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????? 我們認為蘋果將利用龜山工廠生產(chǎn)其絕大部分iPad 3顯示屏。蘋果獲取屏幕的價格可能比業(yè)界預(yù)計的要低，因為蘋果的訂單數(shù)額巨大，所以它極有可能壓低市場價格。 ????? 我們認為龜山工廠還將為iPhone 5 LTE提供顯示屏。根據(jù)我們的研究，IGZO技術(shù)堪稱完美，其能耗與OLED技術(shù)基本相同，但成本更低而厚度也僅比OLED屏厚25%。（OLED——有機發(fā)光二極管） ????? 我們認為即使iPad 3發(fā)售，蘋果仍將繼續(xù)生產(chǎn)iPad 2并將售價下調(diào)100至200美元。 ????? 我們更進一步認為未來一兩年，蘋果和夏普將緊密合作開發(fā)適用于iPhone和iPad的OLED面板。這和大家此前認為在此期間三星鐵定將與蘋果就OLED進行合作的看法不大一樣。事情轉(zhuǎn)折點在于一項基于菊花字輪和噴墨打印機的新技術(shù)，能將OLED“打印”到薄膜，然后放置到玻璃上。OLED的產(chǎn)量因此將獲得極大提升，而且目前已有多項基于該技術(shù)的OLED商用制造試驗正在進行中。我們認為到2012年中期，夏普/蘋果將建立生產(chǎn)線進行試產(chǎn)，正式投產(chǎn)有望在2013年開始。 ????? 根據(jù)我們的研究，OLED技術(shù)最初只適用于小型和中型面板（例如iPad和iPhone）。適合iTV的面板可能要到2015年才出現(xiàn)。 ????米塞克報告中關(guān)于iTV的部分也被廣泛轉(zhuǎn)載，稱許多競爭對手“驚慌失措”地搜集iTV情報，以免再次被蘋果的突然襲擊打個“措手不及”。這種描述同樣也適用于米瑟克在其日本之旅中看到的其它所有情況。 ????注意：雖然米塞克將iPad 2012年第一季度的出貨量由1,700萬下調(diào)至1,400萬，但他仍然認為關(guān)于iPad市場疲軟的報道夸大其詞。他表示下調(diào)預(yù)期的原因僅僅在于 “歐洲經(jīng)濟整體疲軟以及缺乏運營商補貼。” ????譯者：項航 |
????? We believe that Apple may use this facility for the vast majority of the iPad 3 displays. The price at which Apple will be able to procure these panels will be lower than expected as the capital commitment by Apple likely necessitates below market pricing in our view. ????? For the iPhone 5 LTE we also believe this new facility will be used to supply displays. The IGZO technology is perfect in that it offers near-OLED power consumption while having a lower cost and thinness that is only 25% greater than OLED, based on our checks. [OLED = Organic light-emitting diode] ????? Even after the iPad 3 launch, we believe Apple will continue to produce the iPad 2 and will lower the price by $100 to $200. ????? Going forward we believe that Apple and Sharp will jointly develop OLED panels for use in iPhone and iPad within the next 1 to 2 years. This contrasts with conventional wisdom that states Samsung will have a lock on OLED for that timeframe. The equalizer is a new printing technology based on a combination of daisy wheel and inkjet technology that "prints" the OLED onto a film that is then deposited onto glass. The yield improvements have been enormous and have enabled some trial runs to produce commercial yields. We expect Sharp/Apple to have a line testing this by the middle of 2012 with 2013 output possible. ????? Based on our checks we believe OLED is only slated for small and mid-sized panels (i.e., iPad, iPhone). iTV is unlikely to receive OLED treatment until 2015. ????The other section of Misek's report that's getting widely quoted -- about competitors "scrambling" to figure out what an iTV might be so as not to get "caught flat-footed" by Apple once again -- could apply just as well to everything else Misek saw on his trip to Japan. ????Note: Misek also believes that reports of weakness in the iPad market have been overstated, and although he cut his Q1 2012 iPad shipment estimate from 17 million to 14 million, he said he was doing so "due to Europe macro issues and lack of carrier subsidization." |
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