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專欄 - 財(cái)富書簽

普通投資者如何打贏華爾街

Scott Cendrowski 2012年05月11日

《財(cái)富》書簽(Weekly Read)專欄專門刊載《財(cái)富》雜志(Fortune)編輯團(tuán)隊(duì)的書評(píng),解讀商界及其他領(lǐng)域的新書。我們每周都會(huì)選登一篇新的評(píng)論。
無論牛市還是熊市,普通投資者真的能旱澇保收嗎?聽聽史蒂芬?西爾斯在《不屈不撓的投資者》中給出的建議。

????以上這些就是該書給出的全部投資訣竅。另外,有一本書融合了本書的大部分智慧,但獲得的媒體關(guān)注遠(yuǎn)少于《不屈不撓的投資者》,這本書就是丹尼爾?派瑞斯的《策略派息投資者》(The Strategic Dividend Investor)。這本書是寫給買入-持有的投資者,前言第一句就是“如果你喜歡交易股票,請(qǐng)不要再往下讀了”,聽起來多么悅耳啊。派瑞斯信奉一個(gè)容易理解的派息理論——持股就該獲得現(xiàn)金(派息)——宣揚(yáng)耐心、低成本和強(qiáng)勁的長期回報(bào)。如果你打算只讀一本有關(guān)投資的書,試試這一本。

????與派瑞斯相比,西爾斯似乎總是有些短視。他說,對(duì)于股市投資而言,時(shí)機(jī)就是一切,他說的沒錯(cuò)。永遠(yuǎn)都不應(yīng)該不顧估值就買入股票——還記得2000年嗎?但為了解決這個(gè)問題,他給出的方法有些難以執(zhí)行——甚至可能還是危險(xiǎn):像高盛(Goldman Sachs)那樣玩市場(chǎng)周期。按照這一策略,在經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張期,看好像能源和材料等周期類股票;在經(jīng)濟(jì)收縮期,退回醫(yī)療保健、公用事業(yè)等防御性股票。

????如果你認(rèn)為,你可以比華爾街更好地確定市場(chǎng)周期的時(shí)間,嗯……如果是這樣,或許你可以開始考慮在華爾街找份工作了。頗能說明問題的是,高盛提供這類研究,幫助人們踏準(zhǔn)市場(chǎng)周期,畢竟高盛經(jīng)營著一個(gè)非常成功的經(jīng)紀(jì)業(yè)務(wù)出售股票。

????如果希望成為一名更出色的投資者,效仿華爾街人士的可能性不大。應(yīng)該從簡單的開始——挑選低成本基金,當(dāng)席勒的長期市盈率曲線低位時(shí)買進(jìn)股票,不要投資太多個(gè)股。最后,請(qǐng)記住巴菲特常說的一句話:成功投資很簡單,但做起來卻并不容易。以此為主題著書立說或許也同樣如此。

????譯者:早稻米

????That's about all the investing secrets there are. One book that incorporates most of this wisdom but has so far received little press is Daniel Peris' The Strategic Dividend Investor. Written for the lay investor, the preface begins, "If you like to trade stocks, read no further." (This should be music to your ears.) Peris espouses an easy-to-understand dividend philosophy -- he demands to be paid cash to hold onto stocks -- that preaches patience, low costs, and strong long-term returns. If you're only going to read one book about investing, try this one.

????Compared to Peris, Sears often seems myopic. He says timing is everything in stocks, and he's right. (You should never buy stocks regardless of valuations -- remember 2000?) But Sears prescribes a difficult-to-follow -- and potentially dangerous -- method to deal with that truth: a Goldman Sachs-endorsed approach to play market cycles. The strategy favors cyclical stocks like energy and materials when the economy is growing and retreats to defensive sectors like healthcare and utilities when the economy is shrinking.

????If you think you can time market cycles better than Wall Street, well ... maybe you should get a job on Wall Street. It's telling that Goldman Sachs (GS) provides the research that supports these prescriptions, given that Goldman runs a very successful brokerage business selling stocks.

????If you want to become a better investor, you can't possibly try to play the same game as Wall Street. Start with the easy stuff -- picking low-cost funds, buying stocks when Shiller's long-term P/E line is low, not betting on too many individual stocks. And remember what Buffett often says: Successful investing is simple, but not easy to do. The same might be said for writing a book on the topic.

????Our Weekly Read column features Fortune staffers' and contributors' takes on recently published books about the business world and beyond. We've invited the entire Fortune family -- from our writers and editors to our photo editors and designers -- to weigh in on books of their choosing based on their individual tastes or curiosities.

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