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????你聽說(shuō)團(tuán)購(gòu)網(wǎng)站Groupon的早期投資者正在對(duì)這家公司喪失信心的事了嗎？沒(méi)錯(cuò)，的確有一些?？赡懿坏揭话?。但其中有個(gè)人名頭很大，因此它一定意味著整個(gè)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)行業(yè)都完了。 ????這種說(shuō)法聽起來(lái)是不是有點(diǎn)莫名其妙？如果是，看來(lái)你還當(dāng)不了《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》（The Wall Street Journal）的編輯。周一這家報(bào)紙?jiān)陬^版刊登了下面這篇邏輯混亂的文章。 |
????Have you heard that early Groupon (GRPN) investors are bailing on the company? Well, some of them. Maybe less than half. But one of them is a big name, so it must mean the entire Internet sector is screwed. ????Does this strike you as a bit confusing? Well then, it seems you aren't an editor at The Wall Street Journal, which put this muddle above today's page one fold: |
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????如果有人想寫篇文章談?wù)凣roupon如何辜負(fù)了外界的期望，我絕不反對(duì)。但這篇報(bào)道具有誤導(dǎo)性，刊登在頭版這樣的位置更是放大了這種效應(yīng)。 ????這篇文章主要談到了一些早期投資者正在賣出Groupon股票，這肯定說(shuō)明他們“對(duì)原本有望推動(dòng)新一輪互聯(lián)網(wǎng)繁榮的公司喪失了信心”。其中一位投資者就是馬克?安德森，他的公司安德森-霍羅維茨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資公司（Andreessen Horowitz）已將2011年1月在Groupon 首次公開募股前的一輪融資中獲得的股份悉數(shù)賣出。 ????我不是很肯定為什么安德森-霍羅維茨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資公司賣出Groupon股票一定是個(gè)負(fù)面信號(hào)，要知道該公司從這筆4,000萬(wàn)美元的投資中獲得了1,400萬(wàn)美元的利潤(rùn)。這或許算不上風(fēng)投行業(yè)的本壘打，但對(duì)于18-20個(gè)月的持有期，這樣的投資回報(bào)并不賴。而且，我相信創(chuàng)造積極的投資回報(bào)是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資人最主要的責(zé)任（而不是科技公司拉拉隊(duì)，雖然這類錯(cuò)誤很容易得到諒解）。 ????但更大的問(wèn)題是，《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》由此推而廣之，斷言“（投資者）對(duì)一批新的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司都喪失了信心”。這是一個(gè)跨度很大的跳躍，要知道安德森-霍羅維茨和其他Facebook的早期投資者上周在Facebook鎖定期結(jié)束后并沒(méi)有賣出Facebook。Facebook不是“原本有望推動(dòng)新一輪互聯(lián)網(wǎng)繁榮的公司之一嗎”？或者說(shuō)，賣出Groupon股票比持有Facebook股票更能說(shuō)明問(wèn)題？又或者說(shuō)，《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》根本就沒(méi)花時(shí)間去查一查？ ????另外，文章沒(méi)有提到的是，Groupon最早和最大的外部投資者恩頤投資（New Enterprise Associates）在該公司上市以來(lái)一直持有其所有股票。這應(yīng)該是一篇標(biāo)題為《投資者放棄Groupon》的文章中非常重要的平衡信息。特別是鑒于文章稱，安德森-霍羅維茨是“幫助推動(dòng)Groupon迅速崛起的投資者之一”，而事實(shí)上安德森-霍羅維茨對(duì)Groupon的投資比恩頤首筆投資晚了整整三年。 ????《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》的確提到下面這些信息：包括T. Rowe Price和摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）在內(nèi)的一些IPO前投資者不僅沒(méi)有拋售Groupon股票，反而增加了持股。擬標(biāo)題的人是不是沒(méi)有讀到這么后面？ ????最后，文章還披露，Groupon上市時(shí)曾遭到時(shí)任董事霍華德?舒爾茨、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資人約翰?杜爾和瑪麗?米克爾【杜爾和米克爾所在的凱鵬華盈（Kleiner Perkins）迄今也沒(méi)有賣出Groupon股票】等人的反對(duì)?！度A爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》是這么寫的： ????據(jù)了解這些討論的人士稱，安德森等幾位Groupon顧問(wèn)竭力主張不要按計(jì)劃推進(jìn)IPO。4月份已辭去Groupon董事職務(wù)的星巴克（Starbucks Corp.）首席執(zhí)行官霍華德?舒爾茨也表達(dá)過(guò)對(duì)于Groupon倉(cāng)促上市的擔(dān)憂。據(jù)熟悉這些討論的人士稱，Groupon投資者、風(fēng)投公司凱鵬華盈的合伙人約翰?杜爾和瑪麗?米克爾也表示過(guò)擔(dān)憂。 ????有兩點(diǎn)要說(shuō)明：多位消息人士告訴我，上述四人都表達(dá)過(guò)對(duì)Groupon上市時(shí)機(jī)的擔(dān)憂，這一點(diǎn)是準(zhǔn)確的。但他們也告訴我，經(jīng)過(guò)認(rèn)真討論后，沒(méi)有一個(gè)人采取行動(dòng)要換掉Groupon首席執(zhí)行官安德魯?梅森（如果沒(méi)被說(shuō)服，在這樣的情況下投資者可以這么做），而且這四人中至少有兩位后來(lái)明確支持Groupon的上市時(shí)機(jī)選擇。 ????而且，在公司上市時(shí)有不同意見，與對(duì)公司失去信心根本不是一碼事。一項(xiàng)戰(zhàn)略決定就好比是森林中的一棵樹而已，就算它是一棵大樹依然如此。 ????再次說(shuō)明，我不是在告訴大家要買進(jìn)Groupon的股票，或者說(shuō)Groupon的多元化策略有望把它打造成下一個(gè)eBay。我只是想告訴你，不要輕信所有的負(fù)面報(bào)道標(biāo)題。 ????譯者：早稻米 |
