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底特律面臨千載難逢的機(jī)遇
 作者: Alex Taylor III    時(shí)間: 2011年04月22日    來源: 財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)
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????五十年以來,面對豐田(Toyota)和本田(Honda)等日系汽車制造商更精巧舒適的車型設(shè)計(jì),底特律三大汽車制造商(通用汽車、福特和克萊斯勒——譯注)節(jié)節(jié)敗退。在此期間,日系車制造商已突破貿(mào)易限制、幣值高估以及“購買美國貨”論調(diào)的重圍,并在美國贏得了超過三分之一的汽車市場份額。

????現(xiàn)在,扭轉(zhuǎn)乾坤的時(shí)機(jī)到了。對于美系汽車制造商,這是歷經(jīng)兩代人以來的最佳機(jī)遇。他們有可能擊退日系汽車,重新奪回本土江山。

????一系列始料不及的事件使這場博弈向美方傾斜,比如長期的產(chǎn)品趨勢和短期匯率波動(dòng);更為不幸的是,三月日本大地震之后,日系汽車生產(chǎn)面臨著接踵而來的斷供危機(jī)。

????首先,過去油價(jià)攀升總會使得日系汽車獲利,現(xiàn)在底特律終于得以扭轉(zhuǎn)局面。

????以往,油價(jià)曾于1974年和1980年兩度飆升,甚至在2008年仍不改瘋漲勢頭。這種時(shí)候,日系汽車制造商總能從中獲利,原因在于他們可以隨時(shí)供應(yīng)小型車,而這恰是美系汽車制造商所望塵莫及的。二十世紀(jì)七十年代,豐田卡羅拉(Toyota Corolla)、本田思域(Honda Civic)曾與雪佛蘭織女星(Chevy Vega)、福特平托(Ford Pinto)一爭雌雄。而在2008年,面對每加侖4美元的高油價(jià),豐田普銳斯(Toyota Prius)備受消費(fèi)者親睞。

????不過,2011年情況有了變化。通用汽車公司(General Motors)已售出5萬多輛小型車雪佛蘭克魯茲(Chevy Cruze);與此同時(shí),他們還打算在今年下半年投放上市超小型索尼克(Sonic)和超微型樂馳(Spark)。今年三月,福特銷售了17,178輛新、舊款??怂梗‵ocus)和9,787輛嘉年華(Fiesta),這些小型車和微型車占據(jù)其車型比例的三分之一。克萊斯勒(Chrysler)在菲亞特500(Fiat500)上市當(dāng)月便成功銷售了500輛該車,這個(gè)數(shù)字確實(shí)不大,卻足以避免該公司在小型車市場的競爭中被淘汰出局。

????底特律尚落后的,是在高燃油經(jīng)濟(jì)的替代燃料汽車這一細(xì)分市場。今年三月,豐田創(chuàng)下了18,605輛油電混合型普銳斯的驚人銷售佳績,并且在這個(gè)已霸占了十年的細(xì)分市場里,仍然處于領(lǐng)先地位。相比之下,通用汽車的雪佛蘭沃藍(lán)達(dá)(Chevy Volt) 雖然具有復(fù)雜的汽油輔助電力的動(dòng)力系統(tǒng),但在上市的第二個(gè)月里僅賣出了608輛。

????隨著小型汽車的利多趨勢,底特律的下一個(gè)重大機(jī)會在于,日元堅(jiān)挺所導(dǎo)致的日本業(yè)界日益升高的成本。上世紀(jì)70年代,適逢日本平穩(wěn)擴(kuò)張期,日元曾一度低至300日元兌1美元。 此后,日元逐漸走強(qiáng)。盡管如此,在2005年前后仍維持在120日元兌1美元的水平。通用汽車公司前任首席執(zhí)行官瑞克?瓦格納經(jīng)常抱怨日本政府不公道,為了讓本國汽車制造商更有競爭力,刻意壓低日元匯率。日本從未承認(rèn)這點(diǎn)。當(dāng)然,瓦格納也已經(jīng)卸任。

????日元持續(xù)走強(qiáng)。在上月日本災(zāi)難性地震之后,日元兌美元匯率竟攀升至76.53,創(chuàng)下歷史新高。一場自然災(zāi)害居然能使日元走強(qiáng),似乎是有悖常理的,但交易員們的說法是預(yù)期日本將換回本國貨幣以重建家園。

