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投資高手:恐懼與勇氣僅一線之隔
 作者: Ben Horowitz    時間: 2011年08月09日    來源: 財富中文網(wǎng)
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著名投資人表示,對首席執(zhí)行官來說,正確的決定往往顯而易見,決策失誤所帶來的壓力則可能是難以承受的
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????“如果你是個嚇破膽的孬種,就去教堂吧?!?/p>

????——艾斯?庫伯

????“我告訴孩子們,英雄和懦夫的區(qū)別是什么?膽小如鼠和勇敢無畏的區(qū)別是什么?其實二者沒有區(qū)別。區(qū)別只在于你怎么做。這兩種人的感受是一樣的。他們都怕死,怕受傷。但膽小的人拒絕直面他必須面對的東西。英雄則更為自律,他能打消這些情緒,做他應該做的事。但這兩者,不管是英雄還是懦夫,他們的感受沒有差別。人們是通過你的所作所為而不是你的感受來評判你的?!薄獛焖?德阿馬托,傳奇拳擊教練

????與創(chuàng)業(yè)企業(yè)家們會晤時,我們所看重的兩大關鍵品質分別是才智和勇氣。從我擔任首席執(zhí)行官的切身經(jīng)驗來看,我發(fā)現(xiàn),最重大的決定對勇氣的考驗遠超對才智的考驗。

????正確的決定往往顯而易見,但決策失誤所帶來的壓力則可能是難以承受的。這種壓力往往源于一些小事。

????當創(chuàng)始人們——一位是首席執(zhí)行官,另一位是總裁——來我們公司尋求投資時,我們的對話往往是這樣進行的:

????“你們倆誰掌管這家公司?”

????“我們倆共同掌管,”他們不約而同地回答。

????“最后拿主意的是誰?”

????“我們倆共同決定?!?/p>

????“你們估計這種管理方式延續(xù)多久?”

????“我們希望始終如此?!?/p>

????“那么,你們決意要員工的工作更加棘手,這樣你們就不必決定到底由誰掌舵了,是這樣嗎?”

????這么問的結果往往是對方無言以對。

????理智地看,很顯然,對員工來說,向一個決策者請示要比向兩個請示來得容易。這確實并不是有多復雜的一件事。然而不幸的是,當前清晰可見的社會壓力往往淹沒了正確組織公司所帶來的長期好處。因為創(chuàng)始人們沒有勇氣決定該由誰執(zhí)掌大權,結果員工只得忍受請示雙重批準的麻煩。

????更重要的是,當公司成長起來時,做決定只會變得更讓人膽戰(zhàn)心驚。當我們決定將收入只有200萬美元的Loudcloud公司(Loudcloud,蘋果手機應用及云服務開發(fā)商——譯注)上市時,這在理智上并不是個艱難的決定——大不了備選方案就是破產(chǎn)而已。如果多數(shù)員工、媒體人士以及投資人都不看好時,要做點什么就足以令人膽寒了。

決策正確需要才智與勇氣

????有時候,決策本身就十分復雜,致使勇氣遭遇的挑戰(zhàn)更加艱巨。首席執(zhí)行官擁有的數(shù)據(jù)、知識和視角與公司里任何人都不同。而經(jīng)常會發(fā)生的情況是,某些員工和董事會成員比首席執(zhí)行官更有經(jīng)驗也更聰明。而首席執(zhí)行官能做出更好決策的唯一原因就在于她超凡的見識。

????有時首席執(zhí)行官面臨的抉擇格外困難,因為兩個選擇中,她可能只是對其中一個略有偏向——比如說54%傾向于要砍掉產(chǎn)品線,46%傾向于要保留它,此時事情會更難辦。如果董事會和員工隊伍中那些真正聰明的人意見和她相左,那她的勇氣就會受到嚴峻的考驗。當每個人都反對她,以致她都無法確定自己是否做出了正確決定的情況下,她又怎么能砍掉產(chǎn)品線呢?如果她錯了,那就意味著她無視自己最好的參謀所提供的建議。而如果她對了,又有誰會知道呢?

