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專欄 - 蘋果2_0

蘋果營收低于預(yù)期,股票盤后交易受挫

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2011年10月19日

蘋果(Apple)公司內(nèi)部流傳著一個老笑話,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現(xiàn)實扭曲力場”:你離他太近的話,就會相信他所說的話。蘋果的數(shù)百萬用戶中已經(jīng)有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,而很多蘋果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿。不過,Elmer-DeWitt認為,在報道蘋果公司時有點懷疑精神不是壞事。聽他的應(yīng)該沒錯。要知道,他自從1982年就開始報道蘋果、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經(jīng)營該公司。
Mac電腦與iPad的銷量均創(chuàng)歷史記錄,但iPhone手機的銷量卻并不令人滿意。

????蘋果公司(Apple)周二公布的第四財季財報并未讓投資者滿意。雖然公司該季度的表現(xiàn)輕松超過營收目標,但卻遠未達到分析師和投資者的預(yù)期,導(dǎo)致公司股票在盤后交易出現(xiàn)下挫。

????在市場的期待中,蘋果公司股票當日收盤價上漲至422.24美元,創(chuàng)歷史記錄,但盤后交易中每股卻一度下跌超過28美元(6.7%)。

????尤其是iPhone手機的銷量遠低于預(yù)期。在與分析人士召開的電話會議中,蘋果公司首席執(zhí)行官蒂姆?庫克與首席財務(wù)官彼得?奧本海默將銷量下滑歸于兩個原因:1)零售合作伙伴在之前幾個季度建立的iPhone 4庫存出現(xiàn)不足;2)特別是在本財季后半段,關(guān)于新款iPhone手機的“謠言鋪天蓋地”,使市面上現(xiàn)有iPhone手機的銷售放緩。

????分析人士的預(yù)期與公司的表現(xiàn)為何會存在如此巨大的差距?咨詢公司Bullish Cross的安迪?扎克認為,原因是蘋果公司在6月份所在的第二財季的營收超出目標22%,遠遠超過15% -18%的平均水平。而本財季營收僅超出目標13%,這使得大部分分析師,尤其是看漲的獨立分析師們倍感失落。

????具體財報數(shù)據(jù)如下:

????銷售額:282.7億美元,同比上漲28%

????利潤:66.2億美元,上漲53.6%

????每股利潤:7.05美元,上漲34.2%

????iPhone銷量:1,707萬臺,上漲21%

????本財季下半部分,因消費者等待iPhone 4S手機,導(dǎo)致iPhone手機銷量下跌

????在亞太地區(qū),iPhone手機銷量翻了一番以上

????iPad銷量:1,112萬臺,上漲166%,創(chuàng)下最新季度記錄

????Mac:489萬臺,上漲26%,創(chuàng)下最新季度記錄

????在亞太地區(qū),Mac銷量上漲了61%

????iPod銷量:662萬臺,下降27%。其中iPod touch占銷量的1/2強

????零售:截至財季末,蘋果零售商店總計數(shù)量為365家

????每店營收:1,070萬美元,低于上一季度的1,180萬美元

????毛利潤率:40.3%

????現(xiàn)金與有價證券:816億美元

????現(xiàn)金增值:本財季54億美元

????營業(yè)收入目標:370億美元

????每股利潤目標:9.30美元

????毛利潤率目標:40%

????對于本季度的收入情況,公司首席執(zhí)行官蒂姆?庫克稱自己非?!凹印保紫\營官彼得?奧本海默也表示“非常高興”。公司該季度的表現(xiàn)創(chuàng)下9月份新高,但華爾街的投資者希望蘋果公司能夠創(chuàng)下前所未有的歷史記錄,很遺憾,蘋果并未達到這個預(yù)期。蘋果公司的表現(xiàn)一直都超出投資者的預(yù)期,因此此次“退步”確實極為罕見。

????點擊查看新聞稿。

????以下為財報電話會議的內(nèi)容摘要:

????關(guān)于讓筆者迷惑不已的iPhone手機庫存水平問題:庫克信心滿滿地稱,本季度iPhone手機銷量將創(chuàng)歷史新高。6月份那個季度,iPhone手機銷量下降的情況并沒有外界擔(dān)憂的那么嚴重,但本季度末,iPhone手機的銷售卻遭到重創(chuàng)。

????Apple (AAPL) reported disappointing results for its fourth fiscal quarter on Tuesday. Although it handily beat its guidance, it fell far short of the expectations of analysts and investors, who punished the stock in after-hours trading

????Apple shares, which had closed the day at a record $422.24 amid hopes for an upside surprise, fell at one point more than $28 (6.7%) in after-hours trading.

????iPhones, in particular, came in considerably lower than expected. In a conference call with analysts, CEO Tim Cook and CFO Peter Oppenheimer attributed this to two factors: 1) The draw down in their retail partners' iPhone 4 inventory that had been built-up in the previous quarters and 2) the effect of "pervasive rumors" of a new iPhone, particularly in the second half of the quarter, which slowed sales considerably.

????As for how the analysts' expectations could have been so ahead of the company's performance, Bullish Cross' Andy Zaky attributes it to the fact that Apple beat its guidance by 22% in the June quarter -- far more than the usual 15%-18% beat. This quarter, the company beat its guidance by only 13%, leaving most analysts -- and especially the more bullish independents -- out on a limb.

????The numbers:

????Sales: $28.27 billion, up 28% year over year

????Profits: $6.62 billion, up 53.6%

????EPS: $7.05, up 34.2%

????iPhone: 17.07 million units, up 21%.

????iPhone sales declined in 2nd part of quarter as customers anticipated the iPhone 4S

????iPhone sales more than doubled in Asia-Pacific

????iPad: 11.12 million units, up 166%, a new quarterly record

????Mac: 4.89 million units, up 26%, a new all-time quarterly record

????Mac sales up 61% in Asia-Pacific.

????iPod: 6.62 million units, down 27%. iPod touch more than 1/2 of sales

????Retail: Ended quarter with 365 Apple stores

????Revenue per store: $10.7 million per store, down from $11.8 million

????Gross margin: 40.3%

????Cash and marketable securities: $81.6 billion

????Cash generation: $5.4 billion in the quarter

????Revenue guidance: $37 billion

????EPS guidance: $9.30

????Gross margin guidance: 40%

????CEO Tim Cook pronounced himself "thrilled" and COO Peter Oppenheimer "extremely pleased," with revenue that was, after all, a record for September. But Wall Street had been looking for an all-time record, and that they did not get. It was a rare setback from a company that usually beats expectations.

????Press release here.

????Notes from earnings call below the fold.

????Talk about iPhone inventory levels that lost me. Cook confident he will set an all-time record iPhone sales this quarter. The decline in iPhone sales in the June quarter wasn't as bad as they feared, but hit hard at the end of the September quarter.

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