????直至本文撰稿時(shí)日元又降至84:1的美元比,這對于日系汽車制造商而言,仍然負(fù)擔(dān)沉重,因?yàn)槿丈淘诿绹N售的三分之一的汽車及零件是在日本本土制造?,F(xiàn)在不僅商業(yè)成本提高了,而且收入也減少了,因?yàn)樵诿涝骰厝毡居謨稉Q成日元之后,實(shí)際收益又打了一層折扣。

????但是日元走強(qiáng)帶來的貿(mào)易庇護(hù)不會持續(xù)太久,因?yàn)槿障灯囍圃焐虃円苍诩铀俨扇_策略(hedging strategies)。例如,很久之前,豐田就聲稱有意將普銳斯生產(chǎn)線轉(zhuǎn)移到美國。不過,底特律雖然已大幅降低了與日本相比的成本劣勢,但是仍有必要趁勢快速推進(jìn)才行。

????總之,底特律汽車制造商可以利用接下來的幾個(gè)月時(shí)間大力宣傳,奪回那些平常青睞購買日系車的美國消費(fèi)者。由于日本地震導(dǎo)致供應(yīng)短缺,日系汽車變得要么太貴,要么干脆買不到。那些習(xí)慣買日系車的美國消費(fèi)者不得不考慮其他產(chǎn)品。

????供應(yīng)短缺不僅影響了日系車的本土生產(chǎn),由于零部件的短缺,豐田、本田和日產(chǎn)(Nissan)也紛紛宣布削減在美產(chǎn)量。這會令經(jīng)銷商頭痛不已,并最終殃及消費(fèi)者。據(jù)《美國汽車新聞》(Automotive News)報(bào)導(dǎo):本周,美國最大的經(jīng)銷商集團(tuán)AutoNation預(yù)計(jì)會削減30%-50%的日系汽車的進(jìn)貨。5月份會開始面臨庫存緊縮,日系汽車的缺貨可能會持續(xù)4個(gè)月。從而導(dǎo)致其產(chǎn)量減少、市場價(jià)格抬高。

????美國本土汽車制造商也面臨零部件短缺的問題,因?yàn)橐恍┝悴考枰獜娜毡具M(jìn)口,如微處理器。但總體而言,相比日本他們?nèi)耘f能保有較強(qiáng)的姿態(tài)維持生產(chǎn)。

????由于豐田汽車“召回門”事件的影響,底特律汽車制造商已經(jīng)開始從日本手中奪回一些市場份額。今年一季度,日系車在美國市場的份額由去年同期的39.4%跌至今年的38.8%。底特律車系在美國市場份額上升了0.2%, 從而達(dá)到44%的市場占有率 [韓國的現(xiàn)代(Hyundai)和起亞(Kia)占據(jù)了其余的市場份額]。

????發(fā)跡于別人公司——或是別的國家——的不幸遭遇也許不會使你成為奧普拉脫口秀節(jié)目的座上賓。但是從積極的角度來考慮,這不啻為一次難得的機(jī)會——不利用來發(fā)揮自己的最大潛力實(shí)屬可惜。

????曾幾何時(shí),銷售商擔(dān)心美國國產(chǎn)車永遠(yuǎn)不會贏得嬰兒潮一代的青睞,因?yàn)樗鼈儚膩頉]有機(jī)會一展風(fēng)采?,F(xiàn)在扭轉(zhuǎn)乾坤的歷史時(shí)刻到了,機(jī)不可失,時(shí)不再來。

????The retreat by the Detroit Three in the face of smaller, smarter, fitter cars by Toyota, Honda, and company is a 50-year phenomenon. In that time, Japanese automakers have bucked trade restrictions, an overvalued currency, and "Buy America" sentiments to capture more than one-third of the U.S. car market.

????Now, a tipping point has arrived. U.S. automakers have their best opportunity in two generations to hold the Japanese off and push them back.

????An improbable series of events has tilted the table in the Americans' favor: long-term product trends, short-term currency fluctuations, and, tragically, a string of supply disruptions brought on by March's earthquake.

????To start with, Detroit is finally positioned to head off Japanese gains that traditionally accompany rising gasoline prices.

????In past times like 1974 and 1980 when oil prices spiked -- and even as recently as 2008 -- the Japanese have been able to capitalize because they had a ready supply of capable small cars and the U.S. didn't. In the 1970s, the Toyota Corolla and Honda Civic were competing against the likes of the Chevy Vega and Ford Pinto; in 2008, the Toyota Prius became the car of choice for coping with $4 per gallon gasoline.

