分析師普遍看好蘋果與中移動合作前景
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????中國移動（China Mobile）iPhone分銷協(xié)議于上周日公布。大家可能認(rèn)為蘋果（Apple）分析師對此已經(jīng)沒什么可說的了，畢竟，中國移動將分銷iPhone一事已經(jīng)傳了6年了。 ????這么想你就錯了。 ????下面是我們目前看到的分析師評論的節(jié)選。未來還會出現(xiàn)更多的評論。 ????Canter Fitzgerald基金的布萊恩?懷特：蘋果與中國移動在馬年到來之際達(dá)成了iPhone分銷協(xié)議——令人興奮！上周日晚，蘋果和中國移動終于喜結(jié)連理，宣布了一項多年期協(xié)議。這份人們期待已久的協(xié)議顯示，從2014年1月17日起，iPhone將正式登陸中國移動4G和3G網(wǎng)絡(luò)。我們認(rèn)為，這份協(xié)議的時機(jī)剛剛好（2014年1月31日是馬年的第一天）。在我們看來，與中國移動的協(xié)議是蘋果與運營商進(jìn)行過的最艱難的談判。然而，我們相信，此前的漫長等待是值得的，因為iPhone將有機(jī)會在中國移動的無線用戶中拓展市場。對蘋果股票的評級：買入。目標(biāo)股價：777美元 ????巴克萊銀行（Barclays）本?雷澤斯：中國移動分銷協(xié)議出臺，現(xiàn)在需要關(guān)注利潤率與回購?！拔覀兿嘈?，在蘋果缺席上周舉行的中國移動全球合作伙伴大會后，中國移動iPhone分銷協(xié)議的發(fā)布令人松了一口氣。我們相信，在我們所研究的公司中，只有少數(shù)幾家有潛力于2014年在中國實現(xiàn)增長，而蘋果就是其中的一家。對蘋果股票的評級：增持。目標(biāo)股價：585美元 ????高盛（Goldman Sachs）比爾?紹普：蘋果終于拿下了期待已久的中國移動。“考慮到iPhone在中國市場極度夸張的價格，中國移動的補(bǔ)貼力度將在很大程度上決定移動版iPhone的銷量。與中國移動的合作為蘋果帶來了數(shù)量驚人的潛在用戶，因為中國移動目前擁有1.7億之眾3G用戶。我們相信iPhone的年銷量有望增加1500萬到2000萬部。從股市而言，蘋果股票2014年每股盈利有望上漲5%?！睂μO果股票的評級：買入，目標(biāo)股價：620美元。 ????貝爾德證券（Baird）威廉姆?鮑爾：中國移動為蘋果送上圣誕大禮。“雖然最終售價尚不得而知，但我們姑且暫定中國移動版iPhone的售價與目前的聯(lián)通版和電信版相當(dāng)。具體而言，目前在售的16GB版5S裸機(jī)價格為5288元（約合871美元），5C為4488元（約合739美元）……市場調(diào)研機(jī)構(gòu)估算，目前中國移動2G網(wǎng)絡(luò)中運行的iPhone數(shù)量已超過4000萬部，對于移動版iPhone而言，老用戶的升級潛力巨大。對蘋果股票的評級：跑贏大盤，目標(biāo)股價：620美元?！?/p> ????投資銀行Piper Jaffray的吉恩?蒙斯特：若蘋果拿下中國移動，它2014年的營收有望超出華爾街預(yù)期5%?！拔覀冋J(rèn)為，蘋果與中國移動的協(xié)議至關(guān)重要，將極大地幫助蘋果實現(xiàn)2014年一季度的營收指引。它的營收有望超過華爾街目前預(yù)期兩個百分點，意味著iPhone銷量年同比增長幅度有望達(dá)到14到20%，而華爾街此前對2013年四季度的增長預(yù)期為17%左右。我們預(yù)測中國移動在2014年將為蘋果帶來5%的營收增長。雖然我們對中國移動的拉動效應(yīng)信心十足，但出于謹(jǐn)慎，我們繼續(xù)維持此前的預(yù)測，直到蘋果公布數(shù)據(jù)。”維持增持評級，目標(biāo)股價：640美元。 ????加拿大皇家銀行（RBC），艾米特?德萊納里：中國移動牽手蘋果。這里強(qiáng)調(diào)一個事實：就數(shù)量而言，中國移動目前擁有1.81億3G用戶（總用戶數(shù)約7.63億），蘋果與中國移動的成功合作將為iPhone（5S和5C）帶來數(shù)量極為龐大的用戶群。我們預(yù)計這將在此后一年期間為蘋果帶來100億美元的營收增長，合計每股3美元。尤其考慮到隨著中國新年假期的到來，市場對iPhone的需求與日俱增，這對蘋果明年第一季度財報極為利好。與中國移動的協(xié)議為蘋果2014年一季度帶來了新的商機(jī)，將減輕對蘋果公司明年一季度營收指引的擔(dān)憂。綜合考慮，跑贏大盤，目標(biāo)股價：590美元。 ????Cowen證券的蒂莫西?阿庫里：中國移動協(xié)議公布；預(yù)計iPhone銷量持續(xù)走高?！半S著蘋果與中國移動的協(xié)議被股市消化，關(guān)注的重點應(yīng)該轉(zhuǎn)移到明年一季度的iPhone銷量，我們對此持觀望態(tài)度，同時認(rèn)為無須修正此前給出的預(yù)期以及每股590美元的目標(biāo)股價，雖然我們認(rèn)為銷量將走高。我們?nèi)匀徽J(rèn)為，2014年蘋果將推出多款新品，其中包括：1 ）在九月份推出大屏iPhone 6； 2）在五月份推出平板/翻蓋式混合設(shè)備（可能帶有鍵盤）； 3）推出iBeacon； 4）可能推出iWatch； 5）2014年年底或2015年年初推出人們期待已久的低價iPhone。跑贏大盤。每股590美元。 ????富國銀行（Wells Fargo）梅納德?恩姆：蘋果與中國移動達(dá)成協(xié)議；外加其它利好?！疤O果與中國移動達(dá)成的協(xié)議應(yīng)增強(qiáng)iPhone在今年四季度和明年一季度的銷售信心。中國移動的TDLTE網(wǎng)絡(luò)是2.5GHz頻段，這對iPhone與斯普林特（Sprint，詹妮弗?弗里徹跟進(jìn)該公司）的合作而言是利好消息，因為斯普林特計劃使用從Clearwire手中收購的2.5GHz頻段在2014年在市區(qū)鋪設(shè)高速4G網(wǎng)絡(luò)。與大盤持平。（財富中文網(wǎng)） ????譯者：項航 |
????You might think that after six years worth of speculation, Apple (AAPL) analysts would have nothing left to say about the China Mobile (CHL) iPhone distribution deal announced Sunday. ????You would be wrong. ????Below: Excerpts from the notes we've seen so far. More as they come in. ????Brian White, Canter Fitzgerald: Apple & China Mobile Saddle Up the iPhone for the Year of the Horse -- Giddy Up! "Sunday evening, Apple and China Mobile finally tied the knot with a multi-year agreement announced. This long-awaited agreement includes Apple's new iPhones that will be available on the China Mobile 4G & 3G networks on January 17, 2014. In our view, this agreement is well timed for the Chinese New Year that begins on January 31, 2014, the year of the "horse". In our view, this has been the most difficult carrier agreement for Apple to negotiate in its history; however, we believe the opportunity for the iPhone to expand its reach within China Mobile's wireless subscriber base will prove to be well worth the wait." Rating: Buy. Price target: $777 ????Ben Reitzes, Barclays: China