伊坎為何認(rèn)為蘋果股價應(yīng)翻番
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????卡爾?伊坎在長達(dá)4,200字的《致蒂姆?庫克的一封信》中，解釋了他為什么給蘋果（Apple）估出了目前整個華爾街最高的目標(biāo)股價——幾乎是當(dāng)下股價的兩倍。盡管你得耐著性子讀完大段的甜言蜜語、諂媚討好、產(chǎn)品評估和毫不害臊的自我夸耀之后，才能了解到這一點。 ????他的論述非常跳躍——他喜歡比較當(dāng)下和預(yù)期的市盈率（P/E）——不過其他人都可以看看他的計算方法：（引用如下） ????? 在經(jīng)過凈現(xiàn)金值調(diào)整后，根據(jù)我們對蘋果2015年的每股收益預(yù)期，公司股票目前的市盈率（股價與每股收益之間的比值）只有8倍，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于大盤指數(shù)的整體水平——根據(jù)市場對2015年的平局預(yù)期，標(biāo)普500指數(shù)目前的市盈率達(dá)到15倍。相較于標(biāo)普500指數(shù)的緩慢增長，我們預(yù)計蘋果的每股收益將在2016財年和2017財年分別上漲30%。 ????對2016和2017財年的增長預(yù)期讓我們有充分的理由來使用基于2015年預(yù)期值19倍的市盈率來估算蘋果股價，綜合凈現(xiàn)金值考慮之后可以得到蘋果目前的合理股價應(yīng)該達(dá)到203美元。The literary device of a “l(fā)etter” to Cook breaks down pretty quickly. Apple’s CEO doesn’t need to be told how great Apple’s products are. Or how “flawed and fragmented” Google’s Android. ????從文學(xué)手法來說，這封致庫克的公開信很快就跑題了。蘋果的首席執(zhí)行官不需要聽伊坎再嘮叨一遍蘋果的產(chǎn)品有多么優(yōu)秀，或是谷歌（Google）安卓系統(tǒng)的生態(tài)環(huán)境有多么“破碎支離”。 ????同樣無甚邏輯的，是他對蘋果董事會提出的大批回購股票的要求。 ????根據(jù)伊坎所述，在自身利益的驅(qū)使下，他很快就會敦促投資公司把錢投入蘋果。不過如果這是不可避免的，蘋果為何還要擴大已經(jīng)是公司歷史上最大的股票回購規(guī)模？ ????所以，這并不是一份給蒂姆?庫克的信，而是一封給投資者的信，告訴他們要盡快購買蘋果的股票。 ????而且，這是在蘋果股價上漲前的提前邀功。（財富中文網(wǎng)） ????譯者：嚴(yán)匡正 |
????You have to wade through thick paragraphs of wheedling, flattery, product assessment and unabashed self-aggrandizement to get there, but buried in Carl Icahn’s rambling 4,200-word “l(fā)etter to Tim Cook” is his justification for the highest Apple price target on Wall Street — nearly twice the current consensus. ????His argument takes some wild leaps — he likes to compare P/Es in the hand with P/Es in the bush — but the math is there for anyone to see: (I quote) ????? Apple, adjusting for net cash, currently sells at a P/E (price to earnings per share ratio) of only 8x our FY 2015 forecast, a significantly lower P/E than a broad market index, the S&P 500, which trades today at a P/E of 15x FY 2015 consensus. ????? In contrast to the S&P 500’s slower growth, we expect Apple to grow its EPS by 30% in each of FY 2016 and FY 2017. ????? Our forecasted growth for FY 2016 and FY 2017 more than adequately justifies using a P/E multiple of 19x our FY 2015 forecast, which along with net cash values Apple at $203 per share today. ????. ????The literary device of a “l(fā)etter” to Cook breaks down pretty quickly. Apple’s CEO doesn’t need to be told how great Apple’s products are. Or how “flawed and fragmented” Google’s Android. ????What also breaks down is the logic of his pitch to Apple’s board of directors for a massive tender offer to repurchase shares. ????According to Icahn, self interest will soon force mutual funds to pour money back into Apple. But if that’s inevitable, why would the company need to enlarge what is already the largest share buyback in the history of capitalism? ????No, this isn’t a letter to Tim Cook at all. It’s a letter to investors, telling them to buy Apple before it’s too late. ????And taking credit in advance for any gains in Apple’s stock price. |
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