????最近,一家大公司愿意出價收購我們投資的一家公司。鑒于這家公司截至目前的發(fā)展狀況和收入水平,這個交易的金額很誘人,也讓人很有興趣。該公司的創(chuàng)始人兼首席執(zhí)行官(我在此稱他為哈姆雷特——并非其真名)認為,考慮到公司目前正在開發(fā)的巨大的市場機會,出售公司并不明智,但他仍希望確保自己的抉擇對投資人和員工來說最有利。哈姆雷特想過拒絕這一收購要約,但意愿并不強烈。復雜是,管理團隊和董事會的大部分人跟他的想法完全相反。董事會成員和管理團隊比哈姆雷特經(jīng)驗更老道這一點于事無補。結果,哈姆雷特因為對自己的觀點是否正確憂心忡忡而度過了許多不眠之夜。更糟糕的是,他意識到不可能判斷自己到底是否正確。這一認識無助于他緩解失眠。最后,哈姆雷特做出了個人認為是最佳,同時也是最需要勇氣的決定:不出售公司。我相信,這會是他職業(yè)生涯中具有決定性意義的時刻。

????有趣的是,哈姆雷特剛剛做出這個決定,整個董事會和管理團隊就立刻表示擁護。這是為什么?如果他們本來是非常希望出售公司,還要勸首席執(zhí)行官放棄夢想的,他們怎么能這么快就來個180度大轉彎呢?原來,導致他們最初有意出售公司最重要的信息正是哈姆雷特一開始的舉棋不定——以至于整個團隊認為他們是在支持首席執(zhí)行官心中的決定。哈姆雷特對此毫無意識,反而認為他們要出售公司的想法是他們深思熟慮的結果。所幸哈姆雷特有勇氣最終做出了正確的決定。

????常見問題如下圖社會信用矩陣所示。在群體的影響下做出的決策所帶來的預期社會回報要比自行決策的回報要好:

????"If you a scared mutherfucker, go to church."

????- Ice Cube

????"I tell my kids, what is the difference between a hero and a coward? What is the difference between being yellow and being brave? No difference. Only what you do. They both feel the same. They both fear dying and getting hurt. The man who is yellow refuses to face up to what he's got to face. The hero is more disciplined and he fights those feelings off and he does what he has to do. But they both feel the same, the hero and the coward. People who watch you judge you on what you do, not how you feel."

????- Cus D'Amato, legendary boxing trainer

????When we meet with entrepreneurs, the two key characteristics that we look for are brilliance and courage. In my experience as CEO, I found that the most important decisions tested my courage far more than my intelligence.

????The right decision is often obvious, but the pressure to make the wrong decision can be overwhelming. It starts with small things.

????When founders come in to pitch our firm -- one as the CEO and the other as President – the conversation often goes like this:

????"Who is running the company?"

????"We are," they both say.

????"Who makes the final decision?"

????"We do."

????"How long do you expect to run that way?"

????"Forever."

????"So you've decided to make it more difficult for every employee to get work done so that you don't have to decide who is in charge, is that right?"

????That usually results in silence.

????Intellectually, it should be clear that it is easier for employees to go to one decision maker than two. It's not really very complicated at all. Unfortunately, the clear and present social pressure often overwhelms the long-term benefits of organizing the company properly. Because the founders do not have the courage to decide who is in charge, every employee suffers the inconvenience of double approval.

????More importantly, decisions only get scarier as a company grows. When we decided to take Loudcloud public with only $2 million in revenue, it was not a hard choice intellectually -- the alternative was to go bankrupt. It was nonetheless terrifying to do something that most employees, everyone in the press, and many investors thought was nuts.

