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專欄 - 蘋果2_0

亞馬遜Fire手機(jī)能撼動蘋果iPhone嗎

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2014年06月23日

蘋果(Apple)公司內(nèi)部流傳著一個老笑話,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現(xiàn)實(shí)扭曲力場”:你離他太近的話,就會相信他所說的話。蘋果的數(shù)百萬用戶中已經(jīng)有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,而很多蘋果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿。不過,Elmer-DeWitt認(rèn)為,在報(bào)道蘋果公司時有點(diǎn)懷疑精神不是壞事。聽他的應(yīng)該沒錯。要知道,他自從1982年就開始報(bào)道蘋果、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經(jīng)營該公司。
亞馬遜第一款智能手機(jī)Fire更多的是一款網(wǎng)絡(luò)購物神器,主要是為亞馬遜的電商王國服務(wù)。它暫時對蘋果還構(gòu)不成太大的威脅,但無疑有能力在復(fù)雜且競爭產(chǎn)品眾多的智能手機(jī)市場占據(jù)一席之地。

????沒有哪個腦子正常的人會把自己的iPhone換成Amazon Fire。正如新聞網(wǎng)站Quartz的丹?弗洛默所言,自稱手機(jī)的Amazon Fire明明是一款購物設(shè)備。

????話雖如此,上周三,由亞馬遜首席執(zhí)行官杰夫?貝佐斯在西雅圖某倉庫發(fā)布的智能手機(jī)Amazon Fire依然是一款不容小覷的設(shè)備,它令人從全新的視角審視亞馬遜和蘋果這兩大科技巨頭的商業(yè)模式。

????去年夏天,Asymco的賀拉斯?德迪歐在名為《蘋果反對者》(The Anti-Apple)的文章中寫道:“蘋果(Apple)和亞馬遜(Amazon)可謂“大同小異?!眱杉夜径贾铝τ谠谑芸厍铱深A(yù)見的環(huán)境中,以便利性和易用性“取悅客戶”。兩者都擁有龐大的客戶群(蘋果有8億用戶,亞馬遜有2.5億用戶)。而現(xiàn)在,兩家公司都在銷售智能手機(jī),而且售價基本相同。

????兩者主要的區(qū)別在于,蘋果的使命是打造最好的產(chǎn)品,這也是蘋果首席執(zhí)行官蒂姆?庫克常常掛在嘴邊的一句話。

????亞馬遜的Fire無需成為最好的產(chǎn)品,它只要足夠好就行了。Fire的使命是,使用戶能更順暢的在亞馬遜不斷擴(kuò)張的零售帝國進(jìn)行沖動性購物。如果能通過名為Firefly的掃描購買功能做到這一點(diǎn),亞馬遜的2.5億用戶中,一部分原本使用較低端手機(jī)的用戶就會購買Amazon Fire手機(jī)。

????但原本使用更高端手機(jī)的用戶卻不會降低標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。上周三,蘋果的忠實(shí)粉絲對Fire的用戶界面嗤之以鼻,說它“一塌糊涂”。目前,F(xiàn)ire僅在美國電話電報(bào)公司(AT&T)的網(wǎng)絡(luò)上運(yùn)行。除非開發(fā)者們相信Fire將大熱,否則不會有大量針對這款手機(jī)開發(fā)的應(yīng)用。而由于采用Android的分支版本,F(xiàn)ire無法運(yùn)行蘋果應(yīng)用商店(App Store)或谷歌(Google)Play平臺上購買的應(yīng)用。

????不過,F(xiàn)ire還是比翻蓋手機(jī)強(qiáng):它自帶1年免費(fèi)Amazon Prime快遞服務(wù);它的攝像頭據(jù)說相當(dāng)好;它還有一些出色的功能(包括3D、求救以及scroll'n'roll功能)。而且貝佐斯大肆為Fire向每位登陸亞馬遜的用戶做廣告。除非Fire在實(shí)際使用中出問題,否則它很可能將在由(把持高端市場的)蘋果和(統(tǒng)治中低端市場的)三星(Samsung)支配的過度飽和的智能手機(jī)市場占據(jù)一席之地。

