假如卡爾?伊坎成功收購戴爾公司……
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????卡爾?伊坎昨日發(fā)布了舉債籌資52億美元競購戴爾公司（Dell Inc.）股權(quán)的細(xì)節(jié)。事實證明伊坎自身需要支付高達(dá)31億美元的巨款，而他原先估計的是最多只需要20億美元。換句話說，這次收購非常艱難。
????所以我發(fā)表了一篇文章，我的觀點是，盡管伊坎希望債務(wù)承諾能夠加強他的地位，實際上卻讓他顯得更加弱勢。畢竟，如果潛在的借款人拒絕這一請求，伊坎怎么知道持股人不會同樣反對呢？尤其是考慮到股東會采取更多的保護措施（一旦遇上麻煩，還有類似的終止費用）。此外，大量股票現(xiàn)在極有可能在套匯經(jīng)紀(jì)人手中，他們對每股13.65美元的價格很滿意，而且無意長期持有戴爾股票。 ????然后今天早上，就有許多媒體報道說，戴爾的特別委員會請求邁克爾?戴爾提高他13.65美元的股價。看起來對現(xiàn)有股東的非正式調(diào)查表明，他們對收購計劃的態(tài)度莫衷一是，有明顯跡象顯示代理權(quán)顧問公司ISS將出面反對（也許會動搖足夠的股權(quán)，讓事態(tài)發(fā)生轉(zhuǎn)變）。而鑒于特別委員會泄露了其要求以給邁克爾?戴爾增加額外壓力【盡管不是針對有所退縮的銀湖投資集團（Silver Lake）】，他們理應(yīng)感到擔(dān)憂。 ????不過不要以為邁克爾?戴爾就一定會在這點上與特別委員會合作。讓我們暫時假設(shè)收購遭到否決，伊坎隨后組建了他的董事會（我仍然不認(rèn)為會發(fā)生這種事）。屆時，邁克爾?戴爾仍然還有選擇： 1、他可以把大多數(shù)股份出讓給伊坎，這樣可以給自己留下約11%的股權(quán)（同時稀釋給其他人的派息）。 2、邁克爾?戴爾可以不出讓任何股份，這樣可以留下約41%的股權(quán)。如果戴爾公司在伊坎的管理下經(jīng)營不善，邁克爾?戴爾就能展開自己的代理權(quán)之爭，也可以提出新的收購價格（很可能低于13.65美元的股價）?；蛘咭量惨部梢岳^續(xù)執(zhí)掌戴爾公司，邁克爾?戴爾的賬面財產(chǎn)也能有所增加。 3、邁克爾?戴爾可以選擇折中的辦法（部分出讓），具體取決于他認(rèn)為什么樣的比例能產(chǎn)生最好效果。 ????誠然，如果邁克爾?戴爾在主要由伊坎持有的戴爾公司中仍身居要職，會產(chǎn)生許多重大風(fēng)險。比如，伊坎可以在邁克爾嘗試重新獲得控制權(quán)之前出售一系列業(yè)務(wù)部門，以打消他的這種想法。而隨著公司的宮廷陰謀持續(xù)下去，員工的士氣也會衰退，這會是個更寬泛的問題。 ????不過我的基本觀點是，即將到來的股東表決對邁克爾?戴爾和卡爾?伊坎來說并不是零和博弈。實際上，這可能會讓他們成為一對怨偶式的合作伙伴。（財富中文網(wǎng)） ????譯者：嚴(yán)匡正 |
????Carl Icahn yesterday laid out the details of his $5.2 billion in debt financing for Dell Inc. tender offer. Turns out Icahn himself had to put up a whopping $3.1 billion, after originally suggesting that he'd be good for $2 billion in a worst-case scenario. In other words, it was a tough sell. ????So I wrote a post arguing that while Icahn hoped the debt commitments would strengthen his position, it actually made him look weaker. After all, if prospective lenders are saying no, why does Icahn think equity holders will be any different. Particularly given that the bondholders would have greater protections (and a quasi-termination fee for their troubles)? Moreover, there's a high likelihood that the stock is now largely in the hands of arbs who are content with the $13.65 per share price, and have no interest in a longer-term hold. ????Then this morning came numerous media reports that Dell's (DELL) special committee has asked Michael Dell to raise his $13.65 per share price. Seems that informal surveys of existing shareholders have indicated the buyout vote is a toss-up, and there are strong hints that ISS will come out in opposition (something that may sway just enough shares to matter). And the special committee must be legitimately worried, given that it leaked its request as a way to put extra pressure on Michael Dell (albeit not on Silver Lake, which is stretched thread-thin as it is). ????But don't be so sure that Michael Dell is going to play ball with the special committee on this. Let's assume, for a moment, that the buyout is voted down and that Icahn subsequently gets his board installed (something I still don't believe will happen). At that point, Michael Dell still has some options: 1. He could tender most of his shares to Icahn, thus leaving him with around an 11% stake of the remaining float (and also diluting the payout for everyone else). 2. Michael Dell could tender none of his shares, thus leaving him with around a 41% ownership stake. If Dell struggles under Icahn's control, then Michael Dell would be in position to launch his own proxy fight and/or propose a new buyout offer (likely at a lower price than $13.65 per share). Or Icahn could succeed with Dell, thus buttressing Michael Dell's paper fortune. 3. Michael Dell could go for some sort of middle ground (partial tender), depending on what math he thinks works the best. ????To be sure, there are serious risks to Michael Dell remaining a major part of an Icahn-owned Dell. For example, Icahn could sell certain business units before Michael can begin trying to regain control, thus scuttling his desires to do so. And there is the broader issue of weakening employee morale as corporate palace intrigue drags on. ????But my basic point is that the upcoming shareholders vote isn't a zero sum game for either Michael Dell or Carl Icahn. In fact, it may turn them into uncomfortable partners. |
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