華爾街還有春天嗎？
|
????2008年底時(shí)金融危機(jī)還看不到一絲希望，危機(jī)重重，沒人知道前方會(huì)不會(huì)有更大的災(zāi)難，但巴尼?弗蘭克卻保持著樂觀。他對(duì)一個(gè)消費(fèi)者游說(shuō)團(tuán)體說(shuō)：“我相信明年將是自大蕭條實(shí)施新政（New Deal）以來(lái)公共政策最好的一年。” ????這位美國(guó)眾議院金融服務(wù)委員會(huì)（House Financial Services Committee）主席素來(lái)持有大政府論調(diào)，他的這番樂觀的言論對(duì)華爾街來(lái)說(shuō)可不是什么好消息。 ????弗蘭克的預(yù)測(cè)只是在時(shí)間上出了錯(cuò)：堪稱大蕭條以來(lái)華爾街最全面的監(jiān)管法案——多德-弗蘭克法案直到2010年才實(shí)施。（隨著取得這樣重大的勝利，弗蘭克近日宣布明年將不尋求連任。）新法案事無(wú)巨細(xì)，堪比前75年針對(duì)金融服務(wù)業(yè)所有聯(lián)邦監(jiān)管條例的總和。 ????僅此一項(xiàng)法案已足以將金融業(yè)脫胎換骨，但禍不單行，華爾街同時(shí)還面臨著糟糕的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境：美國(guó)增長(zhǎng)緩慢，亞洲增速放緩，歐洲病入膏肓，我們都知道更大的危機(jī)可能正在再度逼近。 ????雙重重壓之下，華爾街已不再是三年前的華爾街。這些變化對(duì)于投資者來(lái)說(shuō)喜憂參半，甚至對(duì)客戶來(lái)說(shuō)也是如此，而他們?cè)緫?yīng)該是這樣大范圍監(jiān)管改革的受益者。雖然新法規(guī)還遠(yuǎn)未完備，華爾街已開始瘦身行動(dòng)，也不再那么冒進(jìn)。 ????除此之外，華爾街還遭到了人們的唾棄?！罢碱I(lǐng)華爾街”運(yùn)動(dòng)的參與者們可能已經(jīng)四下散去，但當(dāng)初促成這場(chǎng)示威運(yùn)動(dòng)的怒火并未消退。公關(guān)公司愛德曼（Edelman）最近編制的信任度調(diào)查報(bào)告（Trust Barometer）顯示，全球最不可信的產(chǎn)業(yè)是保險(xiǎn)、銀行和金融服務(wù)，這差不多就是在說(shuō)華爾街。 ????名譽(yù)掃地固然糟糕，但華爾街眼前面臨的更緊迫的問題卻是惡劣的商業(yè)環(huán)境。“華爾街大公司擴(kuò)張過(guò)度，它們涉足的部分地區(qū)正在走下坡路，”2007年曾預(yù)測(cè)次貸危機(jī)的分析師梅里迪斯?惠特尼稱。“過(guò)去一些年，華爾街有70-80%的收入來(lái)自美國(guó)和歐洲地區(qū)。如今這兩個(gè)大陸都處于持續(xù)數(shù)年的去杠桿化過(guò)程中。華爾街公司承受了極大的壓力?！?/p> ????目前超低的利率是另一個(gè)讓人頭痛的問題——這可能讓很多人感到意外。一些人認(rèn)為美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)（Fed）保持低利率是為了拯救銀行業(yè)，讓銀行獲取低成本資金。問題是銀行的貸款利率也處于歷史低點(diǎn)。存貸利差即銀行家所謂的凈息差，“在當(dāng)前環(huán)境下很難獲得，”一家國(guó)際性大銀行的前高管稱。這個(gè)問題很麻煩，因?yàn)椤八苯佑绊懙絻衾麧?rùn)?！焙芏嗳A爾街人士事實(shí)上更樂于看到長(zhǎng)期利率上升。 ????與此同時(shí)，監(jiān)管震蕩才剛剛開始。多德-弗蘭克法案要求起草數(shù)百條新條例，華盛頓還遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)跟不上進(jìn)度。一定程度上是因?yàn)槿A爾街正在大力游說(shuō)，試圖影響這些條例。估計(jì)要完成所有條例還得再花上2-5年。要搞明白為什么會(huì)花這么長(zhǎng)時(shí)間，以及為什么華爾街會(huì)這么緊張即將到來(lái)的監(jiān)管改革，不妨看看最受關(guān)注的新監(jiān)管規(guī)定，也就是歷史性的沃爾克法則（Volcker Rule）。 ????理論上，它可以用一句話概括，即銀行不能進(jìn)行自營(yíng)賬戶交易。但目前的草案厚達(dá)288頁(yè)，包括銀行和其他行業(yè)可能涉及的1,000多個(gè)問題。美國(guó)聯(lián)邦存款保險(xiǎn)公司（The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.）將在明年的某個(gè)時(shí)候宣布最終條例，隨后銀行和美國(guó)聯(lián)邦存款保險(xiǎn)公司才會(huì)開始討論這個(gè)條例究竟意味著什么。 |
????The brighter side of financial cataclysm wasn't easy to see in late 2008 -- the crisis was at its most acute, and no one knew if Armageddon lay ahead -- but Barney Frank was upbeat. He told a consumer lobbying group, "Next year will be, I believe, the best year for public policy since the New Deal." ????For anyone on Wall Street, that cheery forecast from the proudly big-government chairman of the House Financial Services Committee was not good news. ????Frank was wrong only on the timing: It took until 2010 to enact the Dodd-Frank law, the most sweeping regulation of Wall Street since the New Deal. (With his crowning achievement in place, Frank recently announced he won't seek reelection next year.) The new law is so vast