When Making the Right Choice Requires Intelligence and Courage

????Sometimes the decision itself is rather complicated which makes the courage challenge even more difficult. CEOs possess a different set of data, knowledge and perspective than anybody else in the company. Frequently, some of the employees and board members are more experienced and more intelligent than the CEO. The only reason the CEO can make a better decision is her superior knowledge.

????To make matters worse, when a CEO faces a particularly difficult decision, she may have only a slight preference for one choice over another -- say 54% kill a product line, 46% keep it. If the really smart people on the board and on her staff take the other side, her courage will be severely tested. How can she kill the product when she is not even sure if the she is making the right decision and everyone is against her? If she's wrong, she will have been wrong in the face of advice from her top advisors. If she is right, will anybody even know?

????Recently, a large company offered to buy one of our portfolio companies. The deal was lucrative and compelling given the portfolio company's progress to date and revenue level. The Founder/CEO (I'll call him Hamlet – not his real name) thought that selling did not make sense due to the giant market opportunity that he was pursuing, but still wanted to make sure that he made the best possible choice for investors and employees. Hamlet wanted to reject the offer, but only marginally. To complicate matters, most of the management team and the board thought the opposite. It did not help that the board and the management team were far more experienced than Hamlet. As a result, Hamlet spent many sleepless nights worrying about whether or not he was right. To make matters worse, he realized that it was impossible to know whether or not he was right. This did not help his sleep. In the end, Hamlet made the best and most courageous decision that he could and did not sell the company. I believe that will prove to be the defining moment of his career.

????Interestingly, as soon as Hamlet made the decision, the entire board and executive team immediately embraced the choice. Why? If they wanted to sell the company enough to advise the CEO to give up his dream, how could they reverse themselves so quickly? It turns out that the most important data point driving their earlier preference for selling the company was Hamlet's initial ambivalence – the team supported the decision they thought the CEO wanted. Hamlet did not realize this and interpreted their desire to sell to be the result of a thorough analysis. Luckily for everybody involved, he had the courage to make the right decision.

????The general problem can be seen in the social credit matrix described below. The expected social rewards for making the crowd-influenced decision appear better than those for making the decision that you think is right:

?

你是正確的

你是錯誤的

你做出與群體相左的決策

少有人會記得是你做的決定,但公司取得了成功

每個人都記得這一決定,你被降級,受到排擠甚至被解雇

你做出與群體一致的決策

每個向你提建議的人都記得這一決定,公司取得成功

因為這一錯誤決定,你只受到最低限度的責難,而公司則蒙受損失

????從表面上看,似乎如果所作決定僥幸成功了,那么隨大流要安全得多。實際上,如果你掉進這個陷阱,群體就會影響你的思考,并使70%對30%的決定顯得像是個51%對49%的決定。這就是為什么勇氣至關重要。

勇氣如性格,培養(yǎng)可得之

????“每個拳手都會感到害怕。如果一個孩子走到我跟前,跟我說他不害怕,如果我信了他,我得說他要么是在撒謊,要么是腦子有毛病。我會送他去看醫(yī)生,看看他到底哪兒出了問題,因為這不是正常的反應。走上拳臺卻從未感到害怕的拳手要么是個騙子,要么就是個精神病?!?/p>

????——庫斯?德阿馬托

????在經(jīng)營Loudcloud公司和Opsware公司(Opsware,服務器及網(wǎng)絡服務供應商——譯注)的過程中我所做的所有艱難決策里,我沒有一次是大膽無畏的。實際上,我常常怕得要死。這種感覺從未消失過,不過,經(jīng)過多次練習后,我學會了忽略它。這一學習過程也許可以叫做培養(yǎng)勇氣的過程。

????在日常生活中,每個人都要面臨抉擇:是做普遍認可的、容易的但也是錯誤的事情,還是做特立獨行、困難但也是正確的事情。經(jīng)營公司時,這些決定的強度會大大加劇,因為其結果往往會放大上千倍。和生活中的情形一樣,首席執(zhí)行官決策失誤時的托辭也是數(shù)不勝數(shù)。

????On the surface, it appears that if the decision is a close call, it's much safer to go with the crowd. In reality, if you fall into this trap, the crowd will influence your thinking and make a 70/30 decision seem like a 51/49 decision. This is why courage is critical.

