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專欄 - 蘋果2_0

中國移動用戶能不能用上iPhone 5

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2012年09月11日

蘋果(Apple)公司內(nèi)部流傳著一個老笑話,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現(xiàn)實扭曲力場”:你離他太近的話,就會相信他所說的話。蘋果的數(shù)百萬用戶中已經(jīng)有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,而很多蘋果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿。不過,Elmer-DeWitt認(rèn)為,在報道蘋果公司時有點懷疑精神不是壞事。聽他的應(yīng)該沒錯。要知道,他自從1982年就開始報道蘋果、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經(jīng)營該公司。
6.55億中國移動用戶拭目以待。新一代iPhone能否兼容中國移動的LTE網(wǎng)絡(luò)?這個問題至關(guān)重要,因為它直接決定蘋果能否打破持續(xù)四年之久的僵局,和中國移動成功牽手。而答案取決于蘋果將采用哪種芯片。

????
中國用戶瘋狂追求iPhone 4S。
圖片來源:Photo: MIC Gadget
?

????上周五,《華爾街日報》(Wall Street Journal)一如往常,援引來自匿名“消息靈通人士”的說法稱,蘋果(Apple)將于下周發(fā)布的新款iPhone有望支持歐洲和亞洲制式的最高速無線4G LTE網(wǎng)絡(luò)。

????這確實是個新聞,因為目前的LTE(長期演進(jìn)技術(shù))網(wǎng)絡(luò)至少有40種之多,第一款支持LTE的蘋果設(shè)備是去年3月發(fā)布的全新iPad,不過它僅支持美國和加拿大運營商的LTE網(wǎng)絡(luò)。

????不過,《華爾街日報》的線人并未透露iPhone 5的LTE解調(diào)器是否兼容世界最大的運營商——中國移動(China Mobile)。中國移動擁有6.55億移動用戶,是威瑞森無線(Verizon Wireless)和美國電話電報移動公司(AT&T Mobility)兩者用戶數(shù)之和的三倍。這個問題至關(guān)重要,因為它直接決定蘋果能否打破持續(xù)四年之久的僵局,和中國移動成功牽手。

????答案取決于蘋果將采用哪種芯片。目前市面上已有數(shù)款芯片能夠做到這點,而高通(Qualcomm)也已制造該產(chǎn)品一年有余。如果新款iPhone選擇其中一款芯片,那么它在全球最大手機市場的目標(biāo)用戶群可以一舉擴大兩倍。

????但這并不意味著6.55億中國移動用戶都可以享受到高速4G網(wǎng)絡(luò)——至少不是馬上就可以。雖然中國移動擁有中國70%的市場份額,但其高速網(wǎng)絡(luò)的建設(shè)速度非常緩慢。大部分用戶仍在使用2G網(wǎng)絡(luò),只有不到20%的用戶升級到了3G。盡管中國移動已開始試點4G,不過截止到今年5月,參與試點的城市只有6個。

????不過這一切都無關(guān)緊要。中國用戶非常喜歡手機,他們總是迫不及待地更新?lián)Q代,拿到最新款。今年1月,iPhone 4S在北京首發(fā)時,壓倒性的需求曾迫使蘋果不得不終止銷售,而這種需求主要是受到了黃牛黨的推動,他們忙著搶購iPhone,然后轉(zhuǎn)手賣給中國移動的用戶。今年初,中國移動宣布,其iPhone用戶數(shù)已達(dá)到1,200萬。雖然蘋果并未和中國移動簽約,而iPhone也不支持中移動的3G網(wǎng)絡(luò),但眾多用戶仍心甘情愿地使用蝸牛般的2G網(wǎng)絡(luò)。

????譯者:項航

????The Wall Street Journal, quoting the usual unnamed "people familiar with the matter," reported Friday that the new iPhone that Apple (AAPL) is expected to unveil next week will work on the fastest wireless 4G LTE networks in Europe and Asia.

????That's news because there are at least three dozen flavors of LTE (for long-term evolution), and the first Apple device to support the technology, the new iPad introduced last March, was only compatible with the bands used by U.S. and Canadian carriers.

????What the Journal's sources didn't say is whether the iPhone 5's LTE modem is compatible with the biggest carrier of them all: China Mobile (CHL), with 655 million wireless subscribers -- three times as many as Verizon Wireless (VZ) and AT&T Mobility (T) combined.

????It's a critical question -- one that could break the impasse that has prevented Apple from signing a contract with China Mobile for more than four years.

????The answer depends on which chipset Apple has decided to use. There are several on the market that will do the trick; Qualcomm (QCOM) has been making them for more than a year (seehere). If the new iPhone uses one of them, it could triple its addressable user base in the world's largest mobile phone market.

????Not that those 655 million subscribers will get to enjoy those 4G speeds -- at least not at first. Although China Mobile controls 70% of the Chinese mobile market, it has been slow to deploy the faster network protocols. The lion's share of its network is still running at 2G speeds; less than 20% has been upgraded to 3G. And although it has begun testing 4G hotspots, as of last May they were up and running in only six Chinese cities.

????But it almost doesn't matter. The Chinese love their cell phones, and they like to have the latest model. The crushing demand for the iPhone 4S that forced Apple to shut down sales in Beijing last January was fueled largely by scalpers snapping them up for resale to China Mobile users. Earlier this year, the carrier announced that even without a contract with Apple -- or an iPhone that could communicate with its home-grown 3G protocol -- there were already 12 million iPhones on its network running at sluggish 2G speeds.

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