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專欄 - 蘋果2_0

蘋果營收低于預(yù)期,股票盤后交易受挫

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2011年10月19日

蘋果(Apple)公司內(nèi)部流傳著一個老笑話,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現(xiàn)實扭曲力場”:你離他太近的話,就會相信他所說的話。蘋果的數(shù)百萬用戶中已經(jīng)有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,而很多蘋果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿。不過,Elmer-DeWitt認為,在報道蘋果公司時有點懷疑精神不是壞事。聽他的應(yīng)該沒錯。要知道,他自從1982年就開始報道蘋果、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經(jīng)營該公司。
Mac電腦與iPad的銷量均創(chuàng)歷史記錄,但iPhone手機的銷量卻并不令人滿意。

????關(guān)于iPhone手機降價的問題:庫克稱,“我們之所以降低iPhone手機的價格,是因為我們希望更多的消費者能夠用上iPhone手機?!彼岬搅撕蟾顿M市場。同時表示,iPhone在預(yù)付費市場同樣占有優(yōu)勢。我們會雙管齊下。

????關(guān)于組件定價與一體成型外殼的后續(xù)問題:庫克稱,公司目前正在研究一體成型外殼項目,并且在目標中也有所反映。NAND閃存、動態(tài)隨機存儲器(DRAM)和LCD的定價都非常合理。從供應(yīng)商方面來看,目前市場利好。

????關(guān)于iPad的銷售與新市場:庫克稱,iPad在90個國家銷售。我們在全球擁有約40,000個銷售點。iPod的銷售點為50,000個,而iPhone則多達120,000個。盡管iPhone的銷售顯然在放緩,但iPad銷量卻增長迅速。本季度,iPad達到了供需平衡,并且一直持續(xù)到季度末。至于我剛剛提到過的其他國家,我們已經(jīng)展開行動。但有部分國家存在貿(mào)易保護主義,對未在該國生產(chǎn)的產(chǎn)品施加限制。在中國,從商店銷售到廣告宣傳,我們正竭盡全力推動業(yè)務(wù)發(fā)展。但我們不會一刀切,而是在其他國家我們可能不會這么盡全力。

????作為CEO,是否考慮過派發(fā)股息或回購股票?是否考慮過相殘效應(yīng)(cannibalization)?庫克:目前確實存在相殘效應(yīng)。有些人寧愿選擇iPad,而不是Mac。但與此相比,放棄Windows PC購買iPad的人更多。所以,我相信這樣的相殘效應(yīng)還會繼續(xù)存在。關(guān)于現(xiàn)金:我們不會因為手里有了現(xiàn)金就大手大腳。我們不會用這些現(xiàn)金做愚蠢的事情。我們收購了幾家公司,購買知識產(chǎn)權(quán),進行生產(chǎn)投資,建立商店。但我對現(xiàn)金并不迷信。長期來看,這是董事會的責(zé)任,我們會繼續(xù)討論如何妥善使用現(xiàn)金。奧本海默指出,大部分現(xiàn)金都來自海外市場。

????問題:回購股票是否意味著你們已經(jīng)無法通過創(chuàng)新來創(chuàng)造價值?庫克稱:我們有不可思議的產(chǎn)品線。它們都非常卓越?,F(xiàn)金始終是熱點問題——我們將堅持做對蘋果公司(而不是投資者)最有益的事情。

????庫克談多達15億的手持設(shè)備市場:我們對這個市場非常關(guān)注。

????關(guān)于“多余的一周”:這真的是線性安排嗎?第14周結(jié)束時恰逢新年,這對蘋果非常重要,但并非是最重要的時期。

????關(guān)于日本市場:與其他地區(qū)相比,收入與售出設(shè)備數(shù)量之間的差異在日本市場更大。去年,iPhone 4在日本上市后,這一差額大幅擴大。而另一方面,Mac產(chǎn)品在日本市場卻為公司帶來了較多的收入。

????關(guān)于iPad價格問題:庫克沒有正面回應(yīng),而是反復(fù)強調(diào),他認為平板電腦市場存在巨大的機遇,并稱蘋果正在準備推出不可思議的新產(chǎn)品(估計是iPad 3)。

????電話會議到此結(jié)束。網(wǎng)絡(luò)廣播回放可在兩周內(nèi)撥打電話888-203-1112收聽;確認代碼為:2922403。

????譯者:阿龍/汪皓

????Question about price reductions on iPhones. Cook: "We did it because we wanted to make the iPhone more accessible to a broader market." Mentions post-pay market. It also has advantages in the pre-pay markets. We did it for both markets.

????Follow up on component pricing and unibody casing. Cook: Currently investigating the casing issue, already priced into our guidance. NAND, DRAM and LCDs pricing looks very favorable. Generally a very positive market from supply point of view.

????Question about iPad distribution rollout and new markets. Cook: We are in 90 countries with iPad. We have about 40,000 points of sale around the world. 50,000 on iPod, 120,000 for iPhone. With the iPhone numbers, it's crystal clear there was a slowdown. That is not the case with iPad. Somewhere in the quarter we achieved a supply-demand balance with iPad and stayed there for the rest of the quarter. In terms of other countries, we have already started placing efforts in the countries I mentioned. There are some countries that have protectionist structures for products that aren't built at least in part there. In China we did everything we know how to do, from stores to advertising. We won't be doing all of that in the countries I named, but we'll do portions of it.

????Question about thoughts dividends or share buybacks, now that you are CEO? And what about PC cannibalization. Cook: I do believe we are seeing cannibalization. Some people are buying an iPad rather than a Mac. But more people are buying an iPad rather than an Windows PC. With cannibalization like this, I hope it continues. Regarding cash: Cash not burning a hole in our pocket. We're not the kind of people to do silly things with it. We've acquired several companies, bough intellectual property, invested in production, built out stores. But I'm not religious about cash. It's a topic for the board on an ongoing basis and we will continue to discuss it. Oppenhiemer points out that most of that cash is overseas.

????Question: Is buying back shares a philosophical white flag that you can't create value through innovation. Cook: We have a pipeline that is unbelievable. I view them to be totally distinct things. The cash is always a topic -- we will always do what is in Apple's (i.e. not investors) best interest.

????Cook talks about the size of the 1.5 billion handset market. We are very focused on that.

????Question about the extra week. Is it truly linear? 14th week ends New Years Day, a big day for Apple, but not the biggest.

????Question about Japan. Disparity between revenue vs. units larger than other regions. A huge bump last year from iPhone 4 launch in Japan, so a tough compare. On the other had gained a lot on the Mac side in Japan.

????Question about iPad in terms of price of the device. Cook ducks. Reiterates that he sees the tablet market as a huge opportunity and repeats claim that Apple has fantastic things in the pipeline (presumably the iPad 3).

????That's a wrap. A replay of the webcast will be available for two weeks at replay 888-203-1112; passcode 2922403.

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