Mobile Deal Arrives, Focus Now on Margins and Buyback. "We believe this announcement is a relief given concerns after the absence of Apple at China Mobile's Global Partnership Conference last week. We believe Apple is one of the few companies in our coverage that has the potential to grow within China in 2014." Overweight. $585. ????Bill Shope, Goldman Sachs: Apple signs long-awaited China Mobile deal. "Given Apple's steep wholesale prices in China for the iPhone, we believe subsidy levels will be key to determining steady-state volume levels. With that said, this deal gives Apple access to a growing smartphone installed base at China Mobile, which currently stands at 170 million 3G customers. We believe this could add another 15-20 million units to Apple's annual iPhone shipments, and potentially boost CY2014E EPS by more than 5%." Buy. $620. ????William Power, Baird: China Mobile Under the Christmas Tree. "Pricing details have not yet been divulged, though we would tentatively expect something similar to the current China Unicom and Telecom deals. Excluding subsidies, which are currently available, the 16GB 5S retails for $871 with the 5C retailing for $739... Market research estimates suggest there could already be 40 million+ iPhones on China Mobile's 2G network, providing a significant upgrade opportunity.Outperform. $620. ????Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray: China Mobile Deal Signed; Should Add 5% To Street Revenue In 2014. "We believe the iPhone on China Mobile essentially de-risks the Mar-14 guide with revenue guidance likely in-line to 2% higher than current Street estimates, and implies 14-20% y/y iPhone unit growth vs. the Street at ~17% for Dec-13. For 2014, we believe China Mobile should add 5% to Street 2014 revenue estimates. While we have a high degree of confidence that China Mobile will be additive to Street numbers in 2014, we are taking a conservative approach and leaving our estimates unchanged until Apple reports." Overweight. $640. ????Amit Daryanani, RBC: China Mobile to Join Apple Carrier List. All You Need to Know: As of November, China Mobile serves 181M 3G customers (763M total subscribers) and the AAPL/China Mobile deal opens a large subscriber base for the iPhone product line (5s/5c). We believe this could add $10B/$3.00 to Apple's annual financial model over the NTM period. Notably, the addition should materially impact Apple's Mar-qtr as Chinese new year sales should be bolstered by the increased demand and market opportunity. Given the increased March opportunity from the China Mobile deal, concerns surrounding Mar-qtr guide should decrease.Outperform. $590. ????Timothy Arcuri, Cowen: China Mobile Official; Estimates Still Biased Higher. "With the CHL announcement now on the tape, the focus should shift to March units where we are taking a wait and see approach and see no reason to modify our estimates or $590 target, although we feel it is more biased to the upside. We continue to see 2014 as a year where AAPL regains its product mojo including: 1) a larger screen iPhone 6 in Sept; 2) a tablet/clamshell hybrid (potentially with a keyboard) in May; 3) iBeacon; 4) potential iWatch; and 5) a long-awaited truly purpose-built low- cost iPhone in late '14/early '15." Outperform. $590. ????Maynard Um, Wells Fargo: AAPL Signs China Mobile; Other Positive Implications. "The deal should give further confidence to both December and March quarter iPhone units. China Mobile's TD?LTE network operates in the 2.5GHz band, which could also bode well for iPhone at Sprint [covered by Jennifer Fritzsche], which plans to overlay a faster 4G coverage in urban areas in 2014 using the 2.5GHz spectrum acquired through Clearwire." Market weight. |
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