蘋果盈利下降是結(jié)構(gòu)性還是季節(jié)性？
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????2012年3月，蘋果公司（Apple）季度毛利率（它是衡量一家公司將銷售額轉(zhuǎn)換為利潤效率的指標）和其股價季度表現(xiàn)（漲幅達29%）一起達到了頂峰，高達47.4%。但是上去的遲早會下來，但是當蘋果公司警告華爾街稱，公司的毛利率可能會下跌 時，蘋果的股票卻連續(xù)暴跌了4個月。蘋果的毛利率上個季度跌到了36%，本季度在37.5%和38.5%之間。 ????而蘋果公司2013年1季度毛利率超過預(yù)期這一事實 – 報38.5%，而非36% - 都未被市場視而不見。華爾街堅信，蘋果公司40%多毛利率的日子已經(jīng)一去不復(fù)返。正如他們所言，這種變化是結(jié)構(gòu)性，而非季節(jié)性的。但是在周一早些時候發(fā)布的一份提示中，摩根史丹利（Morgan Stanley）的凱蒂?休伯蒂在蘋果公司的季報 SEC Form 10-Q 中找到證據(jù)，顯示毛利率較低的季節(jié)也許即將結(jié)束，公司的毛利率以及股價可能會在2013年下半年獲得顯著改善。 ????她強調(diào)了三點：（以下內(nèi)容為引用） ????生產(chǎn)設(shè)備計劃采購金額較低，預(yù)示著iPhone 5S毛利率將會提高。季報披露設(shè)備承諾采購金額為9.04億美元，而僅僅在兩個季度之前蘋果公司為iPhone 5投資新的in-cell觸控屏?xí)r該數(shù)據(jù)達到45億美元。金額下降可能是由于iPhone 5S不要求顯著改變硬件，因此13年下半年iPhone毛利率將會大幅度增加。 ????12月NAND閃存價格受挫，但是可能會有所緩和。零部件銷售額遞延利潤是蘋果公司相對于現(xiàn)貨價格的零部件成本優(yōu)勢，并與蘋果公司的毛利率相關(guān)。12年下半年這一指標出現(xiàn)下滑，但是未來可能會改善，因為近期NAND合約和現(xiàn)貨價格之間的價差在擴大。更為有利的NAND合約價格趨勢與蘋果公司上周增加在9.7" iPad中采用NAND閃存的做法一致。 ????蘋果公司表外承諾采購金額季度環(huán)比并未惡化。198億美元的承諾采購金額季度環(huán)比下降了10%，這一數(shù)據(jù)的五年平均值為-12%，并暗示13年1季度營收可能更接近-17%的季節(jié)平均值，而非我們模型所示的-21% ????與大多數(shù)賣方蘋果公司分析師一樣，休伯蒂在上個月的盈利報告公布之后，把她的目標價從714美元下調(diào)到了630美元。但是在她的看漲情景分析中，蘋果股價到明年2月將會竄高至980美元。因為蘋果公司今年夏季將會發(fā)布新的iPad和低成本iPhone，2014年之前與中國移動達成交易，并將更多現(xiàn)金返還給股東。（財富中文網(wǎng)） |
????Apple's (AAPL) quarterly gross margin -- the measure of how efficiently a company turns sales into profits -- peaked in March 2012 at an astonishing 47.4%, along with its quarterly stock performance (up 29%). ????But what goes up must come down, and when Apple warned Wall Street that its margins were likely to fall -- to 36% last quarter and somewhere between 37.5% and 38.5% this quarter -- the stock went into a four-month swoon. ????The fact that Apple beat its GM guidance for Q1 2013 -- returning 38.5% profits rather than 36% -- fell on deaf ears. The Street was convinced that the days of Apple's 40-plus percent margins were over. The change, as they say, was structural, not seasonal. ????But in a note issued early Monday, Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty finds evidence in Apple's SEC Form 10-Q that the season of lower margins may be ending, and that the company's GM% -- and share price -- could improve significantly in the second half of 2013. ????She highlights three bullet points: (I quote) ????? Lower planned purchases of production equipment sets up for higher iPhone 5S margin. The 10-Q discloses $904M of commitments for equipment purchases compare to $4.5B just two quarters ago when Apple invested in new in-cell touch displays for the iPhone 5. The decrease is likely due to iPhone 5S not requiring significant hardware changes, therefore iPhone GM could be much higher in C2H13. ????? NAND prices hurt in December but could ease. Deferred margin on component sales represents Apple's component cost advantage relative to spot prices and correlates with Apple's GM. This metric deteriorated in C2H12 but could improve going forward given the recent increase in spread between NAND contract and spot prices. A more favorable NAND contract price trend is consistent with Apple increasing NAND in the 9.7" iPad last week. ????? Apple's off balance sheet purchase commitments not worse than seasonal.Purchase commitments of $19.8B fell 10% Q/Q vs. five-year average of -12%, and suggest C1Q13 revenue could trend closer to seasonal average of -17% vs. our model of -21% ????Like most sell-side Apple analysts, Huberty lowered her price target after last month's earnings report, to $630 from $714. But in her bull case scenario -- in which Apple releases a new iPad and a lower-cost iPhone this summer, cuts a deal with China Mobile by 2014 and returns more cash to shareholders -- the stock hits $980 by next February. |
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