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IPO一席談:半途而廢乃上市大忌
 作者: Bill Gurley    時(shí)間: 2011年09月20日    來源: 財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)
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IPO可在一家公司的成長中發(fā)揮關(guān)鍵作用,但半途而廢恐怕沒好處。
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????我一貫堅(jiān)信首次公開募股(IPO)能夠在一家公司的成長中扮演關(guān)鍵角色。此外,我曾指出,我們的硅谷生態(tài)系統(tǒng)中有許多公司過于擔(dān)心公開上市的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和負(fù)面后果,以至于產(chǎn)生了一種不健康的焦慮感。最后,我多次強(qiáng)調(diào),對(duì)偉大的公司來說,上市窗口總是敞開的——這一點(diǎn)我至今仍深信不疑。我的苦口婆心顯然沒什么用——最近出現(xiàn)了一種令我頗為驚訝的趨勢(shì):許多公司提交申請(qǐng)后又選擇延期上市。如果已經(jīng)決定提交S-1上市登記表,那就必須做好堅(jiān)持到底的準(zhǔn)備,否則貴公司將長期處于財(cái)務(wù)上的兩難境地,仿佛在冥河斯堤克斯(River Styx)上進(jìn)退不得,由此可能造成嚴(yán)重后果。

????為什么推遲上市不是什么好壞事?一家公司提交上市申請(qǐng)后,若遲遲不確定發(fā)行價(jià),那它將日益遭到質(zhì)疑——該公司是不是沒法繼續(xù)推進(jìn)上市程序了?這是“為什么”?難道他們已經(jīng)無法實(shí)現(xiàn)預(yù)期業(yè)績(jī)了?他們打退堂鼓了嗎?他們還沒準(zhǔn)備好?難道投資者看不上這家公司?投行是否已失去了對(duì)該公司的信任?

????員工們也可能因同樣的理由而心生疑竇,而(作為公司高管),你正處于靜默期,很難通過媒體來回應(yīng)這些憂慮。如果你更進(jìn)一步,“撤回”上市申請(qǐng),那人們可能認(rèn)為投資貴公司是“失敗的”,甚至認(rèn)為這就是家“失敗的”公司,潛在的收購者肯定會(huì)這么看待的。在硅谷,這類問題可能尤為嚴(yán)重,因?yàn)檫@兒爭(zhēng)奪人才的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)非常激烈。最后,如果提交上市申請(qǐng)而又不定價(jià),那就相當(dāng)于放棄了所有作為非上市企業(yè)的好處,而又沒能獲得任何上市的收益:因?yàn)楣镜霉即罅控?cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù),但什么好處都沒能換來。

????很多事情都可能導(dǎo)致提交上市申請(qǐng)后又延期,最常見的原因是美國證券交易委員會(huì)(SEC)意外提出質(zhì)疑,迫使企業(yè)反復(fù)修改后重交申請(qǐng);如果SEC要求審計(jì)人員重新審視他們?cè)鹊募俣ǎ绕淙菀装l(fā)生這種情況。此外,如股市整體走勢(shì)疲軟,市場(chǎng)信心大受影響,投資者和銀行家們都可能因此“臨陣腿軟”。估值和股權(quán)攤薄問題也經(jīng)常令人擔(dān)憂,如果市場(chǎng)形勢(shì)表明貴公司的發(fā)行價(jià)無法令人滿意,比所聘投行在提交上市申請(qǐng)之日估計(jì)的數(shù)字低了30%,那你可能不愿過分?jǐn)偙」蓹?quán)。最后,可能真的沒有那么多人感興趣,想發(fā)行的股票賣不出去——那可真是極為尷尬的處境。

????I am a big believer that the IPO can play a key role in the development of a company's life. Moreover, I have argued that many in our ecosystem have an unhealthy anxiety regarding the dangers and consequences of being public. Lastly, I have argued that the IPO window is wide open for great companies – something I still believe today. All of that said, I have been quite surprised by the recent trend in companies that file and then chose to delay. If you are going to file the S-1, it is imperative that you are prepared to follow through. Standing too long in the middle of the financial equivalent of the River Styx can have severe consequences.

????Why is this a bad thing? The longer a company remains on file without pricing, the more questions arise about "why" the company may be struggling to move forward. Did they miss their numbers already? Are they having cold-feet? Are they not ready? Do investors not like the company? Have the bankers lost their belief in the company?

????Employees may begin to wonder the same thing. As you are in a quiet period, it may be difficult for you to respond to concerns through the press. If you then take the added step and "pull" your IPO, you now risk being considered a "broken" deal and potentially a "broken" company. Potential acquirers will certainly see it that way. These problems can be especially acute in Silicon Valley, where competition for talent is intense. Lastly, to file and not price is to give up all the benefits of being private with none of the gains of being public. You have been exposed, but you have nothing to show for it.

????There are many things that can cause delays in filed IPOs. The most common factor is unexpected questions from the SEC that cause iteration and re-filing. This is especially true of the SEC questions that require the auditors to revisit their original assumptions. Shaky investor sentiment as a result of a weak broader stock market can cause both investors and bankers to have "cold feet." There may also be concerns with valuation and dilution. If your company looks like it is going to price at a 30% discount to what your bankers conveyed on filing date, you may not want to suffer unexpected dilution. Lastly, there may simply not be enough demand for your IPO – which is an amazingly tough position for your company.