Courage, Like Character, Can Be Developed

????"Every fighter that ever lived had fear. A boy comes to me and tells me that he's not afraid, if I believed him I'd say he's a liar or there's something wrong with him. I'd send him to a doctor to find out what the hell's the matter with him, because this is not a normal reaction. The fighter that's gone into the ring and hasn't experienced fear is either a liar or a psychopath…"

????-Cus D'Amato

????In all the difficult decisions that I made through the course of running Loudcloud and Opsware, I never once felt brave. In fact, I often felt scared to death. I never lost those feelings, but after much practice, I learned to ignore them. That learning process might also be called the courage development process.

????In life, everybody faces choices between doing what's popular, easy, and wrong vs. doing what's lonely, difficult, and right. These decisions intensify when you run a company, because the consequences get magnified 1,000 fold. As in life, the excuses for CEO's making the wrong choice are always plentiful.

生活中的借口

首席執(zhí)行官的借口

其他聰明人也犯同樣的錯

這就是個僥幸事件

我的朋友都想這么做

團隊反對我,所以我不能跟團隊作對

有個性的孩子都在這么做

這是行業(yè)最佳做法,我沒意識到這是違法的

我做得還不夠好,所以我決定不去爭取了

我們從未實現(xiàn)過完全的產(chǎn)品-市場匹配,所以我們從未試過銷售產(chǎn)品

????每次做出艱難但正確的決定時,人就變得更有勇氣一些,而每次做出容易卻是錯誤的決定時,人就變得更怯懦些。如果你是首席執(zhí)行官,這些決定就將導致你的公司變得富有勇氣還是畏縮怯懦。

????文末遐思

????過去10年中,技術進步大大降低了創(chuàng)業(yè)的金融門檻,但是,打造一家偉大公司必須跨越的勇氣門檻卻從未降低過。

????——本?霍洛維茨是風險投資公司Andreessen Horowitz公司的聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人和一般合伙人。該公司通過天使投資和大規(guī)模融資支持今天的技術導向型公司的各種需求。本現(xiàn)在是Okta, Nicira, Proferi 和Skype等多家科技公司的董事會成員。

????譯者:清遠

????Every time you make the hard, correct decision you become a bit more courageous and every time you make the easy, wrong decision you become a bit more cowardly. If you are CEO, these choices will lead to a courageous or cowardly company.

One Last Thought

????Over the past 10 years, technological advances dramatically lowered the financial bar for starting a new company, but the courage bar for building a great company remains as high as it has ever been.

????-- Ben Horowitz is co-founder and general partner of Andreessen Horowitz, a venture capital firm created to support the needs of today's technology-focused entrepreneurs through angel investments to large-scale funding. Ben currently serves on the board of Okta, Nicira, Proferi and Skype.




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最佳評論

@關子臨: 自信也許會壓倒聰明,演技的好壞也許會壓倒腦力的強弱,好領導就是循循善誘的人,不獨裁,而有見地,能讓人心悅誠服。    參加討論>>
@DuoDuopa:彼得原理,是美國學者勞倫斯彼得在對組織中人員晉升的相關現(xiàn)象研究后得出的一個結論:在各種組織中,由于習慣于對在某個等級上稱職的人員進行晉升提拔,因而雇員總是趨向于晉升到其不稱職的地位。    參加討論>>
@Bruce的森林:正念,應該可以解釋為專注當下的事情,而不去想過去這件事是怎么做的,這件事將來會怎樣。一方面,這種理念可以幫助員工排除雜念,把注意力集中在工作本身,減少壓力,提高創(chuàng)造力。另一方面,這不失為提高員工工作效率的好方法。可能后者是各大BOSS們更看重的吧。    參加討論>>


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