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????周一，投資銀行Piper Jaffray的分析師吉恩?明斯特在致客戶的報告中引用了連夜出版的史蒂夫?喬布斯傳記，將其中據(jù)說是喬布斯原話，作為證明他論點的“又一個數(shù)據(jù)點”，事實上，從2009年以來他就對這個觀點深信不疑。 ????喬布斯曾向其授權(quán)傳記的作者沃爾特?伊薩克森稱：“我希望開發(fā)一款全功能電視，能和所有的設(shè)備以及iCloud無縫銜接……它擁有你所能想像得到的、最簡單的用戶界面。我終于把它搞定了?！?/p> ????明斯特稱，開發(fā)成熟的蘋果（Apple）電視（而非蘋果電視機頂盒）最大的難點在于如何將實時播放的電視節(jié)目與iCloud上的電視節(jié)目回放有機結(jié)合起來。明斯特指出，“也許這就是喬布斯認為自己終于攻克了的難關(guān)?！彼a充說，蘋果可以在電視中加入最新的Siri語音控制，“以增強電視的吸引力，將信息輸入化繁為簡，例如在電視上顯示節(jié)目名稱、演員表等操作，依靠語音指令能輕松搞定?！?/p> ????明斯特認為其它與蘋果電視有關(guān)的證據(jù)如下（我引用自明斯特本人） ????? 根據(jù)1月11日在亞洲的會議（不是和零部件供應(yīng)商），我們認為蘋果正在注資制造生產(chǎn)廠商，以確保其LCD顯示屏供應(yīng)，涉及從3.5寸的移動顯示屏到50寸的電視機顯示屏。 ????? 最近，在9月11日，我們與一位接近亞洲零部件供應(yīng)商的消息人士會面，他透露蘋果電視的原型機已在制造當中。 ????? 5月11日，美國專利商標局（the US Patent & Trademark Office）公布了蘋果與電視技術(shù)相關(guān)的專利。10月6日，蘋果申請了一項關(guān)于瀏覽和錄制電視節(jié)目的專利，專利中提到的大部分功能都與蘋果電視相關(guān)，但這些功能在當前的蘋果電視中還未出現(xiàn)。 ????? 1月11日，美國7,865,927專利公布：蘋果正在開發(fā)先進的電視播放菜單（見上圖）。在這些專利中，蘋果提到一種系統(tǒng)，可能“包括一部帶或不帶數(shù)字錄像機（或者個人錄像機）的機頂盒。在其余實現(xiàn)方式中，包括一臺帶內(nèi)置功能的顯示器（例如電視機）?！?/p> ????明斯特最后總結(jié)稱：“我們預(yù)計，2012年將會售出2.2億臺平板電視，其中4,800萬到1.06億臺將會是互聯(lián)網(wǎng)電視，而蘋果將有望售出140萬臺蘋果電視。我們預(yù)計在2012年，蘋果電視為蘋果帶來25億美元營收，約占公司營收的2%；到2013年，這一數(shù)字將上升到40億美元和3%，到2014年則是60億美元?！?/p> ????下表：明斯特的電視銷售表（銷售量和營收單位均是百萬）。 ????譯者：項航 |
????In a note to clients released Monday, Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster seizes on remarks attributed to Steve Jobs in the biography published overnight as "another data point" to support a thesis he's been championing since 2009. ????"I'd like to create an integrated television set," Jobs told Walter Isaacson, his authorized biographer. "It would be seamlessly synced with all of your devices and with iCloud... It will have the simplest user interface you could imagine. I finally cracked it." ????A significant hurdle to a full-fledged Apple (AAPL) television set (as opposed to the Apple TV set-top box), Munster writes, is combining live television with shows previously captured on iCloud. "Perhaps this code is precisely what Jobs believed he has 'cracked,'" Munter suggests, adding that Apple could use the new Siri voice activated system "to bolster its TV offering and simplify the chore of inputting information like show titles, or actor names, into a TV." ????Munster's other TV-related data points (I quote): ????? Based on Jan-11 meetings in Asia (not with component suppliers), we believe Apple is investing in manufacturing facilities and securing supply for LCD displays. These displays could range from 3.5" mobile displays to 50" television displays. ????? More recently, in Sept-11 we met with a contact close to an Asian component supplier who indicated that prototypes of an Apple television are in the works. ????? As recently as May-11 the US Patent & Trademark Office has published Apple patents relating to television-specific technology. In an Oct-06 patent application Apple filed for patents related to software for browsing and recording live television, features most closely related to, but not currently available in, the Apple TV. ????? More recently, in US patent 7,865,927 published in Jan-11, Apple explores advanced TV broadcast menus (see image). In these patents, Apple refers to a system that could "include a set-top box with or without a digital video recorder (DVR) (or, personal video recorder (PVR). In other example implementations, a display with built-in functionality (e.g, a television)." ????Bottom line, according to Munster: "We believe that of the estimated 220m flat panel TVs sold in 2012, 48% or 106m units will be internet-connected, of which Apple could sell 1.4m units. We believe an Apple Television could add $2.5b or 2% to revenue in CY12, $4.0b or 3% in CY13 and $6.0b in CY14." ????Below the fold: Munster's TV spreadsheet (units and revenue in millions). |
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