOG) seems to have focused on advanced translation. Enterprise level applications, such as IBM's (IBM) Watson, would appear to be the obvious hope for licensing by Apple's competitors, as it would lend itself to the hybrid hosted and local implementation that Apple has chosen for Siri."

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