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美國債務上限調整之爭將加劇市場震蕩
 作者: Darius Dale    時間: 2011年06月07日    來源: 財富中文網
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第112屆美國國會是對全球金融市場穩(wěn)定的最大威脅之一。圍繞美國舉債上限調或不調的政治紛爭將加劇美元和金融市場的震蕩。
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????周三美國眾議院就是否上調美國舉債上限進行投票表決(毫無意外,結果是響亮的“不”),我們認為應借此機會,對未來幾個月可能的事態(tài)進展作一深入分析,即全球匯市、債市和股市的波動性可能加劇。即便6月份美聯(lián)儲(Federal Reserve)的美國國債購買計劃(二次量化寬松政策)到期,華盛頓一些雄心勃勃的政客們所發(fā)出的奇談怪論可能會繼續(xù)左右宏觀市場。

????總之,雖然我們認同普遍的觀點,相信美國舉債上限最終會上調以避免美國政府一方有任何形式的債務違約行為,但我們也深知無論最終通過何種形式的方案都必將經歷諸多風波和論戰(zhàn),而絕不會是“一帆風順”。因此,我們已做好準備在未來幾個月迎接更大的震蕩。

????With yesterday's House vote on raising the debt ceiling (unsurprisingly, a resounding 'no'), we thought we'd use this opportunity to equip you with an in-depth guide for navigating the next few months of what is likely to be heightened volatility for global currency, bond, and equity markets. Even as the Federal Reserve's bond purchasing program (QE2) expires in June, macro markets are likely to continue to gyrate on the whims and words of a few "inspired" politicians within our nation's capital.

????In short, while we accept the consensus belief that the debt ceiling will eventually be extended prior to any sort of default on the US government's obligations, we do believe the events and rhetoric leading up to the passage of any deal will be anything but "smooth sailing." As such, we're preparing for heighted volatility in the months ahead.

????無債可舉:美國國會在1917年的Second Liberty Bond法案中首次設置了法定聯(lián)邦舉債上限,這是多方協(xié)商的結果,既解決了一戰(zhàn)融資問題,又加強了對執(zhí)行部門/執(zhí)政黨動財政權的限制。雖然聯(lián)邦舉債分為公眾所持債務和政府內部債務,但幾乎所有債務都受舉債上限的制約。設置舉債上限的初衷是為了創(chuàng)造機會,以便隨時重新評估美國財政政策的方向。但是這一機制同樣存在局限性,因為不上調債務上限的后果幾乎總是比上調的后果更為嚴重,從決策角度看,上限機制相當缺乏實效。

????美國財政部長蒂姆?蓋特納已表示,美國政府將于8月2日觸及舉債上限。之后,如果不上調舉債上限或不通過某種形式的臨時立法,使新債發(fā)行暫免于計入法定舉債上限,美國政府將出現(xiàn)債務違約行為。蓋特納在致美國國會的信中明確指出,他認為任何形式的美國政府債務拖欠行為(不僅僅是美國國債的本金和利息償付)都將損害美國的信譽。

????雖然我們常常不能茍同蓋特納的觀點,但在這一原則上我們確實有共同的立場,我們相信絕大多數(shù)美國人也都會認同。如果不及時上調舉債上限,下列聯(lián)邦政府債務的履行將首當其沖:

????? 美國的軍餉和退休金;

????? 社保金和聯(lián)邦醫(yī)療保險金;

????? 退伍軍人津貼;

????? 聯(lián)邦公務員工資和退休金;

????? 個人和企業(yè)退稅;

????? 各州的失業(yè)金;

????? 應向國防供應商支付的款項;

????? 學生貸款支付;

????? 各州的醫(yī)療補助金;以及

????? 聯(lián)邦政府設施的日常運營費用。

????僅這份清單所呈現(xiàn)的影響范圍之廣,就足以使我們確信美國國會最終將會永久性上調舉債上限,或暫時擱置立法爭議,至少臨時性上調舉債上限,以滿足2011財年或日歷年余下時間的借款需求。當然,正如人生中很多目的地一樣,過程才是最重要的。有鑒于此,我們將對未來的道路作一展望。

????政治攸關:1960年以來,美國國會已通過立法,共78次(永久性或臨時性)上調舉債上限或修改舉債上限定義——其中49次是在共和黨總統(tǒng)執(zhí)政時期,29次是在民主黨總統(tǒng)執(zhí)政時期。因此,雖然表面上看觸及債務上限似乎是件大事,但事實上,歷史上上調債務上限的先例并不鮮見。

????但從目前國會山反映出來的政治姿態(tài)和黨派之爭來看,我們預計這一次可能需要費些周折——特別是在博納、瑞德等人物的領導下??梢灶A見,未來幾個月鋪天蓋地的重磅觀點、政治表態(tài)、邊緣政策和重重顧慮將引發(fā)全球金融市場的震蕩。正如我們在今年年初所指,第112屆美國國會是對全球金融穩(wěn)定的最大威脅之一。今夏,他們的所作所為將證實我們的判斷。

