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專欄 - 財(cái)富書簽

普通投資者如何打贏華爾街

Scott Cendrowski 2012年05月11日

《財(cái)富》書簽(Weekly Read)專欄專門刊載《財(cái)富》雜志(Fortune)編輯團(tuán)隊(duì)的書評(píng),解讀商界及其他領(lǐng)域的新書。我們每周都會(huì)選登一篇新的評(píng)論。
無論牛市還是熊市,普通投資者真的能旱澇保收嗎?聽聽史蒂芬?西爾斯在《不屈不撓的投資者》中給出的建議。

????假如你從未讀過投資類書籍。你既不遵從投資大師彼得?林奇的致勝華爾街建議,對(duì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)上的各色快速致富計(jì)劃敬而遠(yuǎn)之,也把三姑六婆勸你讀讀理財(cái)專家蘇茜?歐曼的建議拋在一邊,你也最后,從來沒看過近些年出版的、形形色色的危機(jī)投資書籍。

????既然這些年來都沒看過,那么為什么今天要買一本有關(guān)投資的書呢?首先,股市可以把巨額財(cái)富化為烏有。然后,當(dāng)很多人(包括你在內(nèi))離場觀望后,股市又出現(xiàn)了大漲。但同時(shí)也有麻煩。無論是401(k)養(yǎng)老金計(jì)劃還是個(gè)人退休賬戶(IRA),如今大多數(shù)美國人都需要通過某種方式自行管理退休資產(chǎn)。你自己可能也早就已經(jīng)承認(rèn)了:是時(shí)候提高投資技巧了。

????史蒂芬?西爾斯的《不屈不撓的投資者》(The Indomitable Investor)可以祝你一臂之力。身為《巴倫周刊》(Barron's)編輯的西爾斯在書中努力闡明投資者應(yīng)如何避開華爾街?jǐn)?shù)不勝數(shù)的陷阱,無論牛市還是熊市,都能賺到錢。開篇,西爾斯就揭示了一個(gè)驚人的事實(shí),如果投資者能明白這個(gè)道理,就會(huì)比現(xiàn)在富有10倍?!霸愀獾耐顿Y者考慮怎么賺錢,”西爾斯寫道?!俺錾耐顿Y者考慮怎么不虧錢?!?/p>

????想一想現(xiàn)實(shí)生活中的案例。沃倫?巴菲特這位過去100年最成功的投資者不是靠每天在奧馬哈坐在彭博(Bloomberg)終端前執(zhí)行交易而致富。他成為世界上最富有的人是通過購買低價(jià)股票,如果形勢變糟,他也有回旋余地。在市場慘淡的年月里,巴菲特也沒有落敗,他的財(cái)富年復(fù)一年地呈現(xiàn)復(fù)合增長。巴菲特常常調(diào)侃復(fù)合增長的重要性。他的第一投資準(zhǔn)則是什么?不要虧錢。第二準(zhǔn)則呢?別忘了第一條。

????不幸的是,西爾斯浪費(fèi)了這個(gè)漂亮的開場白。繼第一章后,《不屈不撓的投資者》給出的建議開始自相矛盾,甚至可疑,包括強(qiáng)調(diào)了一些普通投資者本應(yīng)避免的典型華爾街理念。他提供的建議來自貝爾斯登(Bear Stearns)前董事長艾斯?格林伯格,后者一貫堅(jiān)持賣出虧損股——沒有任何借口。

???? 普通投資者應(yīng)該總是清倉下跌股嗎?當(dāng)然不是。好公司的股票在長期上漲過程中也會(huì)因?yàn)楦鞣N各樣的原因下跌。另外,普通投資者也無力承擔(dān)像華爾街交易員那樣不斷換股的交易成本。

????Let's say you've never read a book on investing. You avoided Peter Lynch's advice on how to get one up on Wall Street, dodged all the Internet get-rich-quick schemes, brushed off your in-laws' efforts to get you to read Suze Orman, and finally steered clear of the various "crisis investing" titles that have appeared in the past few years.

????If you've held off all these years, why buy an investing book today? For starters, stock markets obliterated billions of dollars of your money. Then they skyrocketed while many people -- probably including you -- sat on the sidelines. But there's also the inconvenient fact that most Americans are now on the hook for managing their own retirement assets in some form or another -- either in a 401(k) or IRA. You may have even already admitted it to yourself: It's time for you become a better investor.

????Steven Sears' The Indomitable Investor offers an enticing premise. The author, a Barron's editor, promises to explain how investors can avoid Wall Street's countless pitfalls and build wealth in good times and bad. Sears begins with an awesome truth that would make every investor 10 times richer if they only knew it. "Bad investors think of ways to make money," Sears writes. "Good investors think of ways to not lose money."

????Think of it in practice. Warren Buffett, the most successful investor of the last 100 years, didn't get rich executing trades each day from behind a Bloomberg terminal in Omaha. Instead, he became one of the world's richest men by buying low-priced stocks that gave him a margin of error if things went wrong. Buffett didn't blow up during disappointing years, either, which means his wealth compounded year after year after year. Buffett often jokes about the importance of compounding. His first rule of investing? Don't lose money. The second rule? Don't forget rule No. 1.

????Unfortunately, Sears squanders this brilliant starting point. After the first chapter, The Indomitable Investor grows a tangle of conflicting advice and dubious tips that emphasize typical Wall Street ideas for stock trading, which are exactly what civilian investors should avoid. He offers advice from former Bear Stearns Chairman Ace Greenberg, who always sells losing stocks -- no excuses.

????Should you always get rid of fallen stocks? Of course not. Stocks of good companies dip for all sorts of reasons on their way to long-term gains. Plus, Main Street investors can't afford the trading costs of churning through stocks like Wall Street traders.?

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