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專欄 - 財富書簽

經(jīng)濟大革命:全球經(jīng)濟重心南移

Geoff Colvin 2013年07月02日

《財富》書簽(Weekly Read)專欄專門刊載《財富》雜志(Fortune)編輯團隊的書評,解讀商界及其他領域的新書。我們每周都會選登一篇新的評論。
全球的經(jīng)濟重心正在由北半球向南半球轉移,北半球的商界領袖們必須做好充分的準備,否則就有可能被中國海爾、巴西的百威英博、印度的GMR等來自南半球的競爭對手擊敗。如何避免這種局面?資深顧問拉姆?查蘭在他的新書中給出了自己的建議。

????你以為自己知道這一切:全球經(jīng)濟實力正在從北半球向南半球遷移。新興市場的中產(chǎn)階級正在激增;他們將變得越來越城市化,越來越年輕。世界各國政府都主張加強對各自國家重點行業(yè)和資源的控制。商業(yè)活動再也不會像從前那樣了。你以前就已經(jīng)聽說過這些。

????拉姆?查蘭的新書《全球傾斜:如何引領你的企業(yè)適應全球經(jīng)濟實力大變遷》(Global Tilt: Leading Your Business Through the Great Economic Power Shift)的一大優(yōu)點是,它表明你對這些趨勢的理解是多么地不充分。沒錯,你的確知道這些趨勢,但許多來自南半球和北半球、未能把握這些趨勢、甚至被它們壓垮的商界領袖同樣也了解這一現(xiàn)象。我們都知道這種變遷是巨大的;查蘭表明,它比我們許多人意識到的程度大得多,而且要求我們改變企業(yè)的營運方式,這種改變的劇烈程度是大多數(shù)管理者做夢也想象不到的。

????雖然經(jīng)濟實力大遷移幾乎會影響地球上每一家企業(yè),但《全球傾斜》一書主要針對的是北半球那些根本不知道他們必須在多大程度上變革企業(yè)運行方式的管理者。查蘭令人信服地表明,南半球是一個完全不同的世界(他指出,南北分界線大約位于北緯31度,大體上橫跨墨西哥、非洲和印度的頂部)。南半球的企業(yè)往往以賺取現(xiàn)金,而不是以提高根據(jù)公認會計準則(GAAP)計算的每股收益為管理宗旨;資本成本高昂;公司大多數(shù)為私人所有,而不是上市公司——這一切都與北半球的規(guī)范截然相反。社交網(wǎng)絡也完全不同;忠于職責、美德和進步的文化價值觀對他們很陌生;而政府的作用則或許會令人困惑。

????查蘭所做的不僅僅是指出這些差異,盡管他的確給出了一些很有說服力的例證。他還表明,在一個傾斜的世界中,成功的公司如何通過改變管理和領導方式贏得先機。比如,他闡述了印度電信巨頭巴帝電信公司(Bharti Airtel)如何在17個非洲國家占據(jù)主導地位,該公司CEO馬諾吉?科利如何通過掌握每個國家的當?shù)丨h(huán)境而做到這一點的——社會、經(jīng)濟和政府治理差異要求這家公司對其在印度行之有效的商業(yè)模式作出改變。

????You think you know all this: Global economic power is shifting from North to South. Emerging-market middle classes are surging; they'll be increasingly urban and young. Governments worldwide are asserting stronger control over their nations' key industries and resources. Business will never be the same. You've heard it before.

????The great virtue of Ram Charan's new book, Global Tilt: Leading Your Business Through the Great Economic Power Shift, is that it shows you how inadequate your understanding of these trends probably is. Yes, you know about them, but so did the many business leaders from North and South who failed to take advantage of them or who even got steamrollered by them. We all understand this shift is big; Charan demonstrates that it's much bigger than many of us realize and will demand far more drastic changes to the way we run our businesses than most managers have dreamed of making.