????You want to write a story about how Groupon isn't living up to expectations, you'll get no objection from me. But this particular effort is misleading, and made even worse by its prominent placement. ????The story's thesis is that some early investors are selling Groupon stock, which must mean they've "lost faith in companies that had been expected to drive a new Internet boom." Exhibit A is Marc Andreessen, whose firm has dumped all of the shares it acquired in a January 2011 pre-IPO financing round. ????I'm not exactly sure why Andreessen Horowitz selling the shares is a negative, given that it booked a $14 million profit off of its $40 million investment. Not a venture home-run, but not terrible for an 18-20 month hold. And I'm pretty sure that generating positive returns is a venture capitalist's primary job responsibility (not tech cheer-leading, although it's an easily forgiven error). ????More important, however, is the broader conclusion about lost faith in the new Internet crop. Pretty tough leap, considering that Andreessen Horowitz is among those early Facebook (FB) investors that didn't sell shares when the lockup expired last week. Is Facebook not one of the "companies that had been expected to drive a new Internet boom?" Or is selling Groupon somehow more important than holding Facebook? Or did WSJ just not bother to check? ????Also not mentioned is that New Enterprise Associates, Groupon's earliest and largest outside investor, has held onto all of its shares since Groupon went public. You'd think that would be some relevant balance for a story titled "Groupon investors give up." Particularly given that Andreessen was referred to as "among the investors who helped fuel Groupon's rapid ascent," despite investing a full three years after NEA first cut a check. ????And then there is what WSJ does mention: How certain pre-IPO investors, including T. Rowe Price and Morgan Stanley (MS), not only haven't sold Groupon stock, but actually have increased their holdings. Did the headline writer not read down that far? ????Finally, there is a revelation in this story that Groupon went public over the objections of people like then-board member Howard Schultz and venture capitalists John Doerr and Mary Meeker (whose firm, Kleiner Perkins, also hasn't dumped shares). Here is how WSJ put it: ????Mr. Andreessen was among several Groupon advisers who urged it not to go through with its IPO as planned, said people with knowledge of the discussions. Starbucks Corp. Chief Executive Howard Schultz, who resigned as a Groupon director in April, also voiced worries that Groupon was going public too soon. So did John Doerr and Mary Meeker, partners at venture-capital firm Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, a Groupon investor, said people familiar with those discussions. ????Two points: Multiple sources tell me that it is accurate that all four people listed raised concerns about the timing of Groupon's IPO. But they also tell me that, following intense discussions, none moved to replace CEO Andrew Mason -- which is what investors can do in such circumstances, if unpersuaded -- and that at least two of the four would go on to explicitly endorse the timing. ????Moreover, disagreeing with when a company wants to go public is not the same as losing faith in that company. One strategic decision is a tree within the forest, albeit a large one. ????Again, I'm not telling you to buy Groupon stock or that the company's diversification strategy will make it the next eBay. I'm simply telling you not to believe every negative headline you read. |
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