蘋果產(chǎn)品未來(lái)走向大預(yù)測(cè)
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????? 蒙斯特還認(rèn)為，iWatch將于2014年面世。這并不因?yàn)樗麖膩喼薜墓?yīng)商那里得到了信號(hào)，而是因?yàn)檫@符合蒂姆?庫(kù)克對(duì)新產(chǎn)品的闡述和他對(duì)手表的“強(qiáng)烈興趣”。蒙斯特說(shuō)，在像FuelBand這種地方的員工“不會(huì)無(wú)緣無(wú)故跳槽到蘋果，除非是蘋果在打手表的主意?！薄?/p> ????? 引人注目的是，在第二個(gè)演示視頻中，13位受訪者里只有1位表示有興趣購(gòu)買蘋果手表。在另外一個(gè)范圍更廣泛的調(diào)查中，12%的iPhone用戶表示他們或許會(huì)購(gòu)買iWatch；而在安卓用戶中，這個(gè)比例降到了6%。蒙斯特預(yù)計(jì)，如果蘋果能賣出500萬(wàn)到1000萬(wàn)塊手表，它的年收入則可以增加1%到2%。 ????? 蒙斯特還認(rèn)為，TouchID最后會(huì)應(yīng)用到Passbook上。后者是蘋果創(chuàng)造數(shù)字錢包的一次摸索。他說(shuō)：“錢包會(huì)變的。不是說(shuō)你可以比掏出手機(jī)更快地掏出信用卡。而是關(guān)系到用戶可以免于排隊(duì)，關(guān)系到忠誠(chéng)度計(jì)劃，關(guān)系到收據(jù)管理。蘋果需要實(shí)現(xiàn)這一點(diǎn)?！?/p> ????? 不過2012年發(fā)布的Passbook離這個(gè)目標(biāo)還差得很遠(yuǎn)。它里面只包含37個(gè)應(yīng)用。蒙斯特說(shuō)：“太寒磣了。如果有人能在會(huì)后拉住我，給我講講他究竟喜歡Passbook的什么地方，我一定會(huì)洗耳恭聽。因?yàn)槲乙恢痹谂Ω忝靼走@是個(gè)什么應(yīng)用。”
????? 假如蘋果可以把數(shù)字錢包業(yè)務(wù)的規(guī)模做到貝寶（Paypal）那樣，每年獲得90億美元的收入，公司的營(yíng)收就會(huì)提升4.5%。 ????? 視頻中，蒙斯特在路上問人們，希望蘋果接下來(lái)推出什么產(chǎn)品時(shí)，其中的一個(gè)回答是家庭自動(dòng)化?？赡艿慕M件包括智能電視、智能家電和智能溫控裝置——比如前蘋果高級(jí)副總裁托尼?法德爾發(fā)明的Nest恒溫器。這是一個(gè)很大的市場(chǎng)。美國(guó)有1.32億家庭，如果蘋果能讓其中的20%每年花上500美元，蘋果的賬目上就能增加130億美元收入。蒙斯特說(shuō)：“這是一個(gè)規(guī)模可觀的市場(chǎng)。”不出意外，他認(rèn)為iTV將是蘋果智能家居的核心部件。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)） ????譯者：嚴(yán)匡正????? |
????? He also believes an iWatch is coming in 2014, not because he's picking up signals from Asian supplier, but because it fits with what Tim Cook has said about new product categories and his "intense interest" in the watch. Recent hires from places like FuelBand "wouldn't be coming to Apple if there weren't something going on with a watch," Munster says. ????? Tellingly, of 13 consumers interviewed in a second video, only one said he'd be interested in buying a watch from Apple. In a broader survey, 12% of iPhone owners said they might buy an iWatch, a number that fell to 6% when Android users were included. Munster estimates that if Apple were to sell 5 to 10 million units, that would add 1% to 2% to Apple's annual revenues. ????? Munster also believes TouchID will eventually be exported to Passbook, Apple's fumbling attempt to create a digital wallet. "The wallet is going to change," he said. "It's not about getting your credit card out faster than your phone. It's about not waiting in line. It's about loyalty programs. It's about receipt management. Apple needs to be there." ????? But Passbook -- which launched in 2012 -- has not taken off. It only has 37 applications in it, "Which is pathetic," says Munster. "If anyone can grab me afterward and explain what they love about their Passbook app, I would love to hear it because I'm struggling to find out what that is." ????? Assuming Apple can grow a digital wallet business as big as PayPal's, about $9 billion a year, that would add about 4.5% to Apple's revenues. ????? When Munster asked his people on the street what they'd like Apple to do next, one of the themes that came up was home automation. Possible applications include smart TVs, smart appliances and smart thermostats -- like ex-Apple SVP Tony Fadell's Nest product. It's a big market. There are 132 million homes in the U.S. If Apple could get 20% of homeowners to spend $500 a year, that would add $13 billion to Apple's top line. "That's a decent size market," says Munster, who, not surprisingly, sees iTV as the center of the Apple smart home. |
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