腦力風(fēng)暴
????上個(gè)月在阿斯彭召開(kāi)的年度《財(cái)富》科技頭腦風(fēng)暴大會(huì)（Fortune Brainstorm Tech conference）上，４００多位企業(yè)家和高官濟(jì)濟(jì)一堂，討論科技給我們的生活、通訊和娛樂(lè)消費(fèi)方式帶來(lái)的改變。在這種場(chǎng)合下，一定會(huì)聽(tīng)到很多人談及職業(yè)社交網(wǎng)站LinkedIn、Facebook、Twitter和Spotify等公司的繁榮——Spotify是一家剛剛登錄美國(guó)的在線音樂(lè)服務(wù)公司。但是這種繁榮是否已經(jīng)快到了不合理的范疇？尤其是考慮到這些公司的估值。不過(guò)看起來(lái)人們對(duì)這個(gè)問(wèn)題的一般看法是：“那得看是誰(shuí)了?！备ヌm克?夸特隆是一名經(jīng)驗(yàn)老道的科技銀行家，他并不認(rèn)為科技界將面臨大范圍的泡沫。不過(guò)有些私人公司掙到了太多的錢(qián)，這讓他隱隱感到不安。就連一向以心直口快聞名的前財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)拉里?薩默斯在這個(gè)問(wèn)題上也表示出了模楞兩可的態(tài)度。他指出，與工業(yè)股票相比，科技公司的市值還是很低的。而且科技公司的潛在商機(jī)非常大，因?yàn)槿澜绮畈欢嘤?0億互聯(lián)網(wǎng)用戶(hù)和20億移動(dòng)電話用戶(hù)。薩默森先是問(wèn)道：“回頭看看歷史，誰(shuí)能拍著胸脯說(shuō)現(xiàn)在肯定沒(méi)有泡沫？”不過(guò)他補(bǔ)充道：“但那些表示肯定有泡沫的人，他們肯定沒(méi)有注意到我剛才說(shuō)的那幾點(diǎn)事實(shí)。”您站在哪一邊？在您下決定之前，不妨先回顧一下我們對(duì)本次科技頭腦風(fēng)暴大會(huì)的報(bào)道。
????——斯特凡妮?梅赫塔 |
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Brain Power
????When you assemble more than 400 executives and entrepreneurs to discuss how technology is changing the way we work, communicate, and consume entertainment -- as Fortune did for its annual Brainstorm Tech conference in Aspen last month -- you're sure to hear a lot of exuberance for companies such as LinkedIn, Facebook, Twitter, and Spotify, the music service that just launched in the U.S. But is that exuberance verging on irrational, especially where valuations are concerned? The consensus seems to be: "It depends." Frank Quattrone, the veteran tech banker, demurs on the question of a broader bubble but says he frets about the premiums some private companies are commanding. Even Larry Summers, the usually blunt former U.S. Treasury Secretary, is equivocal on the matter. He notes that the value of tech companies relative to industrials is quite low. Yet the potential market opportunity for tech -- some 2 billion Internet users and 2 billion mobile phones worldwide -- is huge. "Who can look at history and be confident that things aren't a bubble?" he asks. But, he adds, "those who are confident that it is a bubble don't seem to me to have looked at some of the kinds of facts that I just cited." What side are you on? Check out our coverage of Brainstorm Tech before you make up your mind.
????--Stephanie N. Mehta |