????今春早些時候美國政府差點關門一事告訴我們,為了推進其政治目標,任何一方都不懼將我們推到混亂的邊緣。

????總而言之,兩黨對于怎樣才能于8月初前上調舉債上限有很大的分歧,近期議員們的言論正體現(xiàn)了這一點。顯然在上調舉債上限的立法過程中將包含一定的財政改革(利多美元),但同樣明確的是:a) 這不會讓共和黨人滿意(利空美元),因為民主黨人會堅持己見,推動邊緣政策(證據(jù)之一就是共和黨領袖已撤回了近期對保羅?瑞恩聯(lián)邦醫(yī)療保險改革計劃的支持);而且b):隨著政治邊緣政策把我們逐步推近最后期限,煽動恐慌的言論很可能將有所增加,導致全球金融市場恐慌情緒的蔓延。

????因此,我們預計金融市場的震蕩將全面加劇,因為各項資產類別間的關聯(lián)風險已然升高。圍繞美元的拉鋸戰(zhàn)是一大風險,需要妥善應對,而行動的時機尤其關鍵。

????簡言之,劇情將這樣展開:共和黨讓步 = 美元下跌;民主黨讓步 = 美元上漲。未來幾個月的棋局將變得更具挑戰(zhàn)性。

歷史性僵局

????沒錯,我們以前也曾經處于這樣的境地。下面將簡要回顧一下歷史上的舉債上限僵局以及最終調高舉債上限前的幾個月里主要金融市場的表現(xiàn)。這絕非是試圖預測未來幾個月可能的事態(tài)發(fā)展;正如歷史不會重演一樣,任何兩個債務周期都不會彼此雷同。在分析此次金融市場將如何反應時,下文所示圖例僅作參考。

????1985年:1985年9月,由于聯(lián)邦負債已觸及法定上限,美國財政部已無法再發(fā)行新的證券。因此,它不得不采取類似于前述策略的“臨時性措施”。1985年11月14日債務上限臨時上調,1985年12月12日債務上限從1.82萬億美元永久性上調至2.08萬億美元。此外,配套立法授權美國財政部可在未來陷入舉債上限僵局時宣布進入“債券發(fā)行暫停期”。

????Hitting the Ceiling:Congress created the statutory federal debt limit in the Second Liberty Bond Act of 1917 as a result of negotiations which resulted in securing financing for WWI and creating an additional check on the fiscal power of the executive branch/ruling party. While federal debt is appropriately divided between debt held by the public and intra-governmental debt, nearly all of it is subject to the limit. The powers that be at the time of creation appropriately intended the debt ceiling to be a reoccurring opportunity to reassess the direction of the U.S.'s fiscal policy. It is, however, not without limitations, as the current consequences of not increasing the debt ceiling almost always outweigh the current consequences of extending it, making it quite toothless from a policy-making point of view.

????Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner has said the government will reach its debt limit on August 2. After that, the U.S. government will begin to default on its obligations absent an increase in the debt ceiling or some form of temporary legislation exempting new issuance from being counted towards the statuary debt limit. What is being made clear by Geithner's letters to Congress is that he considers any failure to pay any of the U.S. government's obligations (not just interest payments and principal redemptions on Treasury securities) as a detriment to the full faith and credit backing America's handshake.

????While we don't often agree with the man, we do find common ground on this principle and we believe the vast majority of Americans would agree. Below is a list of federal government liabilities that would be directly impacted should the debt ceiling not get raised in time:

????? US military salaries and retirement benefits;

????? Social Security and Medicare benefits;

????? Veteran's benefits;

????? Federal civil service salaries and retirement benefits;

????? Individual and corporate tax refunds;

????? Unemployment benefits to States;

????? Defense vendor payments;

????? Student loan payments;

????? Medicaid payments to States; and

????? General operational expenses for federal government facilities.

????The sheer breadth of this list alone gives us conviction that Congress will ultimately enact a permanent increase in the debt ceiling or at least kick the can down the road by temporarily upping the limit to accommodate borrowing needs through the either the remainder of the fiscal or calendar year 2011. Of course, as with all of life's many destinations, it's the journey there that matters most. Given that, we offer a guide for the road ahead.

????Political Stakes: Since 1960, Congress has passed legislation that increased (permanently or temporarily) or revised the definition of the debt ceiling 78 times – 49 times under Republican presidents and 29 times under Democratic presidents. So while it may seem like reaching the debt ceiling is a big deal at face value, in reality, increasing the debt limit is quite a common occurrence.

????Judging by the political posturing and partisan rhetoric being thrown around Capitol Hill currently, however, we expect this round of piling debt upon debt to be anything but commonplace – especially with characters like Boehner and Reid leading the charge. The next few months will be full of enough headline-worthy news quotes, political posturing, brinksmanship, and enough fear mongering to rattle global financial markets. As we outlined at the beginning of the year, the 112th Congress is among the greatest risks to global financial stability. This summer we expect them to prove us right in spades.

????If we've learned anything from the near government shut down earlier this spring, it's that neither side is afraid to send us to the edge of chaos in order to advance their political agenda.