????上表所示為最近上市的一些公司,從提交申請(qǐng)到確定發(fā)行價(jià)之間的期限,以及社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)游戲Zynga公司、團(tuán)購網(wǎng)站Groupon和旅游搜索引擎Kayak公司提交上市申請(qǐng)后迄今已經(jīng)流逝的時(shí)間。表中四家已上市公司“申請(qǐng)-定價(jià)期間”平均略超100天。標(biāo)桿資本(Benchmark Capital)有幸投資了其中兩家(房地產(chǎn)搜索服務(wù)Zillow公司和云服務(wù)供應(yīng)商ServiceSource),它們?cè)凇吧暾?qǐng)-定價(jià)期間”這項(xiàng)指標(biāo)上的表現(xiàn)最好,分別是93和94天。Groupon提交上市申請(qǐng)后經(jīng)過的日子已經(jīng)超過了這一水平,不過最近有新聞稱,他們可能已“回到”正常軌道”,預(yù)計(jì)將在十月底確定發(fā)行價(jià)(那樣的話相當(dāng)于提交申請(qǐng)后150天)。根據(jù)雅虎財(cái)經(jīng)(Yahoo Finance),Zynga上市被列為“已推遲”,目前已是提交申請(qǐng)后75天。而在旅游搜索領(lǐng)域領(lǐng)先的Kayak公司已經(jīng)提交上市申請(qǐng)301天了——對(duì)任何公司來說這都是危險(xiǎn)的信號(hào)。

????上述可能造成延期的原因中,許多看起來都是外部因素,似乎“無法控制”,但事實(shí)上還是可以從很多方面著手,盡可能縮短“申請(qǐng)-定價(jià)期間”。

????1. 做好準(zhǔn)備之前不要輕率啟動(dòng)上市程序。確信自己的企業(yè)業(yè)績(jī)良好當(dāng)然是題中應(yīng)有之義,除此之外還包括:安排審計(jì)人員再三查證數(shù)據(jù),整頓好財(cái)務(wù)管控,請(qǐng)個(gè)可靠的首席財(cái)務(wù)官和總法務(wù)顧問,確保董事會(huì)鼎力支持??偟膩碚f,要為即將發(fā)生的一切事件做好準(zhǔn)備。最好和其他按時(shí)走完上市程序的公司的掌門人多交流,弄清楚他們都做了哪些準(zhǔn)備工作。

????2. 選一家投行,它得明白你不愿意將“申請(qǐng)-定價(jià)期間”拖得太長。許多投行會(huì)說,這一指標(biāo)無關(guān)緊要??墒?,如果你的公司陷入“已提交上市申請(qǐng)卻未定價(jià)”的窘境,吃虧的還是你自己。投行只是服務(wù)提供商,應(yīng)該由你來告訴他們什么是重要的;而不是相反,你唯他們馬首是瞻。優(yōu)秀的投行應(yīng)當(dāng)對(duì)證券交易委員會(huì)的行事程序了如指掌,甚至有前委員會(huì)人士為其效力。這種人脈確有影響,選擇投行的時(shí)候,應(yīng)該能自己判斷此類因素是否重要。此外,在提交上市申請(qǐng)之前就應(yīng)該弄清聘請(qǐng)的投行是否信任你本人及你的公司。如果提交了S-1申請(qǐng)“之后”,你還得在投行面前為公司辯護(hù),則顯然顛倒了先后順序。

????The table on the left shows the number of days from pricing to filing for some recent IPOs, as well as the days on file for Zynga, Groupon, and Kayak. These four companies had an average pricing-filing span of just over 100 days. Two of the IPOs in which Benchmark was lucky enough to be an investor (Zillow and ServiceSource) had particularly good showing on this "pricing-to-filing" metric with 93 and 94 days respectively. Groupon is starting to move outside this ban, but recent news suggests they may be back "on track" with a target date of late October (this would equate to 150 days on file). Zynga's IPO is listed as "delayed" on Yahoo Finance while standing at 75 days. Kayak, a leader in the travel search space, had been on file for 301 days – a precarious position for any company.

????While many of these potential causes of delay appear external and "out of your control," there are in fact many things you can do to minimize the number of days between filing and pricing.

????1. Don't start the process until you are ready. This certainly includes knowing your business is performing well, but also includes having the auditors ready, having your financials in order, having a strong CFO and general counsel, having your BOD ready to go, and generally being prepared for what is about to happen. Talk to other CEOs who have kept the process on time, and find out how they prepared.

????2. Pick a banker who understands that you are sensitive to filing-pricing timing. Some bankers will tell you this metric is not critical. You own the problem if you are stuck in a filed but un-priced company. You should tell the service provider what is important to you, not the other way around. Great investment bankers have a strong understanding of SEC process, SEC rules, and may even have an ex-SEC representative on staff. These things matter, and you should be able to tell whether or not they matter to your banker. Also, find out before you file if your banker believes in you and your business. If you are defending your business to your banker "after" filing the S-1, you had a clear sequencing problem.







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@關(guān)子臨: 自信也許會(huì)壓倒聰明,演技的好壞也許會(huì)壓倒腦力的強(qiáng)弱,好領(lǐng)導(dǎo)就是循循善誘的人,不獨(dú)裁,而有見地,能讓人心悅誠服。    參加討論>>
@DuoDuopa:彼得原理,是美國學(xué)者勞倫斯彼得在對(duì)組織中人員晉升的相關(guān)現(xiàn)象研究后得出的一個(gè)結(jié)論:在各種組織中,由于習(xí)慣于對(duì)在某個(gè)等級(jí)上稱職的人員進(jìn)行晉升提拔,因而雇員總是趨向于晉升到其不稱職的地位。    參加討論>>
@Bruce的森林:正念,應(yīng)該可以解釋為專注當(dāng)下的事情,而不去想過去這件事是怎么做的,這件事將來會(huì)怎樣。一方面,這種理念可以幫助員工排除雜念,把注意力集中在工作本身,減少壓力,提高創(chuàng)造力。另一方面,這不失為提高員工工作效率的好方法??赡芎笳呤歉鞔驜OSS們更看重的吧。    參加討論>>


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