that it nearly equals all federal regulation of financial services from the previous 75 years. ????That alone would have transformed the industry, but it's only part one of a double whammy. The other element is an awful economic environment -- slow growth in the U.S., slowing growth in Asia, and a European crisis so severe that, for all we know, Armageddon could be creeping up on us again. ????Combine those forces, and Wall Street is a deeply different place from what it was three years ago. The changes are a mixed bag for investors and even for customers, who were supposed to benefit from the massive regulatory overhaul. Though the new rules are far from complete, Wall Street is already becoming smaller and less adventurous. ????It's also despised. The Occupiers may have begun to disperse, but the fury that fueled them hasn't. The latest Trust Barometer compiled by Edelman, a communications firm, finds that the three least trusted industries in the world are insurance, banking, and financial services -- Wall Street. ????The industry's most immediate problem, worse even than its lousy reputation, is the terrible business climate. "The big firms are overextended, bloated in regions that are shrinking," says Meredith Whitney, the analyst who forecast the subprime disaster in 2007. "In past years, 70% to 80% of Wall Street revenue has come from the U.S. and Europe. Both continents are in the process of multiyear deleveraging. The firms have gale-force headwinds against them." ????Today's ultralow interest rates are another headache -- a fact that surprises many people. Some think the Fed is keeping rates low in order to rescue the banks by enabling them to obtain funds at low cost. Trouble is, the rates at which banks lend those funds are also hitting record lows. The spread between rates produces what bankers call net interest income, and "it's very hard to come by in this environment," says a former top bank executive. That's especially painful because "it goes straight to the bottom line." Many Wall Streeters would actually love to see long-term rates rise. ????Regulatory upheaval, meanwhile, is only getting started. Dodd-Frank requires hundreds of new rules to be written, and Washington is way behind schedule -- partly because Wall Street is lobbying aggressively to shape those rules. Expect another two to five years before they're finished. To see what's taking so long, and why Wall Street is nervous about what's coming, consider the new regulation with the highest profile of them all, the momentous Volcker Rule. ????In concept it can be stated in one short sentence: Banks can't trade for their own account. In practice, the current draft is 288 pages and includes over 1,000 questions to which banks and anyone else may respond. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. will announce a final rule sometime next year. Then the banks and the FDIC can start arguing over what it means. |
最新文章