????Not in 2011. General Motors already has found more than 50,000 customers for the compact Chevy Cruze; meanwhile the subcompact Sonic and even smaller Spark are due to arrive later this year. Ford (F, Fortune 500) sold 17,178 old and new Focuses and 9,787 Fiestas in March -- compacts and subcompacts representing one-third of its car lineup. And Chrysler managed to sell exactly 500 Fiat 500s during its first month of availability -- not a huge number to be sure but enough to avoid a shutout in the small car game.

????One high m.p.g. segment where Detroit still lags is alternative fuel vehicles. Toyota (TM) sold an astounding 18,605 Prius gas-electric hybrids in March, continuing to lead a segment that it has dominated for more than a decade. By comparison, GM (GM) was able to move just 608 copies of the Chevy Volt, with its complex gasoline-assisted electric powertrain, during its second full month on the market.

????Flush with revenue-generating small cars, Detroit's next big opportunity stems from Japan's rising cost of doing business because of the strong yen. During the halcyon years of Japanese expansion in the 1970s, the yen sometimes traded as low as 300 to the dollar. It gradually strengthened over the years but was still trading around 120 in the mid-2000s. Former GM CEO Rick Wagoner complained frequently that the Japanese government unfairly kept the yen artificially low to give automakers a competitive advantage. The Japanese never conceded the point: Wagoner, of course, is gone.

????The yen has continued to strengthen, and in the wake of the disastrous Japanese earthquake last month, it climbed to its highest level ever: 76.53. It seems counter-intuitive that a natural disaster would bolster the yen, but traders explain that the Japanese were expected to buy back their home currency to fund the country's reconstruction.

????The yen has since weakened to 84 to the dollar. But that still exacts a heavy toll on automakers, one-third of whose sales come from cars built in their home country and exported to the U.S., as well as parts manufacturers. Besides pushing up their cost of doing business, it reduces their revenue from U.S. sales when the dollars come home and are converted back to yen.

????But the shelter provided by the strong yen won't last forever as automakers accelerate their hedging strategies. Toyota, for instance, has long stated its intention to move Prius production to the U.S. So Detroit, which has made great progress in reducing its cost disadvantage with Japan, needs to continue to move quickly down that path.

????Finally, Detroit can use the next several months to introduce itself to American buyers who would ordinarily shop Japanese brands but are turned away because earthquake-caused supply shortages make the cars too expensive or simply unavailable.

????The shortages don't only affect cars made in Japan. Toyota, Honda, and Nissan all say they are going to curtail U.S. production because of a shortage of parts. That's going to cause pain for dealers, and, eventually customers. Automotive News reports this week that AutoNation (AN, Fortune 500), the nation's largest dealership group, expects a 30% to 50% reduction in shipments of some Japanese brands. It is planning for inventory disruptions to hit in May and says they could continue for four months. That will drive up prices as well as reduce availability.

????Domestic automakers will face their own shortages of parts sourced from Japan like microprocessors but overall are in a much stronger position to maintain production.

????Detroit had already begun to claw back some market share from Japan because of Toyota's recall problems. Japan's share of the U.S. auto market fell from 39.4% a year ago to 38.8% in the first three months of the year. Detroit picked up two-tenths of a percent, expanding to 44% (Hyundai and Kia gobbled up the rest).

????Prospering from another company's -- or country's - misfortunes probably won't get you a guest shot on Oprah. To cast it in less negative terms, it is better to think of this as taking advantage of a rare opportunity -- and it is too good a one not to lever to its maximum potential.

????For years, marketers have worried that Baby Boomers would be permanently lost as customers for domestic cars because they had never been exposed to them. Now they have an historic chance to reverse that -- and they have never been in a better position to do so.




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@關(guān)子臨: 自信也許會壓倒聰明,演技的好壞也許會壓倒腦力的強(qiáng)弱,好領(lǐng)導(dǎo)就是循循善誘的人,不獨(dú)裁,而有見地,能讓人心悅誠服。    參加討論>>
@DuoDuopa:彼得原理,是美國學(xué)者勞倫斯彼得在對組織中人員晉升的相關(guān)現(xiàn)象研究后得出的一個(gè)結(jié)論:在各種組織中,由于習(xí)慣于對在某個(gè)等級上稱職的人員進(jìn)行晉升提拔,因而雇員總是趨向于晉升到其不稱職的地位。    參加討論>>
@Bruce的森林:正念,應(yīng)該可以解釋為專注當(dāng)下的事情,而不去想過去這件事是怎么做的,這件事將來會怎樣。一方面,這種理念可以幫助員工排除雜念,把注意力集中在工作本身,減少壓力,提高創(chuàng)造力。另一方面,這不失為提高員工工作效率的好方法??赡芎笳呤歉鞔驜OSS們更看重的吧。    參加討論>>


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