華爾街分析師熱議蘋(píng)果2012全球開(kāi)發(fā)者大會(huì)
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????摩根?史丹利（Morgan Stanley）凱迪?休伯特：目前，蘋(píng)果公司擁有4億個(gè)關(guān)聯(lián)信用卡的應(yīng)用商店（App Store）賬戶(hù)，年比增長(zhǎng)了78%。蘋(píng)果的應(yīng)用商店是如今互聯(lián)網(wǎng)上賬戶(hù)最多的商店，我們認(rèn)為，這是一項(xiàng)被低估的資產(chǎn)。相比較而言，截止2012年第一財(cái)季，亞馬遜（Amazon）僅有1.73億個(gè)賬戶(hù)。提高對(duì)中國(guó)市場(chǎng)的重視是保證蘋(píng)果公司長(zhǎng)期發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵。目前，我們推斷，通過(guò)擴(kuò)大iPhone手機(jī)在中國(guó)市場(chǎng)的銷(xiāo)售，2013財(cái)年，中國(guó)將為蘋(píng)果公司貢獻(xiàn)33%的增量收入。蘋(píng)果公司宣布，將整合百度（Baidu）、新浪（Sina）、優(yōu)酷（Youku）和土豆（Tudou），改進(jìn)中文輸入，推出新中文字典，新增八種字體，并在Siri中加入普通話和粵語(yǔ)，這些都表明，蘋(píng)果在巨大的、持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)的中國(guó)市場(chǎng)加大了投資。 ????德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）克里斯?懷特摩爾：此次全球開(kāi)發(fā)者大會(huì)上公布了許多經(jīng)過(guò)增強(qiáng)的功能，但沒(méi)有太大的驚喜?！按髸?huì)主旨內(nèi)容和大家的期待是一致的，我們的模式也沒(méi)有發(fā)生改變。我們預(yù)計(jì)，軟件/Siri功能的增強(qiáng)以及新硬件的推出將為iOS平臺(tái)吸引更多用戶(hù)和開(kāi)發(fā)者——加強(qiáng)蘋(píng)果公司在手機(jī)操作系統(tǒng)中的領(lǐng)先地位（3.65億iOS安裝基數(shù)），并進(jìn)一步推動(dòng)蘋(píng)果操作系統(tǒng)的跨平臺(tái)衍生。蘋(píng)果公司似乎正在通過(guò)其跨平臺(tái)應(yīng)用（游戲中心）、iCloud（合同、文件分享等）和消息功能（iOS6將手機(jī)號(hào)碼與蘋(píng)果賬號(hào)綁定，用戶(hù)可以在Mac、iPad和iPhone上發(fā)送/接收信息），推動(dòng)其手機(jī)操作系統(tǒng)和電腦操作系統(tǒng)的整合。這種跨平臺(tái)整合將提高iOS（iPhone、iPad和Apple TV）和Mac平臺(tái)的用戶(hù)黏著度，并使整個(gè)蘋(píng)果生態(tài)系統(tǒng)更具吸引力，聚集更多應(yīng)用開(kāi)發(fā)者和用戶(hù)。” ????杰富瑞投行（Jefferies & Co.）分析師皮特?米塞克：硬件與軟件升級(jí)；亮點(diǎn)頗多。“我們認(rèn)為，蒂姆?庫(kù)克有一支強(qiáng)大的團(tuán)隊(duì)作為后盾，他們?nèi)〉昧顺錾某删?。我們認(rèn)為，大會(huì)公布的新產(chǎn)品和升級(jí)將使開(kāi)發(fā)者和消費(fèi)者激動(dòng)不已……我們認(rèn)為，蘋(píng)果電視信息太多，不適合在本次大會(huì)公布。目前我們得到的消息是，蘋(píng)果將在3至6個(gè)月內(nèi)舉行專(zhuān)場(chǎng)發(fā)布會(huì)推出蘋(píng)果電視。我們認(rèn)為，蘋(píng)果電視的發(fā)布時(shí)間將會(huì)在2012年下半年?！?/p> ????巴克萊銀行（Barclay）本?雷特茲：今年開(kāi)發(fā)者大會(huì)的焦點(diǎn)是軟件，硬件的發(fā)布并未達(dá)到預(yù)期?！拔覀冋J(rèn)為，許多軟件創(chuàng)新遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超出預(yù)期，但蘋(píng)果竟然沒(méi)有介紹公司為蘋(píng)果電視編寫(xiě)應(yīng)用的能力，這讓人有些吃驚。雖然會(huì)上公布的硬件給人留下了深刻印象，但卻并未發(fā)布更實(shí)惠、性?xún)r(jià)比更高的教育專(zhuān)用MacBook Air。此外，大會(huì)也沒(méi)有發(fā)布新型iMac，而且采用視網(wǎng)膜屏的也僅有新Macbook Pro。因此，投資者可能對(duì)蘋(píng)果有更高的期望。不過(guò)，我們還是很期待今年九月初，下一代iPhone和其他關(guān)鍵硬件產(chǎn)品發(fā)布的另一場(chǎng)盛會(huì)。” ????全球證券研究公司（Global Equities）特里普?喬杜里：產(chǎn)品升級(jí)還算不錯(cuò)，但沒(méi)有太大突破?！皩?duì)Facebook和推特（Twitter）的整合沒(méi)有什么意義。沒(méi)有史蒂夫?喬布斯，蘋(píng)果就只能提供這些嗎？？” ????譯者：劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓 |
????Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty: Apple now has 400M App Store accounts with credit cards, which is up 78% Y/Y. This is the store with the most accounts on the Internet today and it is an underappreciated asset in our view. For comparison, Amazon had 173M+ accounts as of C1Q12.... A focus on China is key to long-term growth. We currently model China contributing 33% of incremental revenue in CY13 driven by expanded distribution of the iPhone. Apple announced new integration with Baidu, Sina, Youku and Tudou as well as improved Chinese text input, a new dictionary, eight new fonts, and both Mandarin and Cantonese language integration with Siri, which all reflect the significant investments Apple is making to target this large and growing market. ????Deutsche Bank's Chris Whitmore: Many enhancements but no big surprises at WWDC."The announcements were in-line with expectation and our model is unchanged. We expect the software / Siri enhancements and new hardware to attract users and developers to the iOS platform- extending AAPL's lead in mobile OS (365M iOS install base) while driving greater cross-platform fertilization... It appears Apple is driving increased convergence between its mobile and computing OS's through cross-platform applications (Game Center), iCloud (contacts, document, etc sharing) and messaging (iOS6 unifies phone number & Apple ID so users can send/receive messages across their Macs, iPad and iPhones). This cross platform convergence should increase the stickiness of the iOS (iPhone, iPad and Apple TV) and Mac platforms while making the entire Apple ecosystem increasingly attractive to App developers and users alike." ????Jefferies Peter Misek: Hardware and Software Refresh; Lots to Get Excited About. "Tim Cook delivered a solid performance aided by a strong cast, in our view. We believe there are plenty of new products and updates for both developers and consumers to get excited about... We believe there was too much content for a TV to be announced. We now see a TV being unveiled at its own event likely within the next 3 to 6 months. We believe the launch of the device is still a 2H 2012 event." ????Barclay's Ben Reitzes: Software the Focus of WWDC, Hardware Launches not quite as Broad as Expected. "We believe many of the software innovations were ahead of expectations, but we were surprised not to see Apple introduce the ability to write apps for Apple TV. The hardware announcements were impressive but excluded a lower priced MacBook Air Price Performance for education. Also, no new iMacs were released and only the new Macbook Pro received a retina display. As a result, investors likely expected more. Nevertheless, we expect another major event in early September to release the next iPhone and several other key hardware products." ????Global Equities' Trip Chowdhry: Nice refresh, but no breakthroughs. "Common sensical integration of Facebook and Twitter. Is this the best we can get from Apple, post Steve Jobs??" |
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