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????剛剛過去的這個季度，華爾街的賺錢機器看來運轉(zhuǎn)不佳，憂心忡忡的公司和投資者都回避進入資本市場。歐洲和本國交易業(yè)務(wù)的困境甚至可能造成華爾街一些鼎鼎有名的公司出現(xiàn)季度虧損。

????上周銀行業(yè)分析師們終于看清了現(xiàn)實，大幅調(diào)低了原先樂觀的盈利預(yù)期，引發(fā)銀行股一波重挫。鑒于華爾街發(fā)生的所有變化，這本來不應(yīng)該是什么意外。由于歐洲危機未了，銀行業(yè)仍然還在摸索新的“輕風(fēng)險”業(yè)務(wù)模式，2012年銀行類股將繼續(xù)面臨挑戰(zhàn)，但隨著監(jiān)管形勢的明朗以及新的增長機會出現(xiàn)，華爾街有望早日重現(xiàn)光彩。

????由于節(jié)假日集中和年底活動關(guān)系，每年的第四季度華爾街的業(yè)務(wù)都非常清淡。資產(chǎn)管理公司往往會逐漸減少交易量，而公司方面也傾向于推遲到元旦后再公布新的交易。

????但2011年第四季度的業(yè)務(wù)似乎格外慘淡。分析公司Dealogic的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，當季全球投資銀行收入總額預(yù)計僅為139億美元，較上年同期減少37%。由于公司決定延后IPO和增發(fā)計劃，股票部分預(yù)計收入也只有26億美元，較去年同期驟減67%。當季的并購交易收入預(yù)計也有顯著下降，華爾街估計僅收入43億美元，較上年同期縮水約23%。

????投資銀行業(yè)務(wù)淡靜的同時，華爾街銀行的交易部門業(yè)務(wù)也同樣慘淡。分析師們預(yù)計當季華爾街銀行為執(zhí)行更高的資本金要求，縮減了風(fēng)險投資組合。另外，華爾街銀行根據(jù)新規(guī)剝離利潤豐厚的交易部門，預(yù)計也會對當季銀行凈利潤帶來消極影響。

????The Wall Street money-making machine looks to have malfunctioned badly in the last quarter as nervous companies and investors stayed out of the capital markets. Troubles in Europe and on the trading desks also contributed to what could be a loss-making quarter for some of the Street's biggest names.

????Bank analysts finally got the memo last week and drastically slashed their rosy earnings expectations, sending banks shares down sharply. This should have been no surprise given all the changes happening on Wall Street. The banking sector will continue to face headwinds this year as the crisis in Europe persists and the banks tinker with their new "risk-light" business models. But regulatory clarity and new growth opportunities could help Wall Street get its mojo back sooner rather than later.

????The fourth quarter of the year is usually slow for Wall Street given all the holidays and year-end activities. Asset managers usually ratchet back their trading, while companies tend to put off announcing new deals until after the New Year.

????But the fourth quarter of 2011 seems to have been even slower than usual. Global investment banking revenue is expected to total just $13.9 billion for the quarter, down 37% from the same period last year, according to data from Dealogic. The equity side of the business is expected to have brought in just $2.6 billion, down a whopping 67% from last year as companies decided to put off IPOs and secondary offerings. Revenue from mergers and acquisition is also expected to be down markedly in the quarter, generating an estimated $4.3 billion for Wall Street, down around 23% from last year.

????The muted activity in investment banking is expected to be accompanied by an equally weak showing in the banks' trading divisions. Analysts see the banks lowering their risk profiles in the quarter in order to comply with higher capital mandates. The spinning out of the banks' lucrative trading desks, due to new regulations, is also expected to have had a negative impact on the banks' bottom lines last quarter.