????While the shift affects virtually every business on earth, Global Tilt speaks mainly to managers from the North who have no conception of how deeply they must transform their business lives. The South, Charan shows persuasively, is a different world. (The dividing line, he notes, is about 31 degrees north latitude, which runs more or less across the tops of Mexico, Africa, and India.) Businesses in the South tend to be managed for cash, not for GAAP earnings per share; capital costs are high; companies are mostly private, not publicly held -- all opposite of Northern norms. Social networks are radically different; cultural values governing loyalty, goodness, and advancement are unfamiliar; government's role can be baffling.

????Charan does more than just point out such differences, though he does that with strong examples. He also shows how successful companies are winning in a tilted world by changing the way they're managed and led. He shows, for example, how Bharti Airtel, the Indian telecom giant, is building a dominant business in 17 African countries, and how CEO Manoj Kohli is doing it by mastering the local context in each one -- social, economic, and governmental differences that require business model changes from what worked in India.

????大多數(shù)北半球組織無法作出調(diào)整,從而無法在南半球獲取成功。預算和目標往往與老板宣示的贏取新領地的崇高愿望不匹配??冃Э己瞬荒芨鶕?jù)在南半球真正的獲勝之道作出調(diào)整。重大決策也不是在正確的地方做出的。查蘭對不可避免的失敗,以及運行良好的公司如何避免這些失敗做了一番解釋。

????最發(fā)人深省的是,《全球傾斜》一書對南半球公司羞辱北半球競爭對手的種種方式進行了廣泛的分類。許多人都知道起源自巴西的百威英博公司(AB InBev)如何通過充滿活力的全球收購不斷擴張,并最終收購了毫無準備的美國安海斯布希公司(Anheuser-Busch)。很少有人知道,一家名為 GMR,價值數(shù)十億美元的印度公司屢屢擊敗北半球競爭對手,正在世界各地獲得眾多規(guī)模巨大的基建工程,原因在于,GMR的攀升速度遠快于這些北半球公司。而在中國公司中,海爾集團(Haier Group)多年來一直出類拔萃,卓爾不群。這家專注于質量和品牌的公司現(xiàn)在已進入了161個國家,業(yè)已成為全球排名第一的家電品牌。北半球的管理者們知道這些家伙非常優(yōu)秀,但當這些管理者體會不到南半球的對手究竟有多么優(yōu)秀時,他們也就隨之成為后者的手下敗將。

????一如他此前所有的著作,查蘭告訴我們必須如何做出改變,還進行了具體的展示,他的權威性幾乎無人匹及。他是全球范圍內(nèi)一位頂級顧問,很早以前就構筑了一個良性循環(huán):每個人都咨詢他的意見,因為大家都這么做。因此,他比任何一位CEO都更加了解這些問題。他從不怯于告訴管理者們到底應該怎么做。北半球的管理者應該悉心聽取他的真知灼見,勿猶豫,勿彷徨。(財富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:任文科

????Most Northern organizations aren't tuned to succeed in the South. Budgets and goals don't match the boss's lofty stated aspirations for winning in new territories. Performance appraisals aren't aligned with what really wins in the South. Critical decisions aren't made in the right places. Charan explains the inevitable failures that follow and the ways well-run companies are avoiding them.

????Most sobering is Global Tilt's extensive taxonomy of all the ways Southern companies are humiliating competitors from the North. Many people know how AB InBev (BUD), with origins in Brazil, grew through energetic global acquisitions and eventually bought America's sadly unprepared Anheuser-Busch. Far fewer people know about GMR, a multi-billion-dollar Indian company that is beating out Northern competitors for huge infrastructure projects worldwide because it can scale faster than they can. China's Haier Group, uniquely among Chinese companies for years, focused on quality and brand; it's now in 161 countries and is the world's No. 1 appliance brand. Northern managers know these guys are good, but they suffer when they don't appreciate just how good they are.

????As in all his books, Charan tells and shows us how we must change, speaking with an authority few can match. He long ago established the virtuous circle of a top global consultant: Everybody calls him because everybody calls him. As a result, he knows more about these issues than any individual CEO. Charan isn't bashful about telling managers what to do. Managers shouldn't hesitate to do it.

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