????亞馬遜和蘋果還有一個或許是最重要的區(qū)別:

????蘋果的iTunes用戶群正呈幾何級數(shù)增長,但單位用戶銷售額正在下降。亞馬遜用戶群的增長沒那么迅猛,單位用戶銷售額也比較平穩(wěn)。(賀拉斯?德迪歐給出的圖表轉(zhuǎn)載如下。)

????德迪歐在四月份寫道:“蘋果的用戶增長是擴(kuò)大設(shè)備組合及分銷的結(jié)果。而亞馬遜的用戶增長是擴(kuò)大物流和商品組合的結(jié)果。后者難以在全球范圍內(nèi)實(shí)現(xiàn)??梢哉f,亞馬遜無法獲得蘋果那樣的幾何級數(shù)式增長……因?yàn)樗蟛糠咒N售的完成必須依賴卡車、道路和監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:項(xiàng)航

????Nobody in their right mind is going to swap an iPhone for an Amazon Fire — a shopping machine that calls itself a phone, as Quartz’ Dan Frommer deftly put it.

????That said, the smartphone unveiled by CEO Jeff Bezos in a Seattle warehouse Wednesday is a serious device that puts the business models of two tech giants in a new light.

????“Apple and Amazon are much more alike than they are different,” Asymco’s Horace Dediu wrote last summer in an essay called The Anti-Apple. They’re both in the business of “delighting customers” in controlled, predictable environments with convenience and ease of use. They both have huge customer bases (800 million for Apple, 250 million for Amazon). And now they both sell smartphones. For roughly the same price.

????The main difference is that Apple’s AAPL -0.35% mission, as Tim Cook never tires of saying, is to make the very best products.

????Amazon’s Fire doesn’t have to be the best. It just has to be good enough. Its mission is to make impulse buying at Amazon’s AMZN -2.21% growing retail empire even more friction-free. If it does that well – using a point-and-buy feature called Firefly — some portion of those 250 million customers will trade up for one.

????But they won’t trade down. Compared with an iPhone, Apple loyalists sniffed Wednesday, Fire’s user interface is “a mess.” It only runs, for now, on AT&T’s T 0.45% network. There won’t be a flood of new apps until developers are persuaded that it’s going to take off. And because it uses a forked version of Android, it can’t run apps purchased on either Apple’s App Store or Google GOOG 0.28% Play.

????Still, it’s better than a flip phone. It comes with 12 months of free Amazon Prime shipping. Its camera is said to be excellent. It boasts some whizzy features (3D, Mayday, scroll’n’roll). And Bezos is not too proud to stick an ad for it in the face of every Amazon user who logs on. Unless Fire melts down in real-world usage, it will probably succeed in establishing a beachhead in an over-crowded smartphone market dominated by Apple (which skims off the cream) and Samsung (which, if you’ll pardon a badly mixed metaphor, mops up most of the rest).

????One more difference between Amazon and Apple, perhaps the most important:

????Apple’s iTunes user base is growing exponentially but its sales per user are falling. Amazon’s user base is growing arithmetically, and its sales per user are relatively flat. (See Horace Dediu’s charts, reproduced below.)

????“Apple’s user growth is a function of expanding its device portfolio and distribution,” Dediu wrote in April. “Amazon’s user growth is a function of expanding its logistics and merchandise mix. This is also not easy to do globally. Arguably, Amazon cannot scale in the exponential rates seen by Apple… because it has to depend on trucks and roads and regulators to complete most of its sales.”

?

上圖上部分為蘋果iTunes每賬戶平均綜合營收與iTunes賬戶數(shù)量的增長趨勢對比;下部分為亞馬遜活躍賬務(wù)平均產(chǎn)品銷售額與活躍賬戶數(shù)量的增長趨勢對比。來源:Asymco

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