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專欄 - 蘋(píng)果2_0

蘋(píng)果營(yíng)收低于預(yù)期,股票盤(pán)后交易受挫

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2011年10月19日

蘋(píng)果(Apple)公司內(nèi)部流傳著一個(gè)老笑話,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現(xiàn)實(shí)扭曲力場(chǎng)”:你離他太近的話,就會(huì)相信他所說(shuō)的話。蘋(píng)果的數(shù)百萬(wàn)用戶中已經(jīng)有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,而很多蘋(píng)果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿。不過(guò),Elmer-DeWitt認(rèn)為,在報(bào)道蘋(píng)果公司時(shí)有點(diǎn)懷疑精神不是壞事。聽(tīng)他的應(yīng)該沒(méi)錯(cuò)。要知道,他自從1982年就開(kāi)始報(bào)道蘋(píng)果、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經(jīng)營(yíng)該公司。
Mac電腦與iPad的銷量均創(chuàng)歷史記錄,但iPhone手機(jī)的銷量卻并不令人滿意。

????關(guān)于毛利潤(rùn)率的問(wèn)題:組件價(jià)格與iPhone銷量保證了較高的毛利潤(rùn)率,但堅(jiān)挺的美元和產(chǎn)品降價(jià)卻拉低了毛利潤(rùn)率。

????關(guān)于中國(guó)市場(chǎng):庫(kù)克稱,“中國(guó)市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展令人驚奇?!?009年,大中華區(qū)在2009財(cái)年?duì)I收中所占的比例僅為2%,而本季度則達(dá)到16%,為公司貢獻(xiàn)了45億美元收入。這一地區(qū)中產(chǎn)階級(jí)崛起的速度令人乍舌,規(guī)模也在不斷擴(kuò)大,已經(jīng)成為蘋(píng)果公司的第二大市場(chǎng)。此外,庫(kù)克還強(qiáng)調(diào)了巴西市場(chǎng)(年銷量同比增長(zhǎng)達(dá)118%)。此外,俄羅斯和中東市場(chǎng)也很有前景?!爸袊?guó)市場(chǎng)的潛力不可限量?!?/p>

????關(guān)于供應(yīng)鏈:庫(kù)克稱,我們擁有一支卓越的團(tuán)隊(duì),創(chuàng)下了業(yè)內(nèi)最高的歷史記錄。“我們的方法是與盡量少的人進(jìn)行商業(yè)合作,這樣我們可以與合作伙伴建立深入密切的合作關(guān)系?!蔽覀兛梢垣@得更優(yōu)惠的價(jià)格和更高的服務(wù)質(zhì)量。

????關(guān)于平板電腦市場(chǎng):庫(kù)克重申,iPad和Mac的銷量在本季度均創(chuàng)下歷史記錄。目前,市場(chǎng)中涌現(xiàn)出多家競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手?!皯?yīng)該說(shuō),到目前為止,這些競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手都沒(méi)能對(duì)我們形成實(shí)際的威脅。”事實(shí)上,隨著新的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手出現(xiàn),蘋(píng)果公司的銷量反而出現(xiàn)了上漲?!拔覍?duì)我們的產(chǎn)品充滿信心?!?/p>

????關(guān)于本季度推遲引入新運(yùn)營(yíng)商的問(wèn)題:在iPhone 4S推出之后引入新運(yùn)營(yíng)商。此外還包括在假日季節(jié)之前引入新運(yùn)營(yíng)商。

????關(guān)于平板電腦市場(chǎng)規(guī)模:庫(kù)克稱,市場(chǎng)規(guī)模超出了我們的想象,銷售量累積已經(jīng)達(dá)4,000萬(wàn)臺(tái)。并且,庫(kù)克堅(jiān)信平板電腦市場(chǎng)的規(guī)模將超過(guò)個(gè)人電腦市場(chǎng)。使用平板電腦的用戶將大幅增加?!拔艺J(rèn)為,這個(gè)市場(chǎng)存在巨大的機(jī)遇?!?/p>

????關(guān)于iPhone手機(jī)的后續(xù)型號(hào):有多少款產(chǎn)品被推遲到下個(gè)季度發(fā)布?庫(kù)克稱,如果沒(méi)有關(guān)于新款iPhone的謠言,銷量能增加多少可想而知。iPhone 4S“已經(jīng)突破了預(yù)期”。第一個(gè)周末便售出了300萬(wàn)臺(tái)?!半y道大家只對(duì)這個(gè)問(wèn)題感興趣嗎?!?/p>