????All in all, the gaping divide between the two ideologies on what it would take to collectively lift the debt ceiling by early August is omnipresent in their recent commentary. While it's clear that some fiscal reform will be included in any legislation towards increasing the debt ceiling (U.S. dollar bullish), it's almost equally as clear that: a) it will fall short of current Republican demands (U.S. dollar bearish) because the Democrats are, on the margin, willing to stand their ground and engage in this game of political brinksmanship (evidenced by GOP leaders backing away from their recent support of Paul Ryan's Medicare reform plan); and b) as political brinksmanship inches us closer to the deadline, we are likely to see a measured increase in fear-mongering quotes that are likely to be the source of much consternation for global financial markets.

????As such, we anticipate a broad-based pickup in volatility, given the heighted correlation risk we've seen across all asset classes to date. This tug-of-war on the U.S. dollar is an acute risk that needs to be managed around, particularly from a timing perspective.

????In short, the playbook is as follows: Republican compromise = dollar down; Democrat compromise = Dollar up. Gaming policy is about to get a little more challenging in the coming months.

Historic Impasses

????We've been here before, of course. Below we briefly touch upon prior debt limit impasses and how key financial markets fared in the months leading up to and just beyond the eventual increases. These are not at all an attempt to forecast what might happen in the coming months; like history itself, no two debt ceiling periods are alike. Rather, the illustrations below are merely points of reference for pondering how the markets will react this time around.

????1985: In September of 1985, the Treasury Department became unable to issue new securities as a result of the statutory limit on federal debt being reached. As such, it was forced to take "extraordinary measures" consisting of and similar to the maneuvers listed in the section above. The debt limit was temporarily increased on November 14, 1985 and permanently increased on December 12,1985 from $1.82T to $2.08T. In addition, the accompanying legislation granted the Treasury Department authority to declare a "debt issuance suspension period" in future debt limit impasses.

????1995-96年:1995年11月15日,美國財政部首次宣布進入“債券發(fā)行暫停期”,憑借“臨時性措施”挨到了下一年年初。隨后,美國財政部通知國會手頭沒有足夠的現(xiàn)金可支付1996年3月的社保金,對此國會作出的反應是臨時上調舉債上限,上調額度為社保金支付所需資金(290億美元)。在臨時性上調于3月15日即將失效前的一天,美國國會又批準延期兩周至3月30日。而在3月30日的最后期限即將到來前一天,美國國會又通過了一項法案,將舉債上限從4.9萬億美元永久性上調至5.5萬億美元。

????1995-96:On November 15, 1995, the Treasury Department declared the first ever "debt issuance suspension period" and used "extraordinary measures" to finagle its way through the beginning of the next year. It subsequently notified Congress that it did not have enough cash on hand to pay the March 1996 Social Security benefits, at which point Congress responded by temporarily increasing the debt limit in an amount commensurate to the upcoming benefit distribution ($29B). Just one day before the March 15th deadline, Congress acted to extend the temporary increase by two weeks until March 30th. And just one day before that deadline, Congress passed legislation permanently increasing the debt limit to $5.5T from $4.9T.

????2002-03年:這兩年間美國財政部不得不數(shù)次宣布進入“債券發(fā)行暫停期”(2002年4月4日- 2002年4月16日;2002年5月16日- 2002年6月28日;2003年2月20日- 2003年5月27日),并采取“臨時性措施”,平滑現(xiàn)金流,以滿足聯(lián)邦政府履行債務所需。這段時期內,美國國會兩次永久性上調舉債上限;第一次是在2002年6月28日,從5.95萬億美元上調至6.4萬億美元,之后是在2003年5月27日,再次調高至7.38萬億美元。

????2002-03:At several instances during this two year period, the Treasury Department had to declare "debt issuance suspension periods" (April 4, 2002-April 16, 2002; May 16, 2002-June 28, 2002; and February 20, 2003-May 27, 2003) and take "extraordinary measures" to smooth the timing of cash flows in order to meet the federal government's obligations. The debt limit was permanently increased twice during this legislative impasse; first on June 28, 2002 to $6.4T from $5.95T and subsequently on May 27, 2003 to $7.38T.




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@關子臨: 自信也許會壓倒聰明,演技的好壞也許會壓倒腦力的強弱,好領導就是循循善誘的人,不獨裁,而有見地,能讓人心悅誠服。    參加討論>>
@DuoDuopa:彼得原理,是美國學者勞倫斯彼得在對組織中人員晉升的相關現(xiàn)象研究后得出的一個結論:在各種組織中,由于習慣于對在某個等級上稱職的人員進行晉升提拔,因而雇員總是趨向于晉升到其不稱職的地位。    參加討論>>
@Bruce的森林:正念,應該可以解釋為專注當下的事情,而不去想過去這件事是怎么做的,這件事將來會怎樣。一方面,這種理念可以幫助員工排除雜念,把注意力集中在工作本身,減少壓力,提高創(chuàng)造力。另一方面,這不失為提高員工工作效率的好方法。可能后者是各大BOSS們更看重的吧。    參加討論>>


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