????下個(gè)季度iPad的銷售情況預(yù)測(cè):奧本海默預(yù)計(jì)下個(gè)季度,iPad與iPhone都將創(chuàng)歷史記錄。而對(duì)于Mac電腦的銷售情況,奧本海默保守預(yù)測(cè),將會(huì)超過(guò)其他競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手。

????問(wèn)題:Siri僅僅是一項(xiàng)新功能,還是與設(shè)備交互的革命性創(chuàng)新?庫(kù)克稱:“我們把Siri視為具有重大意義的創(chuàng)新。”雖然我并還不知道此項(xiàng)功能的實(shí)際應(yīng)用頻率有多大,但直覺(jué)告訴我,應(yīng)該小不了吧?

????關(guān)于泰國(guó)市場(chǎng):庫(kù)克非常關(guān)心泰國(guó)水災(zāi)造成的損失。目前多家工廠仍無(wú)法投入運(yùn)營(yíng)。損失最大的是Mac電腦。很大一部分電腦硬盤(pán)均在泰國(guó)生產(chǎn)。幾乎可以確定,不久全球?qū)?huì)面臨硬盤(pán)短缺問(wèn)題;不過(guò),在制定370億美元的營(yíng)收目標(biāo)時(shí),蘋(píng)果已經(jīng)將這一問(wèn)題考慮在內(nèi)。

????關(guān)于與安卓(Android)產(chǎn)品的專利訴訟:蘋(píng)果最終目的是什么?庫(kù)克稱:對(duì)于這個(gè)問(wèn)題,不想做過(guò)多評(píng)論?!暗締?wèn)題在于,我們花費(fèi)了大量的時(shí)間、財(cái)力和資源才獲得這些富有創(chuàng)意的專利,別人卻不勞而獲,我們對(duì)這一點(diǎn)非常不滿?!?/p>

????您希望得到什么樣的賠償?無(wú)可奉告。

????Question about gross margins. Component prices and iPhone sales keep the GM high, but the strength of the dollar and price cuts lower the GM.

????Question about China. "China progress has been amazing," says Cook. Greater China represented 2% of revenue in '09, 16% in this quarter. Accounted for $4.5 billion of revenue for the current quarter. Has never seen as many people rising into the middle class. Has quickly become the No. 2 country in terms of revenue for Apple. Also focused on Brazil (sales up 118% YoY). Russia and Middle East looking promising. "In China the sky's the limit."

????Question about supply chain. Cook: We have an outstanding team and a track record that is the best in the industry. "Out approach has always been to do business with as few people as we can so we can be very deep with them." We get great prices and quality.

????Question about the tablet market. Cook reiterates a record quarter for both iPad and Mac. Have seen several competitors come forward. "I think its reasonable to say that none of them have achieved any traction so far." In fact, Apple sales have gone up as new entries came in. "I feel extremely confident in our product pipeline."

????Question about deferring new carriers in Sept. quarter. Pushed new carriers off until after the launch of the iPhone 4S. With that behind them, now including new carriers in advance of the holiday season.

????Question about the size of the tablet market. Cook: Market even better than we thought. Sold 40 million in a cumulative basis. Still believes it will be larger than the PC market. There will be many many more people who can access it. "I think its a huge opportunity over time."

????Follow-up on the iPhone. How many units were pushed off into the next quarter? Cook: We can say how many we would have sold if there hadn't been rumors about the new iPhone. The iPhone 4S "is off the charts." 3 million sold in first weekend. "That's the mother of all uplifts (?)."

????How will the iPad sell in Dec. quarter? Oppenheimer: Expect new records for both iPad and iPhone in Dec. quarter. For Mac, only promised to outgrow the market.

????Question: Is Siri a feature or a new way to interact with devices? Cook: "We see this as a profound innovation." What percentage of use, I don't know, but gut feeling is that it is substantial?

????Question about Thailand: Cook's "heart goes out" to the losses from the monsoons. Several factories that are currently not operable. Our primary exposure is on the Mac. Significant portion of hard drives are made in Thailand. Virtually certain there will be a worldwide shortage of hard drives, but already factored into their $37 billion guidance number.

????Question about Android patent disputes. What's your ultimate objective? Cook: Doesn't want to comment. "But basically, we spend a lot of time and money and resources coming up with incredible innovations. We don't like it when someone else takes those."

????What kind of remedies are you seeking? That's what I don